Michiko Masutani

1. Progress in Joint OSSEs Internationally collaborative Full OSSEs sharing the same Nature Run New High Resolution Nature Runs Michiko Masutani NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/THORPEX/osse

2. NOAA-NASA and International OSSEs Team OSSEs: Observing Systems Simulation Experiments JCSDA: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation SWA: Simpson Weather Associates ESRL: Earth System Research Laboratory(formerly FSL, CDC, ETL) NCEP: Michiko Masutani, John S. Woollen, Yucheng Song, Daryl Kleist, Stephen J. Lord, Zoltan Toth JCSDA: Lars Peter Riishojgaard (NASA/GFSC), Fuzhong Weng (NESDIS) NESDIS: Haibing Sun, Tong Zhu, Sid Boukabara, Min-Jeong Kim SWA: G. David Emmitt, Sidney A. Wood, Steven Greco NASA/GFSC: Ron Errico, Emily Liu, Oreste Reale, Joe Terry, Juan Juseum, Gail McConaughy , Runhua Yang, Chaojiao Sun NOAA/ESRL:Tom Schlatter, Yuanfu Xie, Nikki Prive, Dezso Devenyi, Steve Weygandt ECMWF: Erik Andersson KNMI: Ad Stoffelen, Gert-Jan Marseille MSU/GRI: Valentine Anantharaj, Chris Hill, Pat Fitzpatrick,

3. OSSEs will help to design and configuration of the new instruments OSSE will provide guideline for development in Data assimilation systems OSSEs are labour intensive project. Effective collaboration and effective distribution of resources will significantly reduce the cost. This will also speed up the performance of OSSEs and enhance the credibility of the results. The date impact depends on how the data is handled in the DA system.

4. U 200 hPa OSSEs can provide recommendation for DAS 5 500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L64 fcst L64 anl&fcst 500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L28 fcst 500km RaobT62L28 anal & fcst L64 anl L28 fcst 1000km RaobT170L42 analT62L28 fcst CTL 1000km RaobT62L28 anal & fcst T 200 hPa L64 anl&fcst 500km obs T170 L42 model High density observation give better analysis but it could cause poor forecast High density observations give a better analysis but could cause a poor forecast Increasing the vertical resolution was important for high density observations L64 anl L28 fcst

5. Nature Run: Serves as a true atmosphere for OSSEs Preparation of the Nature Run and simulation of basic observations consume a significant amount of resources. If different NRs are used by various DAs, it is hard to compare the results. Need one good new Nature Run which will be used by many OSSEs including regional data assimilation. Share the simulated data to compare the OSSE results by various DA systems to gain confidence in results.

6. New Nature Run by ECMWFBased on Recommendations by JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO, SWA, NESDIS, ESRL Low Resolution Nature Run Spectral resolution : T511 Vertical levels: L91 3 hourly dump Initial conditions: 12Z May 1st, 2005 Ends at: 0Z Jun 1,2006 Daily SST and ICE: provided by NCEP Model: Version cy31r1 Completed in July 2006, rerun October 2006 Two High Resolution Nature Run 35 days long Hurricane season: Starting at 12z September 27,2005, Convective precipitation over US: starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 resolution, 91 levels, one hourly dump Get initial conditions from T511 NR

7. Archive and Distribution To be archived in the MARS systemon the THORPEX server at ECMWF Accessed by external users expver=etwu Copies for US are available to designated users & users known to ECMWF Redistribution right not given (Contact Michiko Masutani michiko.masutani@noaa.gov) To be available from NASA/GSFC/SIVO and THORPEX server at NCAR Proposed subset of the data: The complete surface data in reduced Gaussian (N256, N400), Complete (1x1, 0.5x0.5)pressure level data Complete (1x1,0.5x0.5) isentropic data A few days worth model level data to be posted for online access,  The complete model level data (2.4TB) must be sent using hard disks. Simulated observations. Some OSSE results Supplemental low resolution regular lat lon data Currently available from NCEP ftp server. 1degx1deg for T511 NR, 0.5degx0.5deg for T799 NR Pressure level data:31 levels Potential temperature level data: 315,330,350,370,530K Selected time series for surface data: Convective precip, Large scale precip, MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp

8. Evaluation Diagnostics of the T511 Nature run(1x1 resolution data) Only TCLs having a center pressure of less than 1000 hPa in the 1x1 fields and 900 hPa vorticity greater than 3x10-4 s-1 are considered Vertical structure of a HL vortex shows, even at the degraded resolution of 1 deg, a distinct eye-like feature and a very prominent warm core. Structure even more impressive than the system observed in August. Low-level wind speed exceeds 55 m/s

9. THE SOUTH AMERICAN LOW LEVEL JETT511 NR 1x1 deg dataJuan Carlos Jusem The EC-nature run reproduces very well two outstanding characteristics of the LLJ: (a) Its permanence during the whole year, and (b) Its peak intensity during night hours. Two prominent features of the of the LLJ are very well simulated by EC-NR: (a) its persistence all year round and (b) its peak intensity at night.

10. Preliminary concluding remarks on the African Monson region and tropical Atlantic • A synoptic assessment of the NR over the AM region and the tropical Atlantic shows an overall very realistic African Monsoon, AEJ and wave activity • In addition to the 2 `major’ systems with a full hurricane-like development up to Aug 31st , at least other 9 `strong’ systems (for 1x1 res.) develop during September and October • Several weaker tropical and sub-tropical systems are also present • In spite of a tendency of creating several early recurvers, it can be stated that the NR, given the resolution limitation, does have a good representativeness of tropical cyclone track variability in the Atlantic, as it would occur in an active season • This Nature Run seems to represent a very promising tool to perform OSSEs over the tropical Atlantic

11. CURRENT and FUTURE WORK at NASA GSFC (GLA and SIVO) on the NR validation • Comprehensive statistics on midlatitude cyclone activity have been performed (J. Terry) • Comprehensive statistics on precipitation (J.C. Jusem) are in progress and will be presented in the next meeting together with an assessment of the South American monsoon • Analysis of tropical weather over Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon regions with emphasis on the Somali Jet, monsoon onset and breaks, tropical depressions, is being completed • An assessment of the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone season is also being completed • Southern Hemisphere and Western Pacific tropical weather systems will be investigated in the near future

12. Comparison of zonal mean zonal wind jet maxima, NR and ECMWF analysis, Northern Hemisphere By Nikki Prive, ESRL blue – ECMWF green star – Nature Run Nikki Prive also presented realistic Rossby wave and many good storm to test T-PARC experiments

13. T799 91 level Nature run 35 day long hourly dump 1) Hurricane season (completed on 7/2) T799OCT05 Initial condition from T511 at 12z September 27,2005 End at 12 z November 1st, 2005 One strong hurricane over Atlantic. Another one in central Pacific 2) Spring thunder storm season (Completed on 7/9) T799APR06 Initial condition from T511 at 12z April 10, 2006 End at 12 z May 15, 2006 Good storm over Japan Several thunder storms over US Four TC in Southern hemisphere

14. Quick look using 1degree data Min MSLP T799 OCT05 period T511 T799 By Michiko Masutani

15. Quick look using 1degree data Convective Precipitation 3 hour mean 12z-15Z Oct05 2005 T511 T799 By Michiko Masutani

16. Quick look using 1degree data Tropical cyclone in T799NR APR06 T799 By Juan Carlos Jusem

17. Quick look using 1degree data Min MSLP T799 APR06 period T511 T799 By Michiko Masutani

18. Convective Precipitation in Spring Quick look using 3 hour mean 1degree data T511 06Z Apr 25, 2006 T799 01Z May 2, 2005 By Michiko Masutani

19. 1x1 fields for quick look We have received MSLP and CP Posted at ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mmasutani/T799NR/OCT05 ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mmasutani/T799NR/APR06 Selected surface data in 1x1 degree for T511 NR and T799 MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp Four 1TB disks are being written at ECMWF

20. Pre cursor assimilation Conduct data assimilation for entire T511NR period (13 month) with limited simulated data set. Include data which can be simulated by simple interpolation (prepbufr) RAOB, Air Craft, Aircar, Sat wind DA with spectral resolution T62 with 64 level model This will to test the OSSE system. The results could provide initial condition for other OSSEs.

21. Radiance Simulation System for OSSELars-Peter Riigeojgaard, Emily Liu, Ron Errico, Runhua Yang(NASA/GSFC/GMAO)Tong Zhu, Haibing Sun, Sid Boukabara, Fuzhong Weng(NOAA/NESDIS) Other resources and/or advisors Walter Wolf, Paul Van Delst, Chris Barnet, Yong Han, Mark Liu, David Groff, Tom Kleespies,(JCSDA);Erik Andersson (ECMWF); Roger Saunders (Met Office) GOESR,NPOESS,ESA Existing instruments experiments must be simulated for control and calibration

22. Definition of OSSE • There are many type of simulation experiments. Any OSSEs must be presented with their own limitations. Avoid presenting results beyond its limitations. • We have to call our OSSE as Full OSSE to avoid confusion. • Through full OSSEs, impact on forecast can be evaluated • Only full OSSE can provide detail information about configuration of observing systems. • Identical twin experiments • It is worth while to try identical twin experiments to understand model error. • Identical twin OSSEs can be only used for illustration only • ECMWF offered to perform identical twin OSSEs if there is specific goal.

23. Comments on regional OSSE • Nesting other model and starting from other model fields produce noise. Regional NR must provide the estimate of the noise produced from lateral and initial conditions. • 1km resolution data does not have impact on only 1km scale. That has to give impact on synoptic scale and planetary scale event. Many low quality data can produce one high quality data using QC and super-obbing. Effective resolution is much larger than 1km. • Regional analysis using same global Nature run with regional analysis and model is worth while to try out because regional analysis is done operationally.  • Atmospheric model with a few km resolution require much more development. Waiting for a few km resolution global model may be better

24. Intergradations of regional OSSE effort to Joint OSSEs • Most of OSSEs in global DAS will be done les than T170 resolution. There are many regional experiments to be done between T170 and T799 resolution. • Good hurricanes in T799 run will serve another five years of OSSEs even for regional DAS Joint OSSE will provide criteria of next generation of the super high resolution Nature run for regional OSSEs

25. The Joint OSSE Nature runs will be available to research and educational community. List of users must be provided to ECMWF. Redistribution right not given Complete data ECMWF,NCEP,ESRL,NASA Verification data sent to JMA, NCAR, SWA, and more Make OSSE available to wide research community by providing low res verification data and simulation obs.

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