Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow’s Challenges

Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow’s Challenges Mary M. Glackin Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007

Outline • Vision and Mission • NOAA Priorities • Opportunities and challenges Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

NOAA’s Vision Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

NOAA’s Mission Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

NOAA Funding Trends Spend Plan ($ in Billions) * *In FY’03, the House did not report or pass an SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced bill total is used here. Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Sustaining Critical Operations NWS NESDIS OAR NOS NMFS NOAA Ship RON BROWN Global Monitoring Division—South Pole Supercomputing System Phased Array Radar DART II Buoy, Argo Floats NOAA’s Line Offices in the US PIWP-3D Orion and Gulfstream Jet Satellite Operations Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Enhancing Climate Monitoring and Research Polar Orbiting Satellite (NOAA M) • NOAA Observations and Research have been key in recent Climate assessments and reports. • 50th Anniversary of the Global Carbon Dioxide Record • NOAA has stepped up our efforts in improved Climate Services • Key Functions • Understand the Past and Current State of the Climate • Advance predictive understanding and Skill about the future state of climate • Assess evolving user needs and context • Communicate • Coordinate and collaborate • Build on our existing capabilities Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Improving Weather Warnings and Forecasts • Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting • 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5%/ year since 1985 • Reduction in track forecast errors by ~33% in last 15 years • Intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year • Hurricane forecast improvement plan under development • Tornado Lead-Time Warning • Lead times increased from 5 to 11 minutes • Accuracy increased from 49% to 75% • Dual Polarization radar underway • Exploring phased array radar technology Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Supporting the U.S. Ocean Action Plan • Ocean Science and Research ($60M) • Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) • Hurricane Hazards & Watershed Influences • Ocean Health Initiative • Protecting and Restoring Marine & Coastal Areas ($38M) • Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument • Marine Debris • Gulf of Mexico Regional Alliance • * Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC) • *West Coast Governor’s Agreement on Ocean Health • *Not funded • Ensuring Sustainable Use of Ocean Resources ($25M) • Magnuson-Stevens Act Reauthorization Implementation • National Offshore Aquaculture Act • Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Act Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Developing a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for Societal Benefit Improve Weather Forecasting Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resource Understand Climate Change Combat Land Degradation Understand Environmental Factors on Human Health Develop Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts Protect and Monitor Water Resources Monitor and Manage Energy Resources U.S. Leadership in Earth Observations Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Balancing Priorities In the Future NPOESS “Smart” WeatherBalloons GOES-R Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy System (CBIBS) AltairUnmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) NOAA’s Environmental Real Time Observation Network (NERON) NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Improved Environmental Modeling NOAA’s Modeling Capabilities are Broad and Expanding Example: Climate Models, OSSE’s Goal: Increase model resolution and complexity: Result: More computationally expensive to run Adding the global carbon cycle makes the model 2x as computationally expensive to run Adding chemistry to address global air quality and climate change makes the model 3x as expensive to run 200 km resolution Current Climate Model 10x more computational power 50 km resolution Short-term Target 4 km resolution Observations Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative • “…warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Climate Change as Emerging Political Imperative (cont.) • Assess evolving user needs and context • Assess Climate, Impacts and Adaptation • Climate Services Development and Delivery Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Research to Practical Applications Improving Hurricane Forecasting Mean Absolute Error of the 1985-2006 NHC Atlantic Intensity and Track Forecasts Track Intensity 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Archiving & Data Stewardship The Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) is NOAA’s premier on-line facility for the distribution of NOAA and DOD meteorological satellite data. Major satellite systems archive growth 2000 - 2020 NPOESS GOES-R Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Positioning NOAA for Success • Partnering • Advanced planning with partners and stakeholders • Research to applications: Taking a proactive approach • Rigorous management of acquisitions • Continued focus on operational service delivery Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow's Challenges

Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow’s Challenges Mary M. Glackin Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIAA National Capital Section, November 29, 2007

Positioning NOAA for Tomorrow’s Challenges