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Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective

Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective. May 24, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO. Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension. 1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration

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Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism : Regional Perspective

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  1. Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective May 24, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

  2. Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension 1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration 3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia 4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit 5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 6) May 24 Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Regional Perspective

  3. Review 1) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present) • Strategic Circumstances • US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia • Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated • Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation • Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

  4. Review 2) New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

  5. Terrorism as a National Security Threat • September 11, 2001 • World Trade Center Bldg.（NYC） • Department of Defense (Washington DC) • More than 3000 had died • Definition of “War” • “More than 1000 dead in a conbat” • Rhetric of “War against Terror”

  6. The New Age of Terrorism • New Trends of Terrorism • Terrorism has become bloodier. • Terrorist have developed new financial resources, so that they are less dependent on state sponsors. • Terrorists have evolved new model of organization. • Terrorists can now wage global campaigns. • Terrorists have effectively exploited new communications technologies. • Some terrorists have moved beyond tactics to strategy, although none of them have achieved their stated long range goals. ― Brian Jenkins, “The New Age of Terrorism” (RAND, 2006)

  7. Terrorism has become bloodier DeathEventSuspect 3000+ NYC/Washington DC (2001) Al-Qaeda 477 Iran Avadan Arson (1979) Anti-Govt Group 412 Massacre in Algeria (1997) GIA 270 Pan-Am 103 Bombing (1988) Libya 241 Beirut US Marine Corp (1983) Islamic Front 223 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda 168 Oklahoma Bldg (1995) Mcbay&Nichols 115 Korean Air Bombing (1987) North Korea Casualty 5500 Aum Salin Gas Attack (1995) Aum-Shinrikyo 4000 Kenya / Tanzania (1998) Al-Qaeda

  8. Spatial Analysis of 9-11 Attack Russia (weapons) Europe (recruiting) US（terrorist cells/training） Afghanistan (HQ/training/financing) Saudi Arabia（financing） Pakistan (terrorist cells) Sudan（terrorist cells/training） Indonesia/Philippines（terrorist cells/training）

  9. Terrorist Organizations (Al-Qaeda) Supporter Sleeper Cell Hub Cell = Terrorist Cell

  10. Domestic Terrorism Conventional Weapons Non-Traditional Weapons Overseas Terrorism Patterns of TerrorismUS Perspective World Trade Center Bombing (1993) 9.11 terrorism／Anthrax (2001) Kenya/Tanzania US Embassy Bombing (1998) Aum Shinrikyo Salin Gas Attack (1996)

  11. Typology of International Terrorism • Territory-oriented Terrorism • Europe / Middle East • Palestine (PLA) / Northern Ireland / Bask / Kosovo • Asia • Sri Lanka / Kashmir / Ache / MILF • Ideal-oriented Terrorism • Political Terrorism • Far Left / Far Right / Anarchist • Religious Terrorism • Islamic Fundamentalist / Christian Fundamentalist • Religious Cults • Social Issue-oriented Terrorism • Anti-abortion / Animal Protection / Environmental Preservation • Personal Delusion Terrorism • Unabomber

  12. Categorization of Counter-Terrorism Source: Naofumi Miyasaka (2004)

  13. US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism(1) “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (-2003) • Patterns of Global Terrorism • Officially recognizing more than 30 terrorist organizations • Four Policy Principles on Counter Terrorism • make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals • bring terrorists to justice to their crimes • isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior • Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those countries that work with the US and require assistance ―US State Department ”Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003)

  14. US Strategy on Anti-/Counter- Terrorism (2) “US Strategy for Combating Terrorism” (2003)

  15. Terrorist Organizations in Asia (1)cf “Patterns of Global Terrorism” (2003) • Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)-Mindanao • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)-Mindanao • Kumplan Mujahideen Malaysia (KMM)-Malaysia • Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) Yousif Longpi-Indonesia • Jemaah Islamiah (JI) - Riduan Isamuddin: • Ties to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Zacarias Moussaoui, Khalid al-Mihdar, Nawaf al-Hazmi-2000 Al Qaeda Summit in Kuala Lumpur • Abu-Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Philippines • Tamil Tigers - Phuket, Thailand • Sri Lankan Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) • These organizations are all related through their shared ideology of radical Islamic nationalism revolving around the preservation of Islamic culture in response to real and perceived aggression.

  16. Terrorist Organizations in Asia (2) • Islamic Jihad Group -Throughout Central Asia & South Asia • Japanese Red Army - Japan • East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - Western Xinjiang province/China • Cambodian Freedom Fighters - Cambodia & U.S. • Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Philippines • Communist Party of Philippines / New People’s Army • AUM Shinrikyo (AUM) - Japan & Russia • Abu Nidal Organization (ANO)-Asia, Middle East and Europe

  17. Southeast Asia as Terrorist Bed • Areas with Major Islamic Population • Middle East 19.5% (238,000,000) • Indonesia 17% (200,000,000) • South Asia 25% (300,000,000) • Africa 20% (240,000,000) • Turkey 10% (125,000,000) • Characteristic of Southeast Asia’s Extremists • Muslim Youth Movement • Diffused Centralized Command & Control • External Support and Recruitment • Early Stages of Organizational Development • Gaining Momentum in Technics and Efficiency (eg Bali Bombing)

  18. Regional Cooperation in Asia on Combating Terrorism • APEC • APEC Action Plan for Combating the Financing of Terrorism (2002) • APEC Counter Terrorism Action Plans (2003) • Counter-Terrorism Task Force (2003) • Fund for Regional Trade and Security Initiative (2004) • ARF • Statement on Measures Against Terrorist Financing (2002) • Statement on Cooperative counter-terrorist action on border security (2003) • Statement Strengthening Transport Security Against International Terrorism (2004) • Statement on Sharing and Intelligence Exchange and Document Integrity and Security in Enhancing Cooperation to Combat Terrorism and Other Transnational Crimes(2005) • ASEAN+3 • Joint Statement (2001-2005)

  19. Bilateral and Ad-hoc Cooperationon Combating Terrorism • Regional Groupings • Bali Process • Bali Regional Ministerial Meeting on Counter-Terrorism (2004) • Legal Issue Working Group • Southeast Asia Center for Counter-Terrorism • Malaysia • Bilateral Cooperation • Japan-(ROK, Australia, Russia, EU) • Among ASEAN Member States • Australia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand) • Ad-hoc (functional) Cooperation • Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI): Japan, Australia, Singapore • Container Security Initiative (CSI) : Japan, China, Singapore, Malaysia Taiwan

  20. Globalism / Regionalism / Bilateralism Economic Sphere Security Sphere Global FrameworkGATT / IMF UN / Multinational Mega-Regionalism APEC ARF / OSCE Regionalism EU / ASEAN +3 EU / ASEAN Coalition Multilateral FTAs Anti-Terrorism Bilateralism Bilateral FTAs Bilateral Alliance

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