An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch

1. An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch Arun Kumar Chief, Development Branch Climate Prediction Center

2. Current Activities • Global and Regional Climate Analysis • Real-time Global Climate Monitoring • Forecast Tool Development/ Improvement • Predictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments • Climate Diagnostics and Attribution • Applied Research • Outreach and Service • International Activities • Climate Test-Bed Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

3. Global and Regional Climate Analysis • Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, R2, NARR, GODAS) • Disseminates associated datasets to customers and partners • Analyses are either model based or objective • The analysis efforts are the backbone for real-time global climate monitoring Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

4. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans SSH SST HC Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

5. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans ENSO Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

6. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Droughts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

7. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Surface Temperature Rainfall Soil Moisture Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

8. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere Variability Teleconnections Storm Tracks Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

9. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere MJO Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

10. Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Stratosphere SSW Total Ozone Ozone Hole Trends Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

11. Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments ENSO Diagnostics Discussion Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

12. Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments Climate Forecast System Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

13. Climate Diagnostics and Attribution Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

14. Applied Research • Developing improved analyses • Enhancing data bases (data archeology) • Quality control and analysis procedures • Consistency among analyses for different variables • New objectively analyzed fields • Improving forecast tools • Multi-model ensemble techniques • Drought • Bias correction techniques • Forecast consolidation techniques • Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…) Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

15. Applied Research • Understanding predictability for various time-scales • MJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interaction • Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…) • Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc. • Developing new products • Monitoring of ENSO heat budget • Objective drought outlook Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011

16. Summary • Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwide • Analysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user base • Real-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditions • Applied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction efforts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011