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Small area estimation of violent crime victim rates in the Netherlands

Small area estimation of violent crime victim rates in the Netherlands. Bart Buelens, Thijs Benschop Statistics Netherlands NTTS, Brussels Feb 2009. National Safety Monitor (NSM). Crime, satisfaction with police, feelings of unsafety

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Small area estimation of violent crime victim rates in the Netherlands

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  1. Small area estimation of violent crime victim rates in the Netherlands Bart Buelens, Thijs Benschop Statistics Netherlands NTTS, Brussels Feb 2009

  2. National Safety Monitor (NSM) • Crime, satisfaction with police, feelings of unsafety • Annual survey conducted in 1st quarter among people aged 15+ living in NL • Mixed mode telephone – personal interviews • Target response 750 per Police Zone (PZ) • Equal fractions per municipality in each PZ • 25 PZs, target pop size approx. 13 mln. • sample size approx. 19,000

  3. NSM estimation • Generalized regression estimator (GREG) • Age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, income, household size, urbanisation Publication at various levels: • national • 5 clusters of police zones ~ urbanization • police zones high variance

  4. Violent crime victim rate • victim at least once in last 12 months, of • physical assaults, sexual offences, intentional threats • using 2007 survey • higher or lower than country-wide average? • better or worse than last year?

  5. Small area estimation • PZs are “small areas”: design based estimates not precise enough due to small sample size • Use models to borrow strength from other PZs • Area level linear mixed model • matching of register and survey data problematic so no unit level models possible at this stage

  6. Linear Mixed Model (Fay-Herriot) • Estimation using EBLUP (Rao 2003)

  7. Covariates • Known for all PZs (from registers) • Police Register of Reported Offences • Violent crimes, property crimes, vandalism, traffic offences • Municipal Administration • Age, ethnicity, (gender) • Address density

  8. Model selection • Which model is best? • Which measure is best?

  9. Model selection results

  10. Results • Model estimates within margins of direct • Model estimates have lower margins

  11. Conclusions & future work • Model based SAE: improved precision • Unit level models: matching of register and survey data required • Survey variables other than victim rates • Temporal change, stability • New Integral Safety Monitor with local oversampling: possibilities using SAE methods

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