EU’s energy security strategy and energy security of Poland

1. EU’s energy security strategyand energy security of Poland Kamila Pronińska, assistant professor Institute of Internaional Relations Warsaw University Krzysztof Księżopolski, assistant professor Institute for Security, Energy and Climate Studies Center for Political Analisys Warsaw University

2. EU’s energy security policylong-term vs. contex-thinking aboutenergysecurity Global and regional energy market trends Geopolitical context Perception of threats and challenges to energy security Individual interests of different actors EU institutions Energy companies States Final consumers Regions Shared competences Foreign producers EU’s energy security Strategy, Dr. Kaila Pronińska, Institute of International Relations, Warsaw Univeristy

3. EU’s energy security policy since the beginning of the financial crisis CHANGE in Eu’s primary law  chapter on Energy: Art. 194(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (co-decision and qualified majority voting) sets out the four main aims of the EU’s energy policy: to ensure the functioning of the energy market; to ensure the security of supply in the Union to promote energy efficiency and energy saving, and develop new and renewable forms of energy; to promote the interconnection of energy networks. Art. 122(1) : [w]ithout prejudice to any other procedure provided for in the Treaties, the Council,on a proposal from the Commission, may decide, in a spirit of solidarity between the Member States, upon measures appropriate to the economic situation, in particular if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products, notably in the area of energy • Security of supply (!) Regulation 994/2010 concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply and repealing Council Directive 2004/64/EC • Priorities for 2020 and Beyond – a Blueprint for an Integrated European Energy Network, COM • Feb. 2011 EU summit  Energy Strategy 2020„no EU Member State should remain isolated from European gas and electricity networks after 2015 or see its energy security jeoparadized by lack of appropriate connections” • European Energy Programme for Recovery 2010/2011 (4 bn EUR)  supports gas + electricity + CCS + wind offshore projects • 17 April 2013 regulation on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure

4. Energy Security Strategyand Energy-climate policy 2030 Eu’s import dependency New energy security policy framework under the influence of: • global energy supply-demand trends; • European supply-demand trends – growing EU’s import dependencies; • increasing vulnerability of European economies to global oil/gas prices fluctuations; • financial crisis and its impact on the levels of investments in oil/gas up-stream and down-stream sectors; • technical constrains of energy infrastructure; • physical disruptions of oil and gas supplies to EU countries; • technological trends (LNG, shale gas, shale oil, RET) (!) • development of LNG and spot gas market in Europe • conflicting interests among EU member states and in EU-Russia relations (e.g. competing gas pipelines projects; disputes over development of shale gas; development of green energy policy); • Changing security/geopolitical conditions.

5. EU Energy Security Strategy Jan. 2014 – the policy framework for the period up to 2030 (EC) the targets 2030: Reducing EU domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below the 1990 level by 2030 (and cutting emissions by at least 80% by 2050) – the sectors covered by the EU ETS would have to reduce their emissions by 43% compared to 2005 and sectors outside the EU ETS would need to be cut by 30% below the 2005 level Increasing the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 2030 - binding on the EU, the target would not be translated into national targets through EU legislation. Continued improvements in energy efficiency (May 2013 Energy Comissioner opts for binding target) March 2014 EU leaders agreed to decide on the final framework in October 2014 ”Despite all the achievements in strengthening EU’s infrastructure and diversifying its suppliers, the EU remains vulnerable to external energy shocks” ”The need of a hard-headed strategy for energy security” 28 May 2014 the European Commission has released EU Energy Security Strategy [COM(2014) 330 final ] and an in-depth study of Member States' energy dependence.

6. ”EU needs to move to a competitive, low-carbon economy which reduces the use of imported fossil fuels” How?

7. EU Energy Security Strategy - Measures to strengthen Europe's resilience and reduce its energy import dependency (the short, medium and longer term actions) in eight areas: 1. Immediate actions aimed at increasing the EU's capacity to overcome a majordisruption during the winter 2014/2015; 2. Strengthening emergency/solidarity mechanisms including coordination of riskassessments and contingency plans; and protecting strategic infrastructure; 3. Moderating energy demand; 4. Building a well-functioning and fully integrated internal market; 5. Increasing energy production in the European Union; 6. Further developing energy technologies; 7. Diversifying external supplies and related infrastructure; 8. Improving coordination of national energy policies and speaking with one voice inexternalenergy policy.

8. Geostrategic, economic, environmental challenges to energy security of Poland Lack of infrastructure (pipelines, interconnectors, reserves) Poor diversification of supplies (N1 East-West pipeline links – high dependence on Russian gas and oil) Lack of access to LNG, gas hubs, etc. Role of transit (integral part of energy security concept in the CE region) LTC dominating in the gas trade High prices of imported gas Low environmental awarness Low energy efficiency High CO2 emissions Climate-energy acquis ! Poland and other CEE countriescouldn’t benefit from the decreases of wholesale gas prices  prices in the region were much higher High vulnerability to external disruptions During gas crisis the gas (e.g. from European hubs) could not be transported to where it was needed! (V4+)

9. EU Energy Security Strategy - Measures to strengthen Europe's resilience and reduce its energy import dependency (the short, medium and longer term actions) in eight areas: Immediate actions aimed at increasing the EU's capacity to overcome a majordisruption during the winter 2014/2015; INFRASTRUCTURE (emergence, regional interconnections, storage, etc.) 2. Strengthening emergency/solidarity mechanisms including coordination of riskassessments and contingency plans; and protecting strategic infrastructure; BACK UP INFRASTRUCTURE, REVERSE FLOWS ON ALL CROSS BORDER INTERCONNECTIONS, SoS, SOLIDARITY CEI SECURITY(inc. IT)! CONTROL over CEI (vide Russia) 4. Building a well-functioning and fully integrated internal market; Making the internal market for electricity and gas work better Accelerating the construction of key interconnectors  Development of regional projects (large scale projects, a few LNG terminals and storage projects) "Speedy implementation of all the measures to meet the target of achieving interconnection of at least 10 % of their installed electricity production capacity for all Member States” and the European Commission proposes to extend the current 10% interconnection target to 15% by 2030

10. EU Energy Security Strategy - Measures to strengthen Europe's resilience and reduce its energy import dependency (the short, medium and longer term actions) in eight areas: 3. Moderating energy demand; ENERGY EFFICIENCY (the building sector, district heating and cooling) 4. Building a well-functioning and fully integrated internal market; • Strategic coordination of EU’s oil policy 5. Increasing energy production in the European Union; • Energy mix! • RES; accelerating fuel switch in the heating sector to renewable heating technologies • RES large scale integration will require smarter energy grids and new energy storage solutions • Unconventional sources of hydrocarbons (Launching a European science and technology Network on unconventional hydrocarbon extraction, draw ing up Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference documents on hydrocarbons exploration and production (BREF)) • CCS • nuclear energy 6. Further developing energy technologies; - efficient and cost-effective solutions to improve the efficiency of buildings and local heating systems, to provide new energy storage solutions and optimise the management of grids. 7. Diversifying external supplies and related infrastructure; 8. Improving coordination of national energy policies and speaking with one voice in external energy policy.