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An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses. AER Group, Tallahassee FL Buddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen. Project Scope. Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric Direct cost savings

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An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

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  1. An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses AER Group, Tallahassee FL Buddy Atkins,Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen

  2. Project Scope • Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric • Direct cost savings • Indirect benefits

  3. Electric Bus Alternative • The Proterra EcoRide • Equivalent lifespan of a diesel bus (12 years) • Improved fuel efficiency • Simplified motor • FastFill™ Charging Station

  4. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  5. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison • Purchase Price • Facility Upgrades Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  6. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel $790,000 $480,000 Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

  7. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel $310,000 Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

  8. Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of Initial Investment for Electric and Diesel Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD • Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal funding for electric buses in 2011

  9. Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel, but Offset by Federal Grants $62,000 Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012

  10. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis • Maintenance • Fuel Cost Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  11. Electric Bus Has a Simpler Mechanical System Engine Oil Engine Engine Components Traction Motor Gearbox Belts Alternator Fuel Systems Exhaust Systems Retarder Battery vs. Diesel Electric Proterra Inc., 2013

  12. Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

  13. Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than Diesel $112,000 US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

  14. Electricity and Diesel Price Projections Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035 Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013

  15. Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification Source: US Energy Information Administration

  16. Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Modification Florida Projection Source: US Energy Information Administration

  17. Electricity Prices Vary Due To Numerous Utilities Throughout Florida Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013

  18. Buses Concentrated in Densely Populated Areas Source: Florida Department of Transportation

  19. Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12% Source: EIA, FMEA

  20. Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12% Source: EIA, FMEA

  21. Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel Efficient than Diesel Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD

  22. Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric $450K less than Diesel $445,000 Source: Penn State, NTD

  23. Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

  24. Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Diesel $464,000 Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

  25. Conversion Plan – Purchase 200 Electric Buses Each Year Full Conversion

  26. Annual Total Cost of Diesel Fleet and Conversion Initial Investment Total Cost Difference Battery Purchase Increased Fuel Efficiency Full Conversion

  27. Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per Year Full Conversion Recoupment $120 million Initial Deficit

  28. Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Federal Grants Reference $85 M Constant Grants

  29. Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035 Source: US Energy Information Administration

  30. Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035 Source: US Energy Information Administration

  31. Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Fuel Prices Reference $80 M Constant Fuel Prices

  32. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  33. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  34. Electrifying Public Bus System May Create New Jobs

  35. Additional Electricity Demand May Require a New Power Plant in Florida Source: Florida Public Service Commission Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for electricity A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed

  36. If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It Will Stimulate the Florida Economy Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission

  37. Local Governments Can Divert Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Other Services Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc. If cost savings are spent on education:

  38. Electrifying Public Bus System Could Reduce Negative Externalities Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA • Since 2001, “clean diesel” has helped reduce air pollutants • CO2 emissions have not been reduced • Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?

  39. CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from Production of Electricity at Power Plants 40 metric tons of CO2 per bus annually Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA

  40. CO2Emissions Are Significantly Lower for Electric Buses CO2 emissions are 75% lower for an electric bus! Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

  41. Electrifying Transit Will Continually Reduce CO2Emissions At full conversion, 300k tons of CO2can be saved Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

  42. Electrifying Could Reduce Externality Cost by as Much as $7M Annually $7.5m $4.5m $4m Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

  43. Conclusion Impact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

  44. Methodology Initial Investment Cost Comparison Annual Expenditures Impact Analysis Increased Economic Activity Additional Benefits Reduced Externalities

  45. Florida Would Benefit from Electrifying the Public Bus System • At full conversion: • Annual cost savings of $120M • Creation of up to 600 jobs • Reduced externality effect by $7M • It makes economic sense for Florida to adopt an electric bus system

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