CHAPTER 6 THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

1. Multinational Business Finance 723g33 CHAPTER 6 THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET Yinghong.chen@liu.se

2. The Foreign Exchange Market • Foreign exchangemeans the money of a foreign country; that is, foreign currency, bank balances, banknotes, checks and drafts. • A foreign exchange transactionis an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will be delivered for some other currency at a specified rate. • $ 1 €

3. Geography • The foreign exchange market spans the globe, with currencies trading somewhere every hour of every business day.

4. 0 Exhibit 6.1 Measuring Foreign Exchange Market Activity: Average Electronic Conversions Per Hour

5. Exhibit 6.2 Global Currency Trading: The Trading Day Start of the day

6. The Foreign Exchange Market • The Foreign Exchange Market provides: • the physical and institutional structure through which the money of one country is exchanged for that of another country; • the determination of rate of exchange between currencies, and • is where foreign exchange transactions are physically completed.

7. 0 Functions of the Foreign Exchange Market • The foreign exchange Market is the mechanism by which participants: • transfer purchasing power between countries; • obtain or provide credit for international trade transactions, and • minimize exposure to the risks of exchange rate changes.

8. 0 Market structure • The foreign exchange market consists of twotiers: Tier 1: • the interbank or wholesale market (multiples of $1 trillion US or equivalent in transaction size), and Tier 2: • the client or retail market (specific, smaller amounts).

9. Market Participants Four broad categories of participants: • Bank and nonbank foreign exchange dealers, • Individuals and firms, • Speculators and arbitragers, and • Central banks and treasuries.

10. 0 1. Bank and Nonbank Foreign Exchange Dealers • Banks and a few nonbank foreign exchange dealers operate in both the interbank and client markets. • The profit from buying foreign exchange at a “bid” price and reselling it at a slightly higher “offer” or “ask” price. • Dealers in large international banks often function as “market makers.” • These dealers stand willing at all times to buy and sell those currencies in which they specialize and thus maintain an “inventory” position in those currencies.

11. Exhibit 6.8 Bid, Ask, and Mid-Point Quotation

12. 0 2. Individuals and Firms • Individuals (such as tourists) and firms (such as importers, exporters and MNEs) conduct commercial and investment transactions in the foreign exchange market. • Their use of the foreign exchange market is necessary for their underlying commercial or investment purpose. • Some of the participants use the market to “hedge” foreign exchange risk.

13. 0 3. Dealers, Speculators and Arbitragers • Speculators and arbitragers seek to profit from trading in the market itself. • They operate in their own interest, without a need or obligation to serve clients or ensure a continuous market. • While dealers seek the bid/ask spread, speculators seek all the profit from exchange rate changes and arbitragers try to profit from simultaneous exchange rate differences in different markets.

14. 0 4: Central Banks and Treasuries • Central banks and treasuries use the market to acquire or spend their country’s foreign exchange reserves as well as to influence the price at which their own currency is traded. • The motive is not to earn a profit • Central banks and treasuries differ in motive from all other market participants.

15. 0 Transactions in the Interbank Market • A spot transaction in the interbank market is the purchase of foreign exchange, with delivery and payment between banks to take place on the second following business day. • The date of settlement is referred to as thevalue date.

16. Exhibit 6.3 Foreign Exchange Settlement in Europe

17. 0 Transactions in the Interbank Market • An outright forward transaction (or a forward) requires delivery at a future value date of a specified amount of one currency for a specified amount of another currency. • The exchange rate is established at the time of the agreement, but payment and delivery are not required until maturity. • Forward exchange rates are usually quoted for value dates of one, two, three, six and twelve months.

18. 0 Transactions in the Interbank Market • A swap transaction in the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value dates (settlement date). • Both purchase and sale are conducted with the same counterparty. • Some different types of swaps are: • spot against forward, • forward-forward with different value dates, • nondeliverable forwards (NDF).

19. 0 Market Size • In April 2004, a survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated the daily global net turnover in traditional foreign exchange market activity to be $1.9 trillion. • This most recent period showed dramatic growth in foreign exchange trading over that seen in April 2001.

20. Exhibit 6.4 Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover, 1989-2010 (average daily turnover in April, billions of U.S. dollars)

21. Exhibit 6.5 Top 10 Geographic Trading Centers in the Foreign Exchange Market, 1991-2010 (average daily turnover in April)

22. Exhibit 6.6 Foreign Exchange Market Turnover by Currency Pair (daily average in April)

23. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotations • A foreign exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another currency. • A foreign exchange quotation (or quote) is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate.

24. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotations • Most foreign exchange transactions involve the US dollar. • Professional dealers and brokers may state foreign exchange quotations in one of two ways: • the foreign currency price of one dollar, or • the dollar price of a unit of foreign currency. • Most foreign currencies in the world are stated in terms of the number of units of foreign currency needed to buy one dollar.

25. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotations • Foreign exchange quotes: direct or indirect quote the home country of the currencies being discussed is critical. • A direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of foreign currency. ex: SKr/$ • An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of a unit of home currency. ex: $/Skr • The form of the quote depends on what the speaker regard as “home.”

26. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotations • For example, the exchange rate between US dollars and the Swiss franc is normally stated: • SF 1.6000/$ (direct quote) • However, this rate can also be stated as: • $0.6250/SF (indirect quote) • most interbank quotations around the world are stated in European terms.

27. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotes • Forward rates are typically quoted in terms of points. 1 points typically corresponds to 0,0001 in value. • Rather, it is the difference between the forward rate and the spot rate.

28. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotes • Forward quotations may also be expressed as the percent-per-annum deviation from the spot rate. • This method of quotation makes it easier to compare premiums or discounts in the forward market • If a currency increases in value in the future, it is traded at a premium, if decreases, it is at a discount against the other currency.

29. 0 Forward premium (¥ vs. $) • For quotations expressed in foreign currency terms (indirect quotation ) the formula becomes: f ¥= Spot – Forward360 • For quotations expressed in home currency terms (direct quotation) the formula becomes: f ¥= Forward – Spot360 x x 100 n Forward 100 x x Spot n

30. Example 1 Suppose we know that Spot rate: ¥118,27/$ <=>$0,0084/¥ 3-month Forward: ¥ 116,84/$ <=> $0,0085/¥ Dollar is selling forward at a discount against Yen. Yen is selling foward at a premium against USD. The forward premium of Yen (home currency terms)is ((118,27-116,84)/116,84)*360/90*100=+4,90%

31. Example 1: cont. Suppose we know that Spot rate: ¥118,27/$ <=>$0,0084/¥ 3-month Forward: ¥ 116,84/$ <=> $0,0085/¥ • USD is selling at a discount against JPY. • Forward discount= • (116,84-118,27)/118,27*360/90*100=-4,836%

32. Exhibit 6.9 Exchange Rates: New York Closing Snapshot

33. Exhibit 6.9 Exchange Rates: New York Closing Snapshot (cont.)

34. 0 Foreign Exchange Rates and Quotes • Some currency pairs are only inactively traded, so their exchange rate is determined through their relationship to a widely traded third currency (cross rate). • Cross rates can be used to check on opportunities for intermarketarbitrage. • one bank’s (Dresdner) quotation on €/£ is not the same as calculated cross rate between $/£ (Barclay’s) and $/€ (Citibank).

35. Citibank quote - $/€ $1.1.3297/€ Barclays quote - $/£ $1.5585/£ Dresdner quote - €/£ €1.1722/£ Cross rate calculation: $1.5585/£ Because the rates are unequal, a triangular arbitrage opportunity exists. For another example, see Exhibit 6.11 = € 1.1721/£ = 0 Intermarket Arbitrage $1.3297/€

36. Exhibit 6.10 Key Currency Rate Calculations for January 3, 2012

37. Exhibit 6.11 Triangular Arbitrage by a Market Trader

38. x 100 x 100 Beginning Rate Beginning Rate 0 Foreign Exchange Rates changes (example: note the two notations are identical!!!) • Measuring a change in the spot rate for quotations expressed in home currency terms (direct quotations): %∆ = Ending rate – Beginning Rate Quotations expressed in foreign currency terms (indirect quotations): = Beginning rate –Ending rate

39. Example 2: • Mexican peso has changed from MXP10/USD to MXP 11/USD, what is the percentage change in the value of dollar, and peso? Dollar appreciated in terms of MXP! (11-10)/10=10% Peso depreciated in terms of USD! (1/11-1/10)*(1/10)=(10-11)/11=-9,09%

40. Exhibit 6.12 Spot and Forward Quotations for the Euro and Japanese Yen 1,0897+0,0003= 1,0900