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KBC Bank & Insurance Group. Investor presentation Winter 2003. Website: www.kbc.com Ticker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream) ISIN code: BE0003565737. Table of contents. Shareholder information Company profile Strategy overview
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KBC Bank & Insurance Group Investor presentation Winter 2003 Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Table of contents • Shareholder information • Company profile • Strategy overview • Business highlights, year-to-date • Financial highlights, year-to-date • Additional information • Contact co-ordinates
Shareholder information Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Relatively low share price related to book value and earnings capactity Key figures Analyst forecasts (September 2003) • EPS 2003 consensus: 3.59 • EPS 2004 consensus: 4.11 • P/E (average 2 years): 9.6 Recommendations : • Positive : 14 • Neutral : 11 • Negative : 2 N° of shares outstanding : 302.4 m
Shareholder structure guaranteeing long-term strategic perspective • KBC is a middle-sized financial company in Europe with a market cap of ± 11 bn (float: ± 3.3 bn) MRBB Other stable shareholders CERA Holding& Almancora ± 16% ± 38% ± 17% Number 11 in Euro ranking StockMarket Gevaert Private equity 100% ± 26% Almanij KBLPrivate bank ± 78% ± 68% ± 30% KBCBank & Insurance • Almanij is an investment company (of which KBC is ± 75% of the assets) committed to support KBC on the long-term • Core holders include the Ceragroup (co-operative investment company), a farmers association (MRBB) and a syndicate of industrialist families, all of which KBC is a major asset As of end of 18 November 2003
Dividend policy aiming steady and growing dividend • Board of directors’ preference to maintain a steadily growing dividend • Gross dividend up every year over the past 5 years (at a CAGR of 9%) • Average payout: 40-45% (usually cash). Payout may be raised to keep dividend stable in case of temporary drop in profit EPS DPS Payout Yield (*) (*) Gross DPS versus average share price
Company profile Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Top bancassurer in Belgium: 3rd bank (market share: ± 22 %) 1st asset manager (31% in retail funds) 3rd retail insurer (13% L&H, 9% P&C) Successful expansion in the 5 most converged countries in ‘Emerging Europe’ growth market of ± 65 mln inhabitants ± 3 bn capital invested prominent/leading position in banking in each country Focused/niche activities in corporate and investment banking As investments in CE progressed, CIB activities have been downsized. Successful in core businesses KEY FIGURES: Total assets: EUR ±210 bn Net profit ‘02: 1.03 bn ROE ’02: 12.7 % Headcount: ± 44 000 Customers: ± 10 m Credit rating: AA-, AA3, A+ Share in allocated capital (excl. goodwill)
Leading player in Central Europe Banking Insurance Czech Republic:Market share: 18% (no 2)Total assets: 19 bnProfit/ROE ‘02: 199m (16%) Czech Republic:Life M share: 9% (no 5)Non life M share: 4% (no 6)Assets/Profit ‘02: 0.6 bn/-12m Slovakia:Life M share: 4% (no 6)Non life M share: 2% (no 8)Assets/Profit ‘02: 40m/-1m Slovakia:Market share: 6% (no 4) Hungary:Market share: 12% (no 2)Total assets: 5 bnProfit/ROE ‘02: 48m (13%) 30% Hungary:Life M share: 2% (no 14)Non life M share: 4% (no 6)Assets/Profit ‘02: 67m/2m 25% Poland:Market share: 6% (no 7)Total assets: 6 bnProfit/ROE ‘02: -82m (-17%) Poland:Minority interest (40%), agreement to acquire 51 %Life M share: 1% (no 9)Non life M share: 14% (no 2)Total assets: 1.1 bn Slovenia:Minority interest (34%)Market share: 45% (no 1)Total assets: 9 bn Slovenia:Startup life business 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 share in group profit (left) and in allocated capital (right), excl. group items
Successful financial track record • Gross revenue growth: 13 % CAGR • Life premium income doubled from 1.1 bn in ’98 to 2.2 in ‘02 (bancassurance model) • Slowdown in cost efficiency: C/I up from 60 % in ’98 to 65 % in ’02. Although merger synergies in Belgium arose, acquisitions in CEE weighted on efficiency (synergies still to materialize) • Since 2001:impact of the adverse financial climate (cost of risk, value losses) • As a balance: EPS CAGR 6 % Financial track record ‘98-’02 Gross operating (left), net operating income (mid) and net profit (right) 19% Commission Revenue profile :(9M ‘03) Insurance(technical and investment income) Interest income,banking Trading income Other
Balanced credit portfolio Geographical breakdown Other US 6.9 bn Belgium 53.1 bn W. Eur 19.9 bn Sector breakdown C.E.E. 16.9 bn 30 June 2003 Credit portfolio incl. corporate bonds and loans to banks, excl. reverse repo’s.
Central Europe: 5 % Belgium:85 % Performing asset manager Breakdown of Belgian retail funds: Assets under management (bn EUR) Equity: 12% Other Bonds & MM: 16% 84 80 81 76 Mixed: 12% Capital guaranteed: 49% Market share, retail funds: Belgium : 31% Czech Republic : 23% Slovak Republic: 11% Hungary : 11%
Strenghts Prominent market positions in home markets, both Belgium and CEE Geographical/business diversification High performing asset management and P&C insurance division Unique bancassurance concept Good overall profitability track recordand Very sound solvency levels Stable core shareholders (long term) SWOT analysis Weaknesses • Still high cost/income ratio • Cost reduction management is rather difficult in Belgium • Volatily related to level of gearing to equity markets • CEE still a somewhat higher risk zone(although rapidly converging) • Lack of stability and scale in Poland(work in progress) • Moderate share liquidity Opportunities • Revenue growth and barely tapped cost cutting potential in CEE • Availability of excess capital • Unexploited synergy within Almanij group • Relatively low share valuation Threats • Consolidation wave in Europe, if any
Strategy overview Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Key objectives Cross selling (bancassurance) in Belgium Reducing banking costsin Belgium Developing a second home market in CEE Achieved up-to-date Premium income boosted (life premiums doubled from 1.1 bn in ’98 to 2.2 in ’02 at al level of 85 % sold via bank outlets. Bank distribution of P&C growing faster then via traditional channels) Cost synergies thanks to integrated IT-infrastructure, reduced branches (-43%) and headcount (-12%) Solid franchise in the main 5 countries, renewed IT-systems and bancassurance model gradually set up.Cost reduction programs in progress. Group strategy KBC is a bancassurer, focussing on local clients (individuals and SME), in Belgium and selected countries in (Central) Europe
Key objectives Cross selling (bancassurance) in Belgium Reducing banking costsin Belgium Work in progress Bancassurance potential for SME (10% market share vs 20-25 % in banking) Bancassurance potential for P&C (10% via bank channel vs 90 % in life) Cut of product complexity in retail (reduction by 70 % considered) Outscourcing of processing (payments) and IT (lmited scale), ) stronger pooling of backoffices of Belgian subsidiaries and co-sourcing with other banks, e.g. within the Almanij group in the field of private banking Rationalisation of headquarter workspace and other non FTE expenses Earnings drivers Future earnings drivers in Belgium
Key objectives Developing a second home market in CEE (more focus on commercial clout and operational efficiency) Work in progress Penetration of banking and AM products (deposits to GDP at 45%-80% of EU avg) Sales of insurance products via bank network (premium/capita <20% of EU) Business reorganising in CZ and PL -> 10-15% FTE downsizing by 2004 Cross border cost-sharing (payments systems, IT procurement, equity research, etc.) Strenghening of internal governance model and central management structure If acquisition opportunities arise, meeting the 10% market share in HU (insurance) and PL (banking) Earnings drivers Future earnings drivers in Central and Eastern Europe
Demanding financial objectives Minimumtargets 2005 Cost/income ratio, banking 58 % Combined ratio,P&C insurance (*)95 % Tier-1,banking 8 % Solvency, insurance (**) 200 % EPS growth (4y CAGR) 10 % ROE, group 16 % ROAC Retail in Belgium 16 % Central and Eastern Europe 17 % Corporates 12 % Markets 18 % (*) excl. re-insurance(**) incl. non-realised capital gains
Year-to-date business highlights Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Increasing efficiency in Belgium Shift from external expansion towards commercial clout and operational efficiency in Central and Eastern Europe Further downscaling of less-strategic areas Clustering of retail branches Efficiency enhancement programs for the back office operations Outscourcing of transaction processing (payments) and IT (lmited scale) Reorganisation program in Poland and staff redcution in CR Instensifying cross-border initiatives in such areas as bank card technology Succesful start of bancassurance in Slovenia Strenghening management and controlling capacity at KBC HQ Selling of retail activities in the Netherlands, broker-related consumer lending in Belgium, non-strategic operations in CEE (Ukraïn, Lithuania) Year-to-date business highlights
Year-to-date financial highlights Website: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters) B:KB (Datastream)ISIN code: BE0003565737
Third Quarter Highlights In m EUR + 15% + 0% + 69% - 5% Average quarter2002 - 15% Relatively good performance (up 69 %) y-o-y
Third Quarter Highlights • Robust performance in Belgium • Further improving level of costs in banking (ytd -5%) • Pressure on interest margin reversed (Q/Q: 195 -> 210 bp) • Low level of loan loss ratio (ytd 22 bp) and P&C (*) claims ratio (ytd 59 bp) • Satisfactory result in most CEE markets • ROAC (*) banking in Czech (CR) / Slovak republics (SR): ytd 17% • ROAC for banking in Hungary: ytd 19% • Improved performance by insurance operations (still limited scale) • … but very poor performance of banking business in Poland(high loan loss provisions : 124 m in 3Q) (*) P&C : Property and Casualty insurance (**) Return on allocated capital
Banking, income development • Interest income : ytd 2% organic growth(margin : 6M 1.63% 9M 1.71%) • Commission income : strong growth(capital-guaranteed funds) • Lower trading income due to lower FX incomeand MtM of equity derivatives • Considerable capital gains (ytd 196 m) on ‘free’ bond portfolio • One-off ‘other income’ recorded in 2Q 02 and lower dividends 9M 03 -1% Total income -2% Gross income ytd +16% - 13% - 12% - 33% -30% Excluding capital gains, stable gross operating income despite difficult climate in 1H
9M 03:45 %Belgium 9M 03:27 %CEE Banking, expense development • Belgium : • Expenditures ytd : 5% (- 60 m) • Headcount reduction :target of 1 650 FTE met in Oct 03 • Central and Eastern Europe : • Expenditures ytd: 1% (6 m) • Headcount reduction : • Czech Republic : 460 FTE(48% of target) • Poland : new target of 1 000/1200 FTE Cost/Income ratio 9M 03: 65% (65% for FY 02) Ytd expenses (m EUR) 2 782 2 757 2 461 2001 excl. KB Continuing cost control
Cost control in Belgium • Merger (almost) completed, full extent of cost savings in bottom-line as of 1H 04 • Lower cost/income ratio ahead, thanks to: • Greater use of bancassurance (acceleration in P&C and to SME segment) • Reduction in product complexity in retail (possibly by up to 70%) (*) • Outsourcing of transaction processing (payments) and IT (limited scale)(implementation in progress) • Stronger pooling of back-office activities of Belgian group companies • Various other co-sourcing scenarios being considered • Screening of real-estate-related costs Although Belgium is a ‘mature’ market, further improvement in performance can be expected (*) e.g. by reducing the wide range of credit cards, travellers’ cheques, mortgage loans, savings certificates, …
Banking, loan provisions Loan loss ratio 9M 03: 0.60% (0.55 for FY 02) Quarterly loan loss provisions (m EUR) (1) Gross loans (2) Specific provisions - annualized Intensive clean-up of loan portfolio in Poland
Retailbankingin Belgium • Ytd profit 145 m (189%), ROAC up to 10% from 3% • Growth in income : ytd 6% (strong commission income and rebound in interest income) • Cost reduction : ytd 5% • Provisions (38 m EUR) remain low (16 bp on RWA(*)) +36% Belgium 1st home market 2003 has seen a turnaround in Belgian retail on the back of robust commission business and cost savings (*) Risk -weighted assets
CR & SR : stable yoy in spite of pressure on margin, thanks to commission income and zero expense growth Hungary : income and volume growth more than set off pressure on margin Poland : difficult economic conditions and high loan loss provisions (195 m) Banking in Central and Eastern Europe Central Europe 2nd home market Satisfactory performance in Czech Republic,Slovakia and Hungary (though further improvement to be expected) Still basic restructuring work to do in Poland (*) excl. minority interests, incl. 12 m provisions for KB related to 02
Activities in Central and Eastern Europe • Confidence in our strategy fundamentals : • Satisfying year-to-date results in most markets (incl. insurance),excl. banking in Poland • Within 6 months : all CEE affiliates (5 countries) operating in the EU • Common shared optimism regarding rebound of economic cycle in ‘04 • Refocusing : from ‘external expansion’ to ‘improvement in performance’ • Adjustment of group governance model to encompass CEE affiliates.Key issues : • Further increase in management and controlling capacity of KBC HQ • Improved organization of transfer of know-how to CEE • Strengthened central audit teams Central Europe 2nd home market
Addressing the challenges in Poland • Capital base: strengthened (+ 666 m PLN (completed), KBC's stake up to 81%) • Risk sensitivity: to be greatly reduced • Credit risk policies redefined and credit decision authority reduced (completed) • Cleaning up ‘historic’ loan book (195 m provisions ytd) • Improving risk control and risk management • Cost base: to be further reduced • Centralizing back offices, strengthening HR and performance measurement • Reducing headcount (driven by new central IT system) by 1000/1200 FTE,real estate expenses (15-20 %) and other tangible costs (5-10%) by ‘04 • Disinvesting from non-strategic activities (Ukraine, Lithuania, PKB, Pension Fund,…) • Market position: to be improved on the retail market (sales growth 10-15 %) • Thorough customer segmentation in the nationwide network • Transfer of KBC product know-how (e.g., in the field of AM) • Acceleration of bancassurance efforts with WARTA Insurance Central Europe 2nd home market
Central Europe: 5 % Belgium:85 % Asset Management division Breakdown of retail funds Equity: 11% • Profit contribution:ytd 84 m ( 4%) • New capital-guaranteed funds :ytd 105 new mutual/unit-linked funds • AUM :ytd 5% to 84 bn from 80 bn • Retail funds (42 bn) : 4% • Private assets (13 bn) : 4% • Institutional & group assets (28 bn): 6% Other Bonds & MM: 13% Capital- guaranteed: 48% Balanced: 12% Profit contribution down slightly
Corporate banking : Profit contribution: ytd 140m 10% (ROAC 9%) Cost decrease ( 7%) due to strict cost control, mainly in Belgium / Western Europe No repeat of 2002 one-off revenues Provisions for problem loans (56 bp on RWA), mainly for the electricity sector in the US Market activities : Profit contribution: ytd 117 m 51 %(ROAC 14%) Very strong performance in money and capital market products Equity trading: still weak (break-even for KBC Securities at operating level) KBC Financial Products : satisfactory result but negative MtM for equity derivatives Corporate and investment banking Profit contribution : corporate banking and market activities
Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Performance, banking Performance, insurance Outlook
P&C, underwriting result Premium income Combined ratio Excl R/I Premiums ytd 15% org. growth 784 99% 95% 94% 684 614 Exceptionally low level Very sound business, in ‘03 partly driven by upward trend in rates and in general by strong risk and cost discipline
9M 03:95 %Belgium 9M 03:5%Central Europe Life business, underwriting result Quarterly net premium income 9M 03: 1 991 m 1 369 m interest-guar. 622 m unit-linked Premiums ytd 9 %organic growth 9M 02: 1816 m 1 050 m interest-guar. 766 m unit-linked 9M 01: 1 230 m 299 m interest-guar. 931 m unit-linked Very strong growth (bancassurance-driven)
Insurance, investment income Suffering from low bond yields (*) incl. write-back from provision for financial risk (15m in ‘03)and excl. value adj. for unit-linked products
Insurance, non-recurring items Value adjustments on shares offset by non-recurring income Provision for financial risks, balance : 100 m EUR
Interim results at 30 Sep 2003 Highlights Performance, banking Performance, insurance Outlook
Profit outlook • Interest rate environment and general financial climate have improved. Economic outlook is more favourable. • On the other hand, further loan losses in 4Q cannot be ruled out (credit review, Poland). • Profit ‘03 expectation : at least the ’02 level(based on current information and assumption of stable stock market)
Contribution per business, year-to-date Net profit in m EUR 860 744 747 ROE banking : 11.1% -2% ROE insurance : 16.3% +20% ROE Group: 13.2% Group result : 3/4 from banking, 1/4 from insurance
Year-To-Date Highlights • In banking : high commission income (y-o-y +16%) and in 3Q strongly improving interest income. • In insurance : high premium volume (y-o-y + 11%), but pressure on investment income. • Zero cost growth y.o.y. In banking : cost level down 1%. • Strong technical result in non-life : combined ratio 95.4% (excl. reinsurance : 93.8%). • Relatively high loan loss provisions (425 m). • Value impairments on shares (100 m, but offset). • Solid solvency : 8.6% (Tier 1 - bank) and 318% (insurance)
-0.4% +0.1% +0.1% Main changes in scope of consolidation 2004 2002 2003 Impact (*) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Full consolidation, retroactively to 1Q CSOBInsurance NLB Bank Equitymethod E X P E C T E D Ergo Insurance Full consolidation Krefima Bank Deconsolidation(previously full consolidation) (full consolidation, previously equity method) Warta Insurance Limited net impact of changes in consolidation (*) Impact on gross operating income
Group, key performance ratios Getting closer to strategic objectives (*) Excluding reinsurance (**) Including unrealized gains
Areas of activity, profit contribution Profit contribution (*) year-to-date Strong rebound in Belgian retail. High adverse impact of Poland. (*) Profit excluding minority interests
Interest spreads in Belgium, banking Interest margin Spread on new loans Going forward, increasing market rates could fuel top-line growth
Economic outlook Source : KBC Asset Management, November 2003
Value adjustments, investment portfolio 125 DJ Eurostoxx -6 -35 -220 -223 Significant value adjustments in ‘02 and in 1Q 03 (offset in insurance business by non-recurring result)