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Land use and transport

Land use and transport. Where are we ?. Remember , there are four exam categories Demand modelling with Logit Assignment LUTI Models and appraisal. Content Demand. Demand ( contd ) Logit model (repetition) Nested logit model

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Land use and transport

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  1. Land use and transport

  2. Wherearewe? Remember, therearefourexamcategories • Demandmodelling with Logit • Assignment • LUTI • Models and appraisal

  3. ContentDemand • Demand (contd) Logitmodel (repetition) Nestedlogitmodel Trip generation, Trip distribution and modal split Locationalchoicemodelling (carownership)

  4. Assignment 2. Assignment Dec 4

  5. Content 3. LUTI • This is the topic today!

  6. Content 3. LUTI • This is the topic today! • Chapter 5 in vWbook (alsorecommendch 9 on accessibility)

  7. ContentModelling and Appraisal 4. Modelling and Appraisal OthermodelsthanLogit Car ownershipmodelling Schedulingmodels(Mon Dec 9) Appraisal: What is it? What is it, really? Critique and defense(more on Dec 16)

  8. Whydowetravel?

  9. Whydowetravel? Travel is Derived Demand

  10. Derived demand ”The theory of utilitariantraveldemand”

  11. Derived demand • There is no benefit from the trip in itself (per se)! • It is the activities at the destination wewant/need/deriveutility from • Dwelling, workplace, services, facilities… Depends on the preferences for activities and the (generalizedcost) to reach the destination

  12. Derived demand This is really the central core: Depends on the preferences for activities and the (generalizedcost) to reach the destination

  13. Urban change process • Networks and land use • Workplaces and housing • Employment and population • Travel, goods transport speed

  14. LUTI

  15. Land-use and transport

  16. Land-use variables • Density (first order effect, second order effect) • Mixed land use • Neighbourhood design • Connectors: PT • Interactions: land use -> demand for PT -> supply for PT

  17. Iftravel is deriveddemand • Preferences for activities • Generalizedcost Then… … demand for travelwilldepend on • spatial structure of activities(land use)and • determinants of generalizedcost(friction, impedance, resistance, deterrancefunction…. associated with the transport system)

  18. (Remembergeneralizedcost) • Pecuniary (monetary) cost • In-vehicletravel time • Waiting time • Mode specificconstant • … anyeffort to cover the distancebetween the origin and the destination

  19. First attempt In a simple four step model

  20. Second attempt In a morecleverfour step model

  21. Travel demand and the 3Ds • Density • Diversity • Design ”Elasticities are moderate to modest, butcertainly not inconsequential” Cervero and Kockelman (1998)

  22. Self selection problem • Attitudes are important for travelbehaviour (somewouldcall this preferences) • Attitudes are important for locationalchoice • Therefore, it is difficult to disentanglewhat is what! Locationalchoice: residentialchoice, choice of workplacelocation, choice of shopping destination, or anyother destination/activity

  23. So, a new attempt Complexinterplay of all variables Impact of LU caneasily be overestimated, if not carefullyaddressed

  24. A sustainability paradox • Land-usepolicieswillhaveonly a minor effect as a measure for increasedsustainability • Land-usepattern is a dominatingfactor with a hugeimpact of sustainability

  25. So why the different conclusions? • Different (some bad) research methods • Different levels • Different geographicalscales • Time horizon • Differencesbetweencountries • Impact of policy

  26. Land use matters

  27. Oh yes, it matters

  28. Evaluation 1. Indicators 2. Evaluationmethods

  29. 1. Indicators • Accessibility To whatextentdoes the spatial structure and the transport system enableus to travelbetweenlocationswewant to visit and therebyparticipate in the activitiesdesired? Accessibilitymeasuresbased on • The spatial structure and transport networkonly • … or alsobased on people’srevealedpreferences (behavior)

  30. 1. Indicators • Accessibility Accessibilitymeasuresbased on • The spatial structure and transport networkonly (mostmeasuresused in geography, and travel time indicators) • … or alsobased on people’srevealedpreferences (behavior) (so-calledutilitybasedindicators, used in transport modelling and economics)

  31. 1. Indicators (ii) Saftey (iii) Environmentalimpactindicators (iv) Livablestreets (v) Health (vi) Non-usebenefits: option value …. (See PROSPECTS MethodologicalGuidebook 3.3)

  32. 2. Evaluationmethods • CBA • MCA

  33. Relationshipbetweenconsumer surplus and accessibility Consumer surplus can be measured in terms of the log sumformula It capturesboth the benefitsdue to GC, and the benefitsderived from the activities in the destinations!

  34. Ex Section 5.7 in vW Assume a closed region Suppose wecanshrink the region r -> r/2 Area -> Area / 4 Assume that configuration of activities are keptconstant -> All distances are reducedreduced by 50% If no behaviouralchange, GC would be reduced by 50% r r

  35. Ex Section 5.7 in vW All distances are reduced by 50% Butnowwecantravelmore! Suppose that CTTB hypothesisholds By tradingofftravel time disutilityagainst activity utilities, peoplecanchoosemore destinations, or moreremote destinations In the end, no change in total travel! Butcertainly, there are accessibilitybenefits! r r

  36. Ex Section 5.7 in vW r r (Se PMG chapter 9.1-9.4, the latter is rathertechnical, not included in courseliterature)

  37. Integratedland-use and transport system policies • Land usemeasures • Infrastructure provision • Infrastructure management • Operations • Information provision • Attitudinalmeasures • Pricing Ifwecouldusepolicies in concert….

  38. Take-aways • Transport is deriveddemand (surprice!) • Travel demandwilldepend on spatial structure and generalizedcost (transport system) • Discuss different time scales at operation • Discussionaboutland-use and transport demand interaction wrtimpacts, in particular the ’LUTI sustainability paradox’, and reconciliationefforts • Discuss the concept of accessibility • Discuss the potential of integratedLand-use and transport policies

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