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Briefing to Premier & Cabinet 18 October 2010. Very Wet during 2010. Record Rainfall during September. Rainfall Totals for week ending 14 October with some local falls 300-400 mm over the SE corner. Southern Oscillation Index. La Nina. El Nino. 7 TCs + Cat 3 TC DAVID makes landfall.
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Rainfall Totals for week ending 14 October with some local falls 300-400 mm over the SE corner
Southern Oscillation Index La Nina El Nino
7 TCs + Cat 3 TC DAVID makes landfall Two Cat 4-5 TCs – Mackay & Innisfail Cat 3 TC AIVU makes landfall Only 4 occasions in the past 130 years when the September Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been 20 or greater (relatively strong La Nina) 1917, 1975, 1988 & 2010 (November 1973 ahead of the 1974 floods – SOI in mid 30s)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly September 2009
Multi-Model Ensemble – 10 Global Models October - December
Multi-Model Ensemble – 4 “Best” Models October - December
(Embargoed) Rainfall Outlook for November - January NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Bureau of Meteorology National Climate Centre Outlook for Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Forecast Region 2010-11
At least 6 Tropical Cyclones on 11 occasions in past 50 years- but not seen since the La Nina seasons of the late 1990s
El Nino Natural climate variability is a dominating factor in Queensland especially in regards to tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity La Nina
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) - which is a good reflection of the strength of the monsoon - is the most significant event since 1985
Seasonal Outlook for Queensland • This is not a run-of-the-mill La Nina • The current La Nina event is now quite strong and well established - and the majority of global computer models indicate that it will persist until at least March next year • No two La Ninas are the same although La Nina events are usually - but not always - associated with enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea and above normal rainfall over much of Queensland • Therefore expect with some degree of confidence a fairly active cyclone season and a continuation of the above average rains and associated flooding • Unable to predict very far in advance where cyclones will cross the coast or which rivers will flood • Many catchments are saturated so runoff is likely to occur with less rainfall than normally required