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2022 PC1-3 – High Gas Price Sensitivity

Study Results High Gas Sensitivity Low Gas Sensitivity High High Gas Sensitivity Low Low Gas Sensitivity.

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2022 PC1-3 – High Gas Price Sensitivity

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  1. Study ResultsHigh Gas SensitivityLow Gas SensitivityHigh High Gas SensitivityLow Low Gas Sensitivity This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the results of how production cost, generation dispactch, and transmission utilization differ from the Common Case and a result of different gas prices.

  2. 2022 PC1-3 – High Gas Price Sensitivity • Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are greater than assumed in the Common Case (CC)? • Change to starting input assumptions: • Loads – none • Transmission System – None • Generation – Henry Hub gas price increased from $5.43 to $9.50 ($2012), 175% of CC price • Results follow…

  3. 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation (MWh) GWh

  4. 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

  5. 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

  6. 2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common Case >5% Indicated in Red P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P66 COI *NEW* P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE

  7. Study ResultsLow Gas Sensitivity

  8. 2022 PC1-4a – Low Gas Price Sensitivity • Central Question: How does production cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are less than assumed in the Common Case (CC)? • Change to starting input assumptions: • Loads – none • Transmission System – None • Generation – Henry Hub gas price decreased from $5.43 to $4.07 ($2012), 75% of CC price • Results follow…

  9. 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation (MWh) GWh

  10. 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

  11. 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

  12. 2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization Most Heavily Utilized Paths Increases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red P01 Alberta-British Columbia P03 Northwest-British Columbia P08 Montana to Northwest P11 West of Crossover P10 West of Colstrip P29 Intermountain-Gonder P27 IPP DC Line P60 Inyo-Control P26 Northern-Southern California P61 Lugo-Victorville *NEW* P47 – Southern New Mexico P45 SDG&E-CFE

  13. Questions or thoughts on this study?

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