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14-19 and London: an evidence base Gareth Ashcroft

14-19 and London: an evidence base Gareth Ashcroft. The London story. Jointly produced by YPLA and RPG Format specific to London; includes economy and employer skills needs and ‘learner voice’ Regional level analysis with links to Local Authority figures

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14-19 and London: an evidence base Gareth Ashcroft

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  1. 14-19 and London: an evidence baseGareth Ashcroft

  2. The London story • Jointly produced by YPLA and RPG • Format specific to London; includes economy and employer skills needs and ‘learner voice’ • Regional level analysis with links to Local Authority figures • Statistical basis for planning and commissioning education and training for young Londoners • Informed guide on the education, training and employment landscape for young people in London • Starting point for further enquiry Championing Young People’s Learning

  3. How has it been used? • Robust evidence base to support the London SoP & wider young people’s strategy. • Gained strong currency amongst officers working on 14-19 in LAs; downloaded by 31 LAs on Provider Gateway • Format, structure and content of the document have been received well. • Local authorities have arrived at some common conclusions about priorities for London as a result of their interpretation of the data within the Strategic Analysis. • Released online in September following high interest (e.g. GLA and Observatory Steering Group) Championing Young People’s Learning

  4. Which issue created the most interest? Championing Young People’s Learning

  5. Further investigation into 17 yr old participation required… Genuine progression into other education or training (e.g. Apprenticeship)? + Progression into employment? + - Dropout? - Becoming NEET? (4,230 YP NEET from FT Education Aug – Dec 2009) 86% of 17 yr olds in learning V 94% of 16 yr olds in learning Championing Young People’s Learning

  6. Who is in education, employment in training? • 86% of 17 yr. olds in learning compared to 94% 16 yr. olds • Figures suggest approximately 5,000 leave education or training after one year • Significant fall in participation at 17 • especially for maintained schools from 16 to 17 • 9% gap in London: above national av. since 2002 • fall varies across London, from 13% to 2%. Championing Young People’s Learning

  7. School Sixth Form in year retention • 96% of Year 12 learners in 2008/09 completed the year . Fall from 98% in 06/07. Suggests 4% of learners may have left early. • Fall in ‘retention’ in 18 boroughs in 2008/09. Fewer boroughs below regional average in 08/09 compared to 19 in 06/07. • Significant variation by borough; 74% to 110%. • Figure less than 100% may mean pupils left the school during the course of the academic year, or data quality issues. Championing Young People’s Learning

  8. School Sixth Form Year 12 / Year 13 retention • Figures suggest that 10,000 learners (approx 26% of learners) who complete Year 12 are not in Year 13 Summer Census in the following academic year. • Significant variation by borough; drop of 58% to an increase of 11%. • Why? Further exploration needed…progression to other learning, completed studies, dropped out of post 16 education, data quality. • % change Year 12 Summer Census to Year 13 Summer Census Championing Young People’s Learning

  9. NEET continues to fall but high levels remain amongst certain groups of Young People • 10,500 young people NEET in December 2009; 5.3% of the cohort • Significant variation within London; 14 boroughs with NEET above regional average • NEET increases with age • NEET is often higher in boroughs with higher levels of deprivation • Connexion figures suggest a large proportion of teenage mothers are NEET • YP with a learning difficulty and/or disability and who are NEET is increasing • White and Black Caribbean residents have the highest NEET of any ethnic grouping Championing Young People’s Learning

  10. Who are the ‘NEET joiners’? • Av. number of 16-18 year olds NEET = 10,225; 4,230 join from FTE. Rises to 6,000 including WBL, ESF and other Government Supported Training. • Total number of NEET joiners = 19,626; 30% from FTE and GST and 53% ‘currency re-established’. Championing Young People’s Learning

  11. How many NEET joiners have dropped out? • Based on Audit Commission analysis, circa 3,000 NEET joiners may have dropped out of learning Championing Young People’s Learning

  12. Is there a link between SSF and NEET? Figures suggest a link between higher levels of NEET and higher % difference between Year 12 / 13 figures Less evidence of a link between Year 12 ‘in year retention’ and NEET. No of boroughs performing ‘worse’ than the regional average Research suggests London learners have a mean time of 12.1 months before leaving their course; and A/AS/A2 learners are more likely to drop out Not fully conclusive. Further investigation needed. Championing Young People’s Learning

  13. Emerging issues…. • Tackling the 6,000 learners from FTE who become NEET is a key priority. Where exactly do NEET joiners come from? • Value for money – ‘recycled’ learners cost more. Significant impact on public purse and wider social and economic factors. • Importance of local knowledge - one size does not fit all. Understanding curriculum, IAG, identifying progression and dropout are key. • Poor data quality may be distorting picture at institution / borough level. Championing Young People’s Learning

  14. What happened next? • Increasing access to YPLA data: Project Marconi and Hotdesk facility • Identifying further lines of enquiry • Meeting customer need • Provider level core dataset • Developing the approach for 2010-2011 Championing Young People’s Learning

  15. What do our customers want? • User friendly format and evidence based approach • Greater accessibility to YPLA data and intelligence, supplemented by narrative reports identifying key 14-19 evidence • Explore ways of better ‘visualising’ the data • Consider needs of wide ranging 14-19 audience when developing, writing and disseminating the end product • Key areas that require further development are: population projections; success rates, Apprenticeships; Learner Support; Progression Pathways; and Skills supply and the demands of the London economy. Championing Young People’s Learning

  16. The way forward? • National approach with regional flexibility • Three narrative regional reports based on a set of key strategic questions: • Closing the Gap in Participation - July • Closing the Gap in Achievement and Progression - May • Who’s doing what and where? - March • Improving accessibility to data and MI (e.g. LLDD and FE App through Qlikview; Project Marconi evaluation) • Strategy for updating pivots, flat packs, cubes TBC Championing Young People’s Learning

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