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Optimal vaccination strategies against Bluetongue in Denmark

Optimal vaccination strategies against Bluetongue in Denmark. Kaare Græsbøll Technical University of Denmark (DTU) GEOVET - August 2013 Claes Enøe René Bødker Lasse Engbo Christiansen. Overview. Introduction: What is bluetongue? Model: Key aspects and the tested scenarios. Results:

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Optimal vaccination strategies against Bluetongue in Denmark

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  1. Optimal vaccination strategies against Bluetongue in Denmark Kaare Græsbøll Technical University of Denmark (DTU) GEOVET - August 2013 Claes Enøe René Bødker Lasse Engbo Christiansen

  2. Overview • Introduction: • What is bluetongue? • Model: • Key aspects and the tested scenarios. • Results: • Doses, herd visits, and a little economics. • Discussion: • Best strategy?

  3. Bluetongue – a vector borne disease • Relies on a Culicoides (biting midge) vector Figure reproduced from Wilson, Darpel & Mellor (2008), PLoS Biology 6(8):e210; http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0060210. Reproduced under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CCAL2.5).

  4. Bluetongue virus • 26 serotypes • Infects ruminants (cattle, sheep, goats, …) • Symptoms: fever, swollen head, blue tongue, decrease in milk production, drooling, lameness… • Prevention: Vaccination, Protection Zones, Movement restrictions • Costs: northern Europe 2006 – 2010: • > 1 billion € Fao.org Institute of Animal Health UK

  5. Bluetongue virus: spatial extent Figure by: Tabachnick, W J (2010) Reproduced under an open access license. Taken from Journal of Experimental Biology

  6. Model visualisation

  7. Model visualisation

  8. Model visualisation

  9. Model visualisation

  10. 1 Exposed 1 2 2 …… …… death Exposed n-1 Infectious ñ-1 n ñ Recovered The infection model host - SEIR vector - SEI Susceptible Susceptible Infectious Adaptation from: A modeling framework to describe the transmission of Bluetongue virus within and between farms in Great Britain. Authors: C. Szmaragd, A.J. Wilson, S. Carpenter, J.L.N. Wood, P.S. Mellor, S. Gubbins

  11. Pasture areas in Denmark

  12. Pasture areas in Denmark • Four cattle distribution scenarios: • Stabled • Pasture • Pasture // Size • Pasture // Size // Dairy

  13. Initialisation scenarios – cattle density Cattle / km2

  14. Initialisation scenarios – cattle density Init M Init D Init L

  15. Vaccination strategies

  16. Fraction of cattle to vaccinate to keep epidemic below 1000 affected cattle All farms Random farms Large farms first Small farms first Nearest Neighbour Pasture Southern Jutland Distance to border P: RH: L: S: NN: G: SJ: D2B:

  17. Fraction of cattle to vaccinate to keep epidemic below 1000 affected cattle All farms Random farms Large farms first Small farms first Nearest Neighbour Pasture Southern Jutland Distance to border P: RH: L: S: NN: G: SJ: D2B:

  18. Fraction of cattle to vaccinate All farms Random farms Large farms first Small farms first Nearest Neighbour Pasture Southern Jutland Distance to border P: RH: L: S: NN: G: SJ: D2B:

  19. Fraction of farmsto vaccinate All farms Random farms Large farms first Small farms first Nearest Neighbour Pasture Southern Jutland Distance to border P: RH: L: S: NN: G: SJ: D2B:

  20. Indexed prices

  21. Surprising variety

  22. Trends Smaller epidemic Smaller epidemic => more doses => L strategy is cheapest Larger epidemic => Fewer doses => G and S strategies are cheapest Regional strategies may be optimal Init D Init M Init L

  23. Acknowledgements Partners: Knowledge Centre for Agriculture, Cattle Danish Agriculture and Food Council Danish Meteorological Institute Aarhus University Funding: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries

  24. Thank you

  25. Indexed prices

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