“Towards a Post-Ethnic Future”

1. “Towards a Post-Ethnic Future” Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Irvine Senior Fellow, New America Foundation, CRE High Level Conference Park City, Utah July 15, 2006

2. Essence of Post-Ethnic Vision “America is the Race of Races” Walt Whitman,Leaves of Grass, 1855

3. Post-Ethnic Perspectives • New immigrant waves have always unsettled cultural norms; reshaped economic and political life • Over time, a new synthesis emerged, with addition of newcomers • Current wave unprecedented in diversity • Newcomers reshaping economy, society • Long-term: Emergence of a new, post-ethnic, post-racial perspective

4. The First Wave 1640-1840 • Germans constituted close to a majority in colonial Pennsylvania • Non-English accounted for one-third of signers of Declaration of Independence • American Revolution accelerated disestablishment of Anglican Church and greater religious diversity

5. Colonial Observations: “Why should Pennsylvania, founded by the English, be becoming a Colony of Aliens, who will shortly be so numerous as to Germanize us instead of our Anglifying them? -Benjamin Franklin

6. Early American Observations: “…hordes of wild Irishmen [and] the turbulent and disorderly of all parts of the world [who] come here with a view to disturb our tranquility…” -Harrison Otis of Massachusetts calling for a ban on immigration for Europe

7. Second Wave Immigration (1840-1880) • Massive wave of German and Irish immigration • Key to settlement of many eastern cities as well as the Midwest • Reaction: Rise of Know-Nothing Movement • Immigrants spark industrial revolution, both providing labor and expertise

8. Third Wave Immigration (1880-1920) • Highest percentage of foreign born population • New large immigration from outside Western Europe, predominately Italy, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, as well as Asia • New immigrants dominate politics in many big cities, spark new industries such as garments, movies, intensive agriculture, fishing and franchise banking

9. Third Wave Reactions • Powerful nativist reaction; what Henry James called “this sense of dispossession” for old Anglo elite • Italians described in 1875 by New York Times as “the Chinese of Europe”, adding it was “perhaps hopeless to civilize , or keeping them in order, except by the arm of the law”

10. Science Gets into the Act Psychologist Henry Goddard examining immigrants at Ellis Island, 1912 87% of Russians, 80% of Hungarians, 79% of Italians, 83% of Jews classified as “feeble-minded”

11. The Current Wave (1970-today) is more of the same and even more… • Immigrants Drive Next 100 Million by 2050…key to divergence from Europe, east Asia • Ethnic diversity has become wider and deeper • Immigrants spark revival in urban and some suburban economies • Economy more complex and more difficult for less skilled immigrants • Mass media, telecommunications popular culture accelerate cultural mixture yet allow for maintenance of cultural ties abroad • Long term Perspective: Post-ethnic future

12. Immigration Is Driving American Demography 64% Increase U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Population Estimates

13. Immigrants and Their Offspring Drove Over Half of the Country’s Growth During the 1990’s… Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14. More Crowding to Come: US Population Growth 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

15. Minorities Drive the Next 100 Million Source: McLeod (1996)

16. Immigrants help drive higher birthratesPlunging Birthrates/Aging Populations Birth Rates per 1000 Source – indexmundi.com

17. Healthier Long Term Demographics—a Younger FuturePopulation Growth Rates, 2004

18. Getting Older Slower Population Over 65 Source: CIA

19. In 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000. 58.9 25.7 6.4 West Total Northeast South Midwest Source: Toward a New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America, p.v

20. Regional Impact • Strong Presence in key urban areas • Rapid Movement into suburbs • Increasing presence in South, Intermountain West and other non-traditional immigrant areas

21. Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, April 1, 1990 to April 1, 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File and U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 Census

22. “Majority Minority” States

23. Hispanic Magnet States In the U.S. , 2000 Census

24. 1. Los Angeles 1,819,370 2. New York 992,185 3. Chicago 600,810 4. Dallas 594,836 5. Houston 575,098 6. Miami 501,543 1990 - 2000 Greatest Hispanic Gainers Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

25. Growth by Age, 2000-2010 Source: William H. Frey

26. Up-and-Coming Hispanic Growth Magnets 2000 -- Populations greater than 50,000 Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

27. The New Melting PotRanked by Percentage Change of Immigrants, 1994-99

28. North CarolinaNet Population Change by Race, 1990-2000

29. U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas Millions 1950-1999 People (millions)

30. Minorities to suburbs Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000

31. The San Fernando Valley is now the Mestizo Valley.

32. Latinos Dominate New Demographics in the Inland Empire of California Source: Census 2000 analyzed by the Social Science Data Analysis Network (SSDAN).

33. Demographic Change in Bergen-Passaic

34. Diversity in Houston’s fast growing suburbs United States Fort Bend County, Texas Source: U.S. Census

35. Economic Impacts of New Immigration • Fast-growing retail markets • The New American Family • Increase in home ownership • Strong in high-wage and low-wage economies • Possible impact on class dynamics

36. United States $10,882 1 $4,326 2 Japan $2,401 3 Germany $1,795 4 United Kingdom France 5 $1,748 U.S. Ethnic $1,685 (6) Italy $1,466 6 China $1,410 7 If the U.S. ethnic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the 6th largest national economy in the world Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rank Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”

37. (1) $653 U.S. Hispanic $626 Mexico 10 $492 15 Brazil $130 35 Argentina $85 40 Venezuela $78 Colombia 44 $72 Chile 46 Peru $61 51 If the U.S. Hispanic purchasing power was represented separately, it would be the largest Latin American economy in the world. Gross Product Comparisons, 2003 (in Billions) World rank Source: World Bank Indicators database, World Bank, September 2004 and Selig Center for Economic Growth, University of Georgia “The Multicultural Economy 2003”

38. African American U.S. Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander Ethnic Purchasing Power More Than Doubled Since 1990 Spending Power by Ethnic Groups (in Billions) 1990 – 2004 with 2009 projections Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia (2004)

39. In Short: Latinos and other immigrants are on their way to reaching the American Mainstream • However, there are challenges to greater entryway into mainstream American society. • Among the most serious challenges is achieving homeownership and business ownership—the cornerstone of the American Dream. • Political issues also abound, from overcoming the traditional black/white racial politics to the reaction to 9-11

40. Families on the Rise Analysis by William Frey

41. Whose Kids?Traditional Family Households Analysis by William Frey

42. Strong Household Growth Has Driven the Increase in Minority Homeowners Since 1994 Millions of Homeowners

43. Top Ten Home-Buyer Surnames (2000) Northern California Southern California Los Angeles County • Nguyen • Wong • Lee • Chen • Tran • Johnson • Smith • Singh • Garcia • Martinez • Garcia • Hernandez • Lopez • Martinez • Smith • Gonzalez • Rodriguez • Lee • Kim • Johnson • Garcia • Lee • Rodriguez • Kim • Hernandez • Lopez • Gonzalez • Martinez • Smith • Perez Source: California Association of REALTORS

44. Fewer than half of California’s Latino-headed households owned their own homes (41%). The national average is 68%. California's Homeownership Rates by Ethnicity (2000) Source: California Budget Project analysis of the Current Population Survey 2000

45. Class Distinctions:Median Household Income, 1999 Earnings (in Thousands) Source: William H. Frey; Milken Institute

46. Educational Attainment by RaceAge 25-64, Los Angeles Metro White Black Asian Hispanic Less than High School High School Grad Some College College Grad

47. Towards the Future: Post-Ethnic America • Rapid Growth of Mixed Race couples particularly with 2nd Generation • Latinos and Asians “mess up” being white • Universal trend towards English dominance • Cultural values overwhelm ethnic ones • America emerges, intact, just more mestizo in its culture

48. When the kids get together…something happens… • Mixed race designation is officially at 1.3 percent • But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation • Mixed race portion of population should explode over the next decade

49. Percentage of Marriages That Are Mixed Race

50. Breakout of Mixed-Race Combinations in Selected States