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NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing

NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing. Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP Version 2.0. Overview. NCEP African Desk website Key entry point: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ Products for forecasters

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NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing

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  1. NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP Version 2.0

  2. Overview • NCEP African Desk website • Key entry point: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • Products for forecasters • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml • Surfs up tour of products and locations

  3. NCEP African Desk Entry Pointhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) • African Desk Training/Cirriculum • Forecast Products and outlooks • Key contacts • Wassila Thiaw • Vadlamani Kumar • Enter • Via the MAP • Our Africa under Special Products

  4. Test Drive Site for Products • Try main entry point • Examine text products bulletin • Examine use of maps and data+- • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml

  5. Main Forecaster Real-time datahttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml • Resources for forecaster • Expert Assessments • Regional NWP • Africa Wide NWP • Observations • Analysis • Precipitation • Satellite Data • Real-time and precipitatoin estimates

  6. Links • International Jump off point: • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • Main Forecast entry point • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml • East Africa tools: • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtml

  7. Weakness and Strength • Higher resolution than the EFS • 15 or 27 vs 75 km • Typically more skill than our EFS • Best at shorter forecast ranges • It is an ensemble member in and of itself • Has meteorological details • Put details often introduce errors! • I

  8. Weakness and Strength • I • EFS and global models • are too course for features which can really impact the local and regional weather • Smooth out terrain features • Smooth out finer scale features • Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-b and meso-g features • Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps • Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases

  9. Weakness and Strength • I

  10. Weakness and Strength • I

  11. Weakness and Strength • I

  12. Weakness and Strength • I

  13. Review • NCEP African Desk website • Main jump off/entry point: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • Products for forecasters • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml • A brief tour of the site was conducted

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