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Solving the Climate and Energy Problem

Solving the Climate and Energy Problem. Stephen W. Pacala Petrie Chair in Ecology Director, Princeton Environmental Institute April 2006. Surface Air Warming (°F). 2xCO 2 Climate. 4xCO 2 Climate. GFDL Model. Definitive Against. Definitive For. Uncertain.

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Solving the Climate and Energy Problem

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  1. Solving the Climate and Energy Problem Stephen W. Pacala Petrie Chair in Ecology Director, Princeton Environmental Institute April 2006

  2. Surface Air Warming (°F) 2xCO2 Climate 4xCO2 Climate GFDL Model

  3. Definitive Against Definitive For Uncertain Evidence of Global Warming * Climate change in the past * * Theory and models Current records

  4. Monsters Behind the Door • Ocean Circulation • Hurricanes • Sahel Drought • Ice Sheets

  5. Instability of Ocean Circulation Manabe and Stouffer

  6. Increasing Hurricane Intensity Source: Knutson and Tuleya 2004, Journal of Climate 17, 3477-3495

  7. Drought in the Sahel (Held et al. 2006)

  8. Ice Sheet Instability (Oppenheimer et al. 2004)

  9. Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable most available alternatives. (PV is an exception.) $100/tC $100/tC is approximately the October 2005 EU trading price. Source: Robert Socolow

  10. Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system… • The Oil Problem (OP) • The Air Pollution Problem (APP) • The Climate Problem (CP)

  11. Source: James D. Hamilton

  12. Economic Benefits of Reduced Volatility • ~ 1% of GDP or ~ 100 Billion Dollars/Y Source: Richard Tol

  13. Costs of Iraq, Afghanistan and Enhanced Security in Billions of US Dollars (4 Years) • Iraq 309 • Afganistan 99 • Enhanced Security 24 • Other 45 • Total 477 • Time Frame FY 2002-2005 • Source Congressional Research Service Report Steve Kosiak

  14. Incremental Costs Since 9/11 • Grand Total, Iraq • DoD costs: $585 billion • Non-DoD assistance: $24 billion • VA costs: $77-179 billion • Brain injuries: $14-35 billion • Interest: $98-386 billion • Total: $798-1,209 billion • Stiglitz • Direct costs: $839-1,189 billion • Macroeconomic: $187-1,050 billion • Total: $1,026-2,239 billion Source: Steve Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis

  15. Estimated Deaths Per Year from Air Pollution US – 130,000 World – >3,000,000 Source: The Skeptical Environmentalist pp. 168, 182 @ $2.5 million per life, US cost is $ 330 billion/y

  16. Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system… Do we have the technological know-how to construct an energy system that would solve all three problems? • The Oil Problem (OP) • The Air Pollution Problem (APP) • The Climate Problem (CP)

  17. Carbon Capture Carbon Storage Carbon Science Carbon Policy Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton, 2001-2010 $21,150,000 funding from BP and Ford.

  18. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol. 305 968-972 August 13, 2004

  19. Past Emissions Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 Historical emissions 7 1.9  0 2106 1956 2006 2056

  20. The Stabilization Triangle Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 Currently projected path = “ramp” Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal O Historical emissions 7 Flatpath 1.9  0 2106 1956 2006 2056

  21. 21 Business As Usual GtC/yr (530) (750) 14 Ramp = Delay Stabilization triangle  850 ppm Historical emissions (470) 7 Flat = Act Now  500 ppm (850) (320) (500) (500) 1.9 (500) 2206 2156 1956 2006 2056 2106 The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling (details) (380) (850) Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earth’s atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC.

  22. The Demography of Capital Historic emissions, all uses 2003-2030 power-plant lifetime CO2 commitments WEO-2004 Reference Scenario. Lifetime in years: coal 60, gas 40, oil 20. Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock: not only new power plants, but also new buildings. Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

  23. Wedges Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 14 GtC/y Currently projected path Seven “wedges” O Historical emissions 7 GtC/y 7 Flatpath 1.9  0 2106 1956 2006 2056

  24. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years • Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

  25. Filling the Triangle With Technologies Already in the Marketplace at Industrial Scale

  26. Revolutionary Technology: Fusion

  27. Revolutionary Technology: Artificial Photosynthesis

  28. Wedges OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP CP EFFICIENCY • Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY • Natural gas for coal • Power from coal or gas with CCS • Nuclear power • Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS • Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage • Biofuels • Hydrogen • from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage • from nuclear energy • from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY • Grid-charged batteries for transport • Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS • Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) • Agricultural soils

  29. Efficiency and Conservation transport buildings power industry Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. lifestyle

  30. Efficiency in transport Cost = negative to $2000 - $3000 per car (hybrid Prius). Fuel savings ~150 gallons per year = emissions savings of ~0.5 tC/yr =carbon cost > $2/gal ! Effort needed for 1 wedge: 2 billion gasoline and diesel cars (10,000 miles/car-yr) at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg 500 million cars now. Photos courtesy of Ford, WMATA, Washington State Ridesharing Organization

  31. Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power. Nuclear Electricity Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge. Graphic courtesy of NRC

  32. Power with Carbon Capture and Storage Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants. Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

  33. Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: 3500 In Salahs or Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr 100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Sleipner project, offshore Norway Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

  34. King Coal C Partial Combustion CO + H2O Shift Reaction Best CO/H Ratio For Liquid Fuels CO, H2 H2O, CO2 , H2 CO2 Complete the Shift Reaction , Turbine Syngas Reactor Turbine Hydrogen Electricity Liquid Fuels Geologic Storage Hydrogen Cars IGCC APP OP OP,APP OP,APP CP

  35. New Builds by BP DF-2 announced February 2006. Coke to hydrogen to >500 Megawatts electricity. ~ One million tons per year of CO2 to spent Californian oil reservoirs. DF-1 announced June 2006. Natural gas to hydrogen to 350 Megawatts of electricity. ~One million tons per year of CO2 to a spent oil reservoir in the North Sea. En Salah. One million tons per year CO2 sequestration project.

  36. FutureGen, DF-1, DF-2

  37. The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant • Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in each of two formations. • Assumptions: • 10% porosity • 1/3 of pore space accessed • 60 m total vertical height for the two formations. • Note: Plant is still young.

  38. Shallow-zone Effects • Unsaturated Soils • Groundwater Resources • Numerical Simulations • Analytical Solutions Well-leakage dynamics Flow Dynamics • Spatial Locations • Well Properties • Cement Degradation CO2 Injection and Leakage Pathways Carbon Storage

  39. Teapot Dome, Wyoming

  40. Wind Electricity • Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: • One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. • Today: 40,000 MW (2%) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

  41. Wind Hydrogen • Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: • H2 instead of gasoline or diesel in 2 billion 60 mpg vehicles • Two million 2 MW windmills • Twice as many windmills as for a wedge of wind electricity • Today: 40,000 MW (1%) • Assumes the H2 fuels 100-mpg cars Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

  42. Solar Electricity • Effort needed for 1 wedge: • Install 40 GWpeak each year • 2 GWpeak in place today, rate of production growing at 20%/yr (slice requires 50 years at 15%). • 2 million hectares dedicated use by 2054 = 2 m2 per person. Graphics courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program Cost = expensive (2X-40X other electricity but declining at 10% per year).

  43. Biofuels Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland) Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_

  44. Natural Stocks Forests Soils Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Elimination of tropical deforestation and Rehabilitation of 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge: Conservation tillage on all cropland Photo: SUNY Stonybrook Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO

  45. Wedges OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP OP,APP,CP CP EFFICIENCY • Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY • Natural gas for coal • Power from coal or gas with carbon capture and storage • Nuclear power • Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal. DECARBONIZED FUELS • Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage • Biofuels • Hydrogen • from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage • from nuclear energy • from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY • Grid-charged batteries for transport • Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers NATURAL SINKS • Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations) • Agricultural soils

  46. Three Interdependent Problems • The Oil Problem (OP) • ~ $100 billion /y for Iraq and ~$100 billion /y for oil price shocks • The Air Pollution Problem (APP) • ~ $100 billion /y for air pollution • The Climate Problem (CP) • ~ $100 billion/y to solve the problem

  47. Conclusions What is needed is a national policy designed to solve the oil problem, the air pollution problem, and the climate problem. We already possess cost-effective technologies for the next fifty years, if costs are seen in the context of what we are already paying. The solution will only get cheaper, as investment elicits industrial R&D and new innovation.

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