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Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability

Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability. Brown University Providence, 8 April 2011. Outline. The rise of climate adaptation in LAC Colombia & the global climate talks Colombia’s climate vulnerability How to shoot the rapids and survive?.

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Slow Boil: Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency of climate vulnerability

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  1. Slow Boil:Colombia’s response to the chronic emergency ofclimate vulnerability Brown University Providence, 8 April 2011

  2. Outline • The rise of climate adaptation in LAC • Colombia & the global climate talks • Colombia’s climate vulnerability • How to shoot the rapids and survive?

  3. The rise of climate adaptation “A […] critical element for success in Cancún is to strike a better balance when considering climate adaptation and mitigation” Yvo de Boer2 • “It was understood that [the Kyoto Protocol] would only include commitments to reduce emissions… • Michael Zammit-Cutajar1

  4. The rise of climate adaptation LAC • Scaled-up interest / participation • Shifting priorities

  5. The rise of climate adaptation Just 11% of accumulated global emissions (1990-2005)

  6. Big differences in GHG emissions…

  7. … but climate vulnerability is a common concern

  8. The rise of climate adaptation Daños millones USD 2008 Ejemplo curva de vulnerabilidad para inundación en Guyana Caso extremo 2030 Probabilidad de ocurrencia Un evento cada X años Probabilidad de ocurrencia disminuye

  9. Colombia & the global climate talks COP 1 Berlin 1995 COP 6 Bonn 2001 < 2006 • Niche area (Envt. & Foreign Affairs) • CDM / Forests focus COP 10 Buenos Aires 2004 COP 12 Nairobi 2006

  10. Colombia & the global climate talks 2007 – 2009 • Strategic relations w/ , like-minded partners beyond LAC (e.g. AOSIS) • Leadership role on adaptation / finance • Pres. Uribe in group of 25 leaders at CPH

  11. Colombia & the global climate talks 2010 < • CPH Accord / Cancun pledge • Cartagena Dialogue • Broader x-Govt participation

  12. Colombia flood emergency, 2010-11 2.3 million affected in 28 of 32 states 310 dead 6,700 homes destroyed

  13. Economic impacts Short term: Crop loss Food price spike Localized (household / community impacts) Long term: It depends!?

  14. Failed humanitarian response • Late • Poorly coordinated • Inadequate (below international standards)

  15. Colombia’s climate vulnerability What went wrong? • High exposure: • Yes, but not worst in 60 years…1988 La Niña • Yearly victims in Colombia • Resources: • No, plenty of resources! • Response coordination: • Yes, Politically-bungled • UN didn’t help • Underlying structural vulnerabilities • Yes! Inequality • Persistent failure to embrace ARR

  16. How to shoot the rapids and survive? • Embrace ‘disaster risk management’: • Political & operational power of Govt. disaster management agency • Comprehensive, sustainable, effective disaster risk management policy: • Sustained investment in local disaster management capacities • Structural fund for climate adaptation & risk management • Reconcile with countervailing development pathway

  17. Conclusions • Climate adaptation, Latin American imperative • Colombia, international climate champion • Colombia, domestic disaster victim • Colombia (and LAC) can build resilience, but only by reconciling divergent paths

  18. Notes • Climate Change TV interview (video), June 2009: http://www.climate-change.tv/michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2009 • “Copenhagen shows we need caution in Cancún,” Nature, 24 November 2010: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101124/full/468477a.html

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