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AOGCMs

AOGCMs. Equations involved in the construction of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Structure of a General Circulation Model (GCM) Models with coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic layers are termed AOGCMs. Time step involved in integration. Where x is the grid size, c is the

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AOGCMs

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  1. AOGCMs

  2. Equations involved in the construction of General Circulation Models (GCMs).

  3. Structure of a General Circulation Model (GCM) Models with coupled Atmospheric and Oceanic layers are termed AOGCMs Time step involved in integration Where x is the grid size, c is the propagation speed

  4. Major AOGCMs

  5. Tests of Climate Models

  6. Can AOGCMs “predict” the climate of the past 150 years? Mean Global temperature trend since 1850

  7. Corrections to Historical Climate Data: It is necessary to check the derived temperature history using Independent temperature proxies:

  8. Climate data from Boreholes

  9. Coral Bleaching

  10. Trends in glaciers over the past few centuries.

  11. Pasterze Glacier, Austria 2004 1875

  12. Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

  13. Scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc. for the next century are essential for the prediction of anthropogenic effects on the global and regional climates. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has, over the years prepared a number of such scenarios. In 1992 it released the IS92 scenarios. In 2000, the IPCC proposed a number of new scenarios, known as the SRES scenarios

  14. SRES Scenario “Storylines”

  15. SRES Storylines continued:

  16. To act as useful inputs to climate models, the SRES Storylines must be quantified in terms of population growth, economic growth, energy supplies and usage, mix of renewable/fossil/nuclear fuels, technology development, etc.

  17. Projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

  18. A1B

  19. Sea ice extent

  20. Changes in ocean pH and Aragonite saturation. Aragonite is a meta-stable form of calcium carbonate. Calcium carbonate will dissolve at levels below 100% saturation, removing an important sink of dissolved carbon in the surface ocean.

  21. Sea rise due to thermal expansion

  22. Projections of total sea-level rise due to all causes

  23. Simulations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations under various emission reduction scenarios.

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