Week 5 – Special Topics

1. Week 5 – Special Topics

2. Risk Management Best Practices

3. Traps, Alarms & Escapes • From Navy Best Practices • Traps - think have risks covered by following procedures • Alarms – assumptions that cause trouble • Consequences – if nothing is done

11. Risk Checklist

12. Risk Management Training

13. Why RM Training is Needed • Weak backgrounds in risk management • Mistaken concepts • Assessment is RM – skip planning & monitoring • Mitigation is only handling strategy • All risk can be eliminated • Focus on performance, omit cost & schedule

14. Tailoring RM Training • Adjust to different project team groups • Sr. management • Working level engineers • Address issues each group is likely to face • Address tailoring RM activities to meet program needs – not one-size fits all

15. Software Risk Management

16. SW Risk as a Special Case • Virtual • Can’t physically touch/feel to assess • History of latent defects • Many interfaces • Hardware-to-software • Operating system-to-operating code • Incompatible combinations • Update frequency • Multiple versions • Upward/downward compatibility

17. Taxonomy of SW Risk

18. Boehm’s Top 10 Software Risks

19. Boehm’s Top 10 Software Risks

20. Identification Strategies • Review Schedule & Networks • Review Cost Estimation Parameters • Perform Interviews • Revisit Lessons Learned • Develop a Risk taxonomy • Brainstorm and play “what if” • Re-sort the watch list (e.g., by source)

21. Identification- Schedule Risks • Use the planning or baseline schedule • Evaluate the activity network view • Look for nodes with: • High fan-in (many activities terminate at a single node) • High fan-out (many activities emanate from a single node) • No predecessors

22. ID- Cost Risk Drivers • Consider specific areas of concern that can lead to problems: • Personnel experience, availability • Requirement complexity, firmness • Scheduling and prediction of task and partition times • Hardware requirements, interfaces, constraints

23. ISO Risk Probability Table

24. ISO Risk Consequence Table

25. ISO Risk Contour

26. SW Risk Handling • Avoidance - de-scoping objectives • Assumption – latent defects • Control – user acceptance testing • Transfer – from software to firmware or hardware

27. SW Metrics

28. Commercial vs. DoD/NASA Perspective on Risk Management

29. Commercial vs. Gov’t Perspective • Different market conditions • Different best practices • Different likelihoods for similar issues As always, tailor RM to program needs

30. Market Differences • How is risk impacted?

31. SW Development Best Practices • How is risk impacted?

32. Risk Category Likelihood

33. Overview of Risk Management Tools

34. Cautions in Tool Selection • A good tool for one organization may not be a good match for another • Tailor RM to the program needs • The tool should never dictate the process • Define process, then choose compatible tool • Be compatible with program culture

35. Effective Use of a Tool • RM is more than using a RM tool • Tool must efficiently & effectively integrate into program • Resources required • Level of detail, complexity • Focus of tool – e.g., program phase

36. RM Data Base Considerations • Provide sufficient configuration control • Accessible to all team members • Ability to accept anonymous comments • Support program needs • Reporting • Monitoring • Captures lessons learned • Fulfills contractual requirements • Balance costs/value

37. Tools Comparison • @Risk & Crystal Ball – licensed software • Monte Carlo simulation add-in for Excel • Select desired distribution function & define parameters • Provide data and generate a plausible distribution function • Provides statistics and graphical output • User provides risk analysis structure

38. Probability-Consequence Screening • Developed by the Air Force • Risk events assigned a probability & consequence for performance, schedule & cost • Position in consequence screening matrix determines risk score • User assigns Hi, Med, Low ranges • Generates reports and graphical output • www.pmcop.dau.mil

39. Probability-Consequence Screening

40. Probability-Consequence Screening

41. Risk Matrix • Excel – based model • Collects inputs in watch list format • Uses best practices (ordinal) breakout for probability & consequence • Orders events by Borda rank & assigns risk level • Generates action plan reports and graphical output • www.mitre.org

42. Risk Matrix

43. Risk Matrix

44. Risk Radar • Access – based, licensed software • Can establish standard values for risk categorization • Manual or automatic risk prioritization • Complies with ISO, SEI CMMI & Government standards • Generates detailed, summary & metrics reports • Demo available: www.iceincusa.com/products_tools.htm

45. Risk Radar

46. Risk Radar

47. Risk Radar

48. TRIMS Technical Risk ID & Mitigation • Knowledge-based system • Utilizes SEI & Navy Best Practices to collect data on past experiences • Measures technical risk rather than cost & schedule • Most applicable to design efforts • Can tailor categories, templates & questions • Generates status, next action & overdue action reports • www.bmpcoe.org

49. TRIMS Technical Risk ID & Mitigation

50. TRIMS Technical Risk ID & Mitigation