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Tradeoff Analysis and Minimum-Data Modeling John Antle Jetse Stoorvogel

Tradeoff Analysis and Minimum-Data Modeling John Antle Jetse Stoorvogel. Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change, Nairobi September 24-26 2008. The challenge: policy-relevant assessment of agricultural sustainability

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Tradeoff Analysis and Minimum-Data Modeling John Antle Jetse Stoorvogel

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  1. Tradeoff Analysis and Minimum-Data Modeling John Antle Jetse Stoorvogel Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change, Nairobi September 24-26 2008

  2. The challenge: policy-relevant assessment of agricultural sustainability • How to quantify concept of sustainability to support informed policy decision making? • Identify stakeholder priorities (indicators) and strategies (scenarios) • Understand how indicators respond to changes in the system (tradeoffs and win-wins)

  3. The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists

  4. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists

  5. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists • Identify key sustainability indicators and tradeoffs • Identify technology and policy scenarios

  6. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios Coordinated Disciplinary Research The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists

  7. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios Coordinated Disciplinary Research The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists • Identify key disciplines in research team • Define spatial and temporal scales of analysis for • disciplinary integration and policy analysis

  8. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios Coordinated Disciplinary Research Communicate results to stakeholders The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists

  9. Indicators, tradeoffs and scenarios Coordinated Disciplinary Research Communicate results to stakeholders The Challenge: Support informed decision makingThe Approach: Tradeoff Analysis A participatory process, not a model • Public stakeholders • Policy makers • Scientists

  10. Implementing the TOA Approach: the TOA Software A modular approach to integrate spatial data and disciplinary models to simulate agricultural systems on a site-specific basis and aggregate to a level relevant for policy analysis.

  11. Tradeoff Analysis: assessing technology & policy options • Tradeoff curves: feasible combinations of sustainability indicators • Technology and policy scenarios: using data and modeling tools to explore options and find win-win solutions. Health & Environment People may choose to trade off income for health or environmental quality, or vice-versa! Why not do BCA? Farm Income

  12. Example: Using TOA for analysis of CC mitigation, impacts & adaptation in Machakos, Kenya • (Antle & Stoorvogel, Env & Dev Econ 2008) • climate models: data and downscaling of IPCC scenarios w/wo aerosols • crop and livestock models: suitability for CC analysis of impacts & adaptation • economic data and models: adaptation through changes in land use, management • environmental process models

  13. semi-subsistence farming system, maize, vegetables, subsistence crops & livestock • serious soil nutrient & SOM depletion • more than 60% of households below poverty line ($1/day/person)

  14. The Machakos case study

  15. The critical role of spatial heterogeneity

  16. Main issues • Population pressure

  17. Main issues Population pressure Land degradation

  18. Main issues Population pressure Land degradation Climate (drought) • Low farm incomes • Low farm productivity • Low soil fertility

  19. Climate change, poverty and nutrient depletion with maize price scenario

  20. Climate change, poverty and nutrient depletion with vegetable price scenario

  21. Vegetable prices with irrigation investment

  22. Spatial distribution of poverty (poverty mapping)

  23. Towards the Minimum-Data Approach • TOA is one way to quantify the concept of agricultural sustainability • but data requirements are very high, models are complex • for some questions (e.g., technology adoption, ecosystem services) we can use simpler models with lower data requirements to obtain a first-order estimate of economic feasibility of new technologies

  24. Comparison of EP and MD models: Carbon contract participation in Machakos, Kenya Case Study (Full model = 700 parms, MD = 75)

  25. Plan for the Rest of the Workshop • Systems modeling: the Machakos case • Minimum-Data modeling: economics • Minimum-Data modeling: bio-physical • Minimum-Data software • Exercises • Improved maize variety • Climate change impacts • Sweet potato adoption • Adaptation to climate change • Project planning

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