Module 6

1. Module 6 Reporting of Mitigation Assessments in National Communications

2. Module 6Reporting of Mitigation Assessments in National Communications • Reporting commitments • Overall goals • Suggestions for reporting • Suggested results to include • Other aspects of reporting • Preparation of Project Proposals

3. Reporting Commitments Article 4, paragraph 1, and Article 12, paragraph 1, of the convention provide for each Party to report to the COP: • information on its emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol (greenhouse gas inventories); • national or, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate, and to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention); • any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention.

4. Overall Goals • Mitigation assessments form an important part of Parties’ national communications on climate change. • They are read both by the international scientific community and by national and international policy makers. • They therefore need both a high level of scientific rigor and a high level of clarity and comprehensibility. • Raw modeling results need to be reinterpreted in a form more familiar to policy makers.

5. Suggestions for Reporting • Typically, energy and non-energy sectors can each be reported upon separately. • Efforts to integrate energy and non-energy sector assessments should also be described. • A summary should present main findings across energy and non-energy sectors. • In addition to presenting results, reports should describe assumptions made, methods adopted and sources of data used. • Reporting should follow international scientific practices for documentation and referencing of data sources. • Results can be shown in chart and table formats. Charts should be backed-up by numeric tables for clarity. • All charts and numeric data should be clearly labeled with units unambiguously specified. • Note where GHG results are expressed as Tons of Carbon equivalent (Tons Ce) or as Tons of CO2 equivalent. • Reports can use any unit, but a table of unit conversion factors should be included to enable proper interpretation of results. • Fuel consumption and production should preferably be reported in standard energy units (e.g., GJ, GWhr, TOE). Where physical units are used (mass, volume) the fuel’s energy content and density should also be reported. • If possible, discuss the uncertainties associated with findings.

6. Modeling Methodologies • Reporting should describe: • what modeling methodology was adapted and why, • NB: important to distinguish between the software used and the model built within the software. • how the structure of the national energy system was reflected in the model, and • what disaggregation structure was used and why.

7. Scenario Definitions Reporting should describe: • the scenarios that were examined. • any sensitivity analyses that were conducted • how the baseline scenario was defined (what changes take place affecting GHG emissions even in the absence of GHG mitigation policies) • If an optimization model is used to study mitigation options, describe how the baseline scenario was constructed (to what degree was the baseline exogenous)? • How were mitigation scenarios framed (e.g. GHG constrained, technology focused or examining all measures up to some specified cost level).

8. Scenario Assumptions and Data • Reporting should describe: • Macroeconomic and demographic variables (population, GDP, urbanization, etc.) • Fuel price assumptions. • Discount rates: If different rates used in each sector (e.g. to reflect market barriers), describe how these values were established. • Activity levels and Energy Intensities • Describe base year and future development of activity levels in the model. • Include major assumptions in each sector.

9. Screening • Discuss and illustrate the process used for screening technology options. • Show any screening matrix used.

10. Emissions Calculations • Present the main emissions factors used in the assessment. • What assumptions were used about global warming potential? • If non-GHG gases were examined, how were they dealt with?

11. Suggested Emissions Results • GHG Emission for the baseline and mitigation scenarios. • GHG emissions by sector, by fuel and by gas in each scenario. • If GHGs other than CO2 are considered, present results as CO2 equivalents. Sample charts from LEAP

12. “Jaws” Charts • “Jaws” charts help illustrate the GHG savings from the various measures that make-up an overall mitigation scenario. • The top line of the chart shows baseline emissions. • Each lower line shows the savings resulting from adding another measure. Plotted over time, this reveals a set of open “jaws”. • The combined mitigation scenario is the lowest line. Sample chart from LEAP

13. Suggested Energy Results • Present in sufficient detail to document the assessment. • Primary and final energy consumption by fuel, by sector/subsector. Present results in sufficient detail • Final energy intensity (e.g. energy per capita or per unit of GDP). • Note how primary energy is calculated. • Major transformation results (e.g. for electric generation, transmission and distribution and oil refining), such as load factor evolution, capacity expansion, electric generation, efficiency and feedstock consumption. • Show results on imports and exports of major fuels where appropriate. • Describe differences between scenarios. Sample charts from LEAP

14. Energy Balance Sample tables and charts from LEAP • In addition to showing aspects of an energy system, it may be useful to show energy balances summarizing the whole energy system in the base year and one or more future years of each scenario.

15. Suggested Cost Results • Presentation of costs will depend on assessment methodology. • Bottom-up methods will only yield technical costs, while top-down and hybrid models will also show the costs of mitigation in terms of lost GDP. • Cost results should be shown discounted and from an overall societal perspective. Discount rates should be clearly described. • In general most cost results will be incremental: that is the difference between the mitigation and baseline scenarios. • Costs may be shown by component (capital costs, operating & maintenance, indigenous fuel costs, import cost, export benefits). Costs may also include the externality costs associated with non-GHG pollution. • If possible, include estimates of the administration and start-up costs of efficiency and other programs. • If possible, describe foreign exchange implications of the mitigation scenario. • Other useful cost indicators include the incremental Net Present Value (NPV) of the mitigation scenario, and the average cost of saved carbon. Sample chart from LEAP

16. Cost Curves • In addition to presenting the average cost of saved GHGs, it is useful to present a cost curve that shows the costs of each marginal emissions reduction plotted against the amount of GHGs saved. • Note that both costs and quantity can be affected by assumptions about the order of implementation. • Cost curve charts can easily be produced in spreadsheets. • See earlier slides on screening.

17. Other Environmental Impacts • If included in the study, show results for emissions of other non-GHG pollutants (e.g. SOx, NOx particulates, etc.). • Co-benefits exist if the mitigation scenario leads to reductions in these pollutants. • If using externality values for these pollutants, include the externality costs in your cost reports. • Discuss other hard to quantify impacts such as effects on water, soil and land-use. Sample chart from LEAP

18. Other Aspects of Reporting • Discuss the results of any macroeconomic assessment, which examines the impact of the mitigation scenarios on the wider economy. • Discuss how the mitigation scenarios are consistent with national development goals. • Discuss any barriers to implementing the envisaged mitigation options and the types of policies (national and international) that could help implement the identified mitigation options. • Identify capacity-building needs for the identification, evaluation and implementation of mitigation policies and measures. • Identify long-term needs for education and building public awareness on climate change issues.

19. Preparation of 2nd, 3rd or 4th National Communications • 2nd or subsequent National Communications should build upon the efforts and experiences of Initial National Communications (INCs). • A comprehensive stocktaking exercise should identify gaps and areas for further study. • For example, stocktaking can help with: • Gaps: what studies/assessments are needed to improve information or fill gaps in knowledge? • Uncertainties: how can the reliability of information be increased? • New areas of work: what areas were not included in the INC? • Priorities: helps to focus on priority areas for next NC.

20. Preparation of Project Proposals Article 12.4 of the UNFCCC states that: • Developing country Parties may, on a voluntary basis, propose projects for financing, including specific technologies, materials, equipment, techniques or practices that would be needed to implement such projects, along with, if possible, an estimate of all incremental costs, of the reductions of emissions and increments of removals of greenhouse gases, as well as an estimate of the consequent benefits. • Project proposals can be presented as part of national communications.

21. Draft Template for Reporting Project Proposals in NA1 National Communications Source: CGE of the UNFCCC