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PDF/READ/DOWNLOAD DOWNLOAD/PDF Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predict

"20 minutes ago - COPY LINK TO DOWNLOAD : https://blipobispolias.blogspot.com/?now=0804136718 | [PDF READ ONLINE] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction | NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER &#8226 NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST&nbsp&#8220The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's&nbspThinking, Fast and Slow.&#8221&#8212Jason Zweig,&nbspThe&nbspWall Street Journal &nbsp Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week&#8217s meals. Unf

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PDF/READ/DOWNLOAD DOWNLOAD/PDF Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predict

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  3. PDF/READ/DOWNLOAD Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction DESCRIPTION 5 minutes ago - COPY LINK TO DOWNLOAD : https://blipobispolias.blogspot.com/?now=0804136696 | [PDF READ ONLINE] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction | NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER &#8226NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST&nbsp#8220The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's&nbspThiking, Fast and Slow.&#8221#8212Jason Zweig,&nbspThenbspWall Street Journal &nbspEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week&#8217smeals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts&#8217predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? &nbspIn Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people&#8212inluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer&#8212wh set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They&#8217vebeaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They&#8217veeven beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are &quotsuprforecasters.&quot&nbspIn this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden&#8217scompound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn&#8217trequire powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future&#8212whther in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life&#8212an is destined to become a modern classic.

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