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$60,000. $3,000. 1930. 2000. 1900. Inflation Adjusted U.S. Per Capita Income Source: Financial Times. The Wall Street Journal , September 21, 2010.
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$60,000 $3,000 1930 2000 1900 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Per Capita Income Source: Financial Times
“None of us knows what is going to happen, and there is no one to tell us.” Ecclesiastes 8:7
“Our experts’ predictions barely beat random guesses. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be…The better forecasters were like Berlin’s foxes: self-critical, eclectic thinkers who were willing to update their beliefs when faced with contrary evidence, were doubtful of grand schemes and were rather modest about their predictive ability. The less successful were like hedgehogs. They tended to have one big, beautiful idea that they loved to stretch. They tended to be very articulate and very persuasive as to why their ideas explained everything. The media often loves hedgehogs.” Prof. Philip Tetlock Money, March 2009 After studying 82,000 predictions
“I bought the field of Hanamel…The Lord Almighty has said that houses, fields, and vineyards will again be bought in this Land.” Jeremiah 32:9, 15
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” Sir John M. Templeton
“Over the long run, great investors win by going where others won’t. Sir John Templeton made his fortune buying stocks at the start of World War II. A half-century later, he made a killing snapping up U.S. equities after the 1987 crash. Sir John said that one of the biggest reasons for his success was his willingness ‘to buy at the point of maximum pessimism.’ Yet we buy too much when the news is good and sell when the news is bad.” Money Magazine Note: Individual funds may differ significantly from the securities held in the S&P 500 index The index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment; therefore its performance will not reflect the expenses and costs associated with active management of an actual fund.
Consumer Sentiment 1990 2000 2010 1980
D. Euphoria E. Irrational Confidence C. Belief F. Doubt • Fear • Animal Spirits B. Skepticism • Fear
“Ever since Joseph, seers have tried—with rather less success—to predict economic upturns and downturns. Economic forecasts produced by feeding numbers into complex models are notoriously bad at predicting turning points, because they tend to extrapolate the recent past.” The Economist
“Can fiscal and monetary policy acting at their optimum eliminate the business cycle? The answer, in my judgment, is no, because there is no tool for changing human nature. Too often people are prone to recurring bouts of optimism and pessimism that manifest themselves from time to time in the build-up or cessation of speculative excesses.” Alan Greenspan Testimony Before Congress
Greed Prudence Fear Fear The Divine Spirit for Life
“If a bull gores someone to death, it is to be stoned but its owner is not to be punished. But if the bull has been in the habit of attacking people and its owner had been warned but did not keep it penned up--then it is to be stoned and its owner is to be put to death also.” Exodus 21:28
“For six years, plant your land and gather in what it produces. But in the seventh year let it rest, and do not harvest anything that grows on it. The poor may eat what grows there, and the wildanimals can have what is left.” Exodus 23:10
“If you are in a hurry to get rich, you are going to be punished.” Proverbs 28:20
“Show me a righteous ruler and I will show you a happy people. Show me a wicked ruler and I will show you a miserable people…When the king is concerned with justice, the nation will be strong; but when he is only concerned with money, he will ruin his country.” Proverbs 29:2,4
“The king is not to have a large number of horses for his army.” Deuteronomy 17:16
“Do not mistreat a foreigner; you know how it feels to be a foreigner because you were a foreigner in Egypt.” Exodus 23:9
“The United States has a GDP per head of $46,000. Mexico’s is $8,000. So it is not surprising that millions of Mexicans have entered America illegally in search of a better life. In these circumstances, you would think, America needs an agreed policy on immigration and a set of laws to match. But that would require some responsible behavior by politicians. Many have instead either abdicated responsibility or gone out of their way to act irresponsibly, dumping the issue in the laps of the courts and the police.” The Economist July 31, 2010
Our New, Old World of Responsibility “There are doubtless as many ways of associating Jesus Christ with the responsible life as there have been ways of associating him with the ideal life or the obedient or dutiful one…The Christian ethos so uniquely exemplified in Christ himself is an ethics of universal responsibility.” H. Richard Niebuhr The Responsible Self
“Jesus did not speak directly against wealth and money lending, but he did emphasize the dangers of riches and the rich man’s responsibility for the poor…The question for the future is whether an economy such as America’s can retain the value of individual freedom while recapturing the sense of social responsibility. Christianity has a stake in that question because it is a moral issue with implications for the future of the church.” Baker’s Dictionary of Christian Ethics
“Every few hundred years in Western history there occurs a sharp transformation. We are currently living through just such a transformation…Political and social theory, since Plato and Aristotle, has focused on power. But responsibility must be the principle which informs and organizes the post-capitalist society. The society of organizations, the knowledge society, demands a responsibility-basedorganization.” Peter Drucker Post-Capitalist Society
“It is futile to argue, as does the American economist and Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, that a business has only one responsibility: economic performance. Economic performance is the first responsibility of a business. A business that does not show a profit at least equal to its cost of capital is socially irresponsible. But economic performance is not the sole responsibility of a business.” Peter Drucker Post-Capitalist Society
“Responsibility, not to a superior, but to one’s conscience, the awareness of a duty not exacted by compulsion, the necessity to decide which of the things one values are to be sacrificed to others, and to bear the consequences of one’s own decision, are the very essence of any morals which deserve the name…A movement whose main promise is the relief from responsibility cannot but be immoral in its effects, however lofty the ideals to which it owes its birth.” F. A. Hayek Nobel Laureate in Economics
“Capitalism looks back to the future: Capitalism 1 was a world of laissez faire. This concept dominated economics and economic activity from The Wealth of Nations to the Great Depression. Capitalism 2, the product of that depression, recognized the interdependence of politics and economics and gave government a role in macro-economic management. It fell apart in the inflation of the 1970’s. The coming of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher inaugurated Capitalism 3, a regime of market fundamentalism in which inequality widened and the financial sector flourished. The credit crunch of 2007-08 is the trigger for an equally substantial revision--Capitalism 4. The Financial Times Reviewing the book Capitalism 4.0 July 19, 2010
“The Future of Capitalism: Now Is the Time for a Less Selfish Capitalism… Accelerated economic growth is not a goal for which we should make large sacrifices. In particular, we should not sacrifice the most important source of happiness, which is the quality of human relationships. We have sacrificed too many of these in the name of efficiency and productivity growth. Most of all, we have sacrificed values. In the 1960’s, 60% of adults said they believed ‘people could be trusted.’ Today the figure is 30%, in both Britain and the U.S…So we need a trend away from excessive individualism and towards greater social responsibility. That is the kind of capitalism we want.” Lord Richard Layard Financial Times, March 12, 2009
“Everyone is talking about the new rules of capitalism, which are, don’t just think about the company within the four walls of the company; think about your obligations to society.” Indra Nooyi Chair & CEO, Pepsi Davos Economic Forum The Financial Times July 12, 2010
Responsible Investing: • Prudence + B) Ethics = C) Investment Decisions • “The decision to invest in one place rather than another, in one productive sector rather than another, is always a moral and cultural choice.” • John Paul II • The return and principal value of investments fluctuate with changes in market conditions. • When redeemed, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. • Investments seeking higher rates of return generally involve a higher degree of principal risk.
“Ethics and spiritual principles should be the basis of everything we do in life. All that we say, all that we think. Every activity should be based on that, including the selection of investments. You wouldn’t want to be an owner of a company producing harm for the public, and therefore you wouldn’t want to be the owner of a share of a company doing so. We should all give great attention to that.” Sir John M. Templeton
“Some advisors [including Christian advisors] have been reluctant to use social funds, fearing they would under-perform. Because they must screen out undesirable stocks, social funds may be saddled with extra research expenses, critics argue. In fact, the evidence on fees and returns is mixed. The average large-blend fund tracked by Morningstar has an expense ratio of 1.27%, compared to 1.10% for the average socially responsible fund. Academic studies have shown that conventional funds do not out-perform social funds over long periods.” Registered Rep Magazine August 2008
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged stock index. It is a registered trademark of the Standard & Poor’s corporation. Investors cannot invest in the S&P 500 index.
“If all the super-rich disappeared, the world economy would not even notice. The super-rich are irrelevant to the economy. The combined sources of money from the retail investors, pension funds and retirement plans of all individuals is the fastest growing source of money. The most important source of capital is the average mutual fund transaction of $10,000.” Peter Drucker
* “Sin Stock” Screening * Socially Responsible Investing * Biblically Responsible Investing * Community Development Banking * Micro-Enterprise Lending
Socially Responsible Investing The return and principal value of mutual fund shares fluctuate with changes in market conditions. When redeemed, shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments seeking to achieve higher rates of return generally involve a higher degree of risk of principal. All information has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and it is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy.
Faith-based Investing & Biblically Responsible Investing
“If China and India consumed as much per capita as the United States, by 2030, those two countries alone would require one additional planet earth to meet their needs.” Worldwatch Institute International investing entails special risk considerations, including currency fluctuations, lower liquidity, economic and political risks and differences in accounting methods. Past performance cannot guarantee future performance.
“The developed countries have a tremendous stake in the Third World. Unless there is rapid development there—both economic and social—the developed countries will be inundated by a human flood of Third World immigrants far beyond their economic, social or cultural capacity to absorb.” Peter Drucker
“Near the end of the Old Testament, the Prophet Zechariah says that when God’s day comes, there will be no distinction between the sacred and the profane, temple and marketplace…The Reign of God is not about churchiness at all. It has everything to do with everything.” Richard Rohr Jesus’ Plan For A New World
“Good intentions are not always socially responsible.” Peter Drucker “Now that you know these things, happy are you if you do them.” Jesus Christ
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