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Prognostic Ozone Modeling using MM5 and CAMx for the South Coast Air Basin

Prognostic Ozone Modeling using MM5 and CAMx for the South Coast Air Basin. Sang-Mi Lee and Joe Cassmassi South Coast Air Quality Management District 21865 Copley Dr, Diamond Bar, CA 91765. Air Quality Forecasting and Modeling in the South Coast Air Basin.

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Prognostic Ozone Modeling using MM5 and CAMx for the South Coast Air Basin

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  1. Prognostic Ozone Modeling using MM5 and CAMx for the South Coast Air Basin Sang-Mi Lee and Joe Cassmassi South Coast Air Quality Management District 21865 Copley Dr, Diamond Bar, CA 91765

  2. Air Quality Forecasting and Modeling in the South Coast Air Basin • Operational Daily Air Quality Forecast for over 40 years • Regional Modeling Applications since mid 1980’s • Daily Forecast Includes • Ozone • PM2.5 and PM10 • CO • NO2 • High Winds • Open Burning

  3. South Coast Air Basin Los Angeles Downtown Pacific Ocean (One grid length = 5 km)

  4. SCAQMD Prognostic Modeling System

  5. Real-Time Modeling System 00 UTC 00 UTC 00 UTC 00 UTC 16 PST 16 PST 16 PST 16 PST 48 hr Forecast 24 hr Spin-Up Actual Computation: 7 hours Present • Starting at 18 PST on Day 1 • Perform 24 hour Spin-up & 48 hour Forecast • Results will be on internet by 01 PST of Day2

  6. Web Display & Updates

  7. Model Performances High Ozone Episodes Extended Periods: June to August 2010 Statistical Evaluation

  8. June 5th, 2010 : Synoptic Pattern

  9. Sounding at 1200 UTC June 5th 2010

  10. 1h-O3 max: 141 ppb @ Crestline

  11. Synoptic Pattern on Jul 10, 2010

  12. Sounding at 1200 UTC Jul 10 2010

  13. 1hr Max O3: 139 ppb @ Crestline

  14. 1hr Max O3 at Riverside

  15. 1hr Max O3 at Crestline

  16. Scatter Plots

  17. Performance Measures

  18. Sensitivity Tests Initial Fields 24 hr (Cold Start: 00 LST) vs. 6 hr (Warm Start: 1600 LST) Forecast Length 24hr Forecast vs 48 Forecast

  19. 24hr vs. 6hr Spinup 1-hr Max O3 from All the monitoring stations in the Basin during the period of June-October, 2010

  20. Forecast Length: Day 1 vs. Day 2 1-hr Max O3 from All the monitoring stations in the Basin during the period of June-October, 2010

  21. Statistics

  22. Summary & Conclusions • A prognostic modeling system with MM5 and CAMx turned out to perform reasonably well to capture day-to-day trend and spatial variability of Ozone. • The Duration of spinup period and forecast length influenced forecast accuracy, but turned out to be not critical. • Demonstrated model performance and computational advance will make operational numerical AQ forecasts feasible in the near future.

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