American Government and Politics Today

1. American Government and Politics Today Chapter 6 - Public Opinion Public opinion plays a critical role in our political system � just as it does in any representative democracy. What are the various ways in which people in this country express their opinion on issues publicly: Voting Letters to the editor Letters to politicians Marches and protests Responding to polls Attending town hall meetings Public opinion can even bring down politicians LBJ � reaction to escalation of Vietnam War Richard Nixon � reaction to Watergate In this lecture we are going define public opinion, examine how public opinion is measures, and look at some of the things that influence public opinion Public opinion plays a critical role in our political system � just as it does in any representative democracy. What are the various ways in which people in this country express their opinion on issues publicly: Voting Letters to the editor Letters to politicians Marches and protests Responding to polls Attending town hall meetings Public opinion can even bring down politicians LBJ � reaction to escalation of Vietnam War Richard Nixon � reaction to Watergate In this lecture we are going define public opinion, examine how public opinion is measures, and look at some of the things that influence public opinion

2. Defining Public Opinion Public opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of adults. Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly. When there is general public agreement on an issue, there is said to be a consensus. When opinions are sharply divided, there is divisive opinion. In simpler terms this means that someone has taken the time to measure the public�s opinion on a certain topic The measuring of opinion most often occurs with polls but as we discussed earlier public opinion can be measured in a variety of ways including the results of an election, and participation in demonstrations The transition from private to public opinion really occurs when an individual takes some action to publicly express their views on a public subject This expression of one�s view can either be proactive � getting involved in a political issues OR reactive � responding to polling questions Public opinion takes three different forms: Consensus � general agreement on a public issue Divisive opinion � the public is sharply divided on a public issue Non-opinion � public opinion is generally uncertain about a particular issue i.e. close to a majority of the voters have no opinion In simpler terms this means that someone has taken the time to measure the public�s opinion on a certain topic The measuring of opinion most often occurs with polls but as we discussed earlier public opinion can be measured in a variety of ways including the results of an election, and participation in demonstrations The transition from private to public opinion really occurs when an individual takes some action to publicly express their views on a public subject This expression of one�s view can either be proactive � getting involved in a political issues OR reactive � responding to polling questions Public opinion takes three different forms: Consensus � general agreement on a public issue Divisive opinion � the public is sharply divided on a public issue Non-opinion � public opinion is generally uncertain about a particular issue i.e. close to a majority of the voters have no opinion

3. Defining Public Opinion "those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed. �V. O. Key, Jr. Political Input and Political Output Public opinion can be an input into the policy process. Since officeholders try to manipulate it by making favorable policies, public opinion also can be seen as an output of the process. Examples: In 1998, when Bill Clinton denied he had "sexual relations" with Monica Lewinsky, his approval ratings remained high. Public opinion saved him in the impeachment trial: A Gallup Poll reported that 64 percent of the public favored a vote against conviction. In 2001, after the September 11 terrorist attacks, George W. Bush's approval rating hit 90 percent. Two years later, Bush's approval rating fell to 52 percent because of soldiers being killed in Iraq and the economy that was slow to recover. With the capture of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Bush's ratings spiked to 63 percent, but dropped again to 41 percent when causalities in Iraq rose. Public opinion can be an input into the policy process. Since officeholders try to manipulate it by making favorable policies, public opinion also can be seen as an output of the process. Examples: In 1998, when Bill Clinton denied he had "sexual relations" with Monica Lewinsky, his approval ratings remained high. Public opinion saved him in the impeachment trial: A Gallup Poll reported that 64 percent of the public favored a vote against conviction. In 2001, after the September 11 terrorist attacks, George W. Bush's approval rating hit 90 percent. Two years later, Bush's approval rating fell to 52 percent because of soldiers being killed in Iraq and the economy that was slow to recover. With the capture of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Bush's ratings spiked to 63 percent, but dropped again to 41 percent when causalities in Iraq rose.

4. Consensus vs. Divisive Opinion Generally, there is either a national consensus on an issue or a divisive opinion on an issues Issues where the public has no opinion are pretty rare � example Membership in WTO Here are 2 good examples demonstrating the difference between a consensus of public opinion and a divisive public opinionGenerally, there is either a national consensus on an issue or a divisive opinion on an issues Issues where the public has no opinion are pretty rare � example Membership in WTO Here are 2 good examples demonstrating the difference between a consensus of public opinion and a divisive public opinion

5. Political Socialization The process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes Public opinion is the summation of all individual opinions. In order to understand how public opinion is formed, it is critical to understand how individuals form their opinions The interactions people have with others has a major impact on the formation of individual opinions � including political perspectives Political Socialization Models of Political Socialization. Political socialization is the process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes. The interactions an individual has with others have a major impact on the formation of individual opinion. Public opinion is the summation of all individual opinions. In order to understand how public opinion is formed, it is critical to understand how individuals form their opinions The interactions people have with others has a major impact on the formation of individual opinions � including political perspectives Political Socialization Models of Political Socialization. Political socialization is the process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes. The interactions an individual has with others have a major impact on the formation of individual opinion.

6. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events Sources of Political Socialization include: The Family and the Social Environment. The importance of the family is paramount in the development of individual opinion. Political attitudes begin to develop in children and the major influence on these early values is the family. The family plays a significant role. Robert Lane says the family "incubates" opinions during the crucial development period between ages nine and thirteen. Children learn about politics through television and other means. Sixty-three percent of fourth-graders identified with a political party. Party loyalty is passed on from one generation to another. Sources of Political Socialization include: The Family and the Social Environment. The importance of the family is paramount in the development of individual opinion. Political attitudes begin to develop in children and the major influence on these early values is the family. The family plays a significant role. Robert Lane says the family "incubates" opinions during the crucial development period between ages nine and thirteen. Children learn about politics through television and other means. Sixty-three percent of fourth-graders identified with a political party. Party loyalty is passed on from one generation to another.

7. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events Education as a Source of Political Socialization. Educational influence on political opinions is also important. Education introduces individuals to ideas outside of the home and outside of the local community. These new ideas may influence the individual to accept opinions that are different from those of the parents. A study about Bennington College students in the 1930s found that those whose parents were affluent and conservative still came out of the liberal college environment more liberal than their parents. Jennings and Niemi found that among high school seniors, the similarity between parents and high-schoolers was modest. In elementary school, children are indoctrinated with stories of national heroes, and learn to salute the flag and sing patriotic songs. In junior high and high school, students are required to take civics courses. Colleges continue the political socialization of students. Involvement in antiwar activity was common in the 1960s on college campuses.Education as a Source of Political Socialization. Educational influence on political opinions is also important. Education introduces individuals to ideas outside of the home and outside of the local community. These new ideas may influence the individual to accept opinions that are different from those of the parents. A study about Bennington College students in the 1930s found that those whose parents were affluent and conservative still came out of the liberal college environment more liberal than their parents. Jennings and Niemi found that among high school seniors, the similarity between parents and high-schoolers was modest. In elementary school, children are indoctrinated with stories of national heroes, and learn to salute the flag and sing patriotic songs. In junior high and high school, students are required to take civics courses. Colleges continue the political socialization of students. Involvement in antiwar activity was common in the 1960s on college campuses.

8. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events Peers and Peer Group Influence These also have an impact on opinion formation. As people interact with others in school, or at work, or in social activities, various values come into play. These values can influence how opinions are formed. On occasion, group influence may even prevent the expression of opinion. Various types of groups may influence people. Groups whose views serve as guidelines for individuals are known as reference groups Groups that people come into face-to-face contact with in everyday life are known as primary groups. Secondary groups are more remote, such as labor unions and religious groups.Peers and Peer Group Influence These also have an impact on opinion formation. As people interact with others in school, or at work, or in social activities, various values come into play. These values can influence how opinions are formed. On occasion, group influence may even prevent the expression of opinion. Various types of groups may influence people. Groups whose views serve as guidelines for individuals are known as reference groups Groups that people come into face-to-face contact with in everyday life are known as primary groups. Secondary groups are more remote, such as labor unions and religious groups.

9. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events Opinion Leaders� Influence. Leaders, both formal and informal, also tend to shape the opinions of the public. Formal leaders include political leaders like the president, governors, and members of Congress. Formal leaders make a conscious effort to shape the opinions of the public. Informal leaders may not necessarily attempt to shape the political opinions of the public, but they still exert an influence on opinion formation. Examples of informal leaders are teachers, religious leaders, and civic leaders. Opinion Leaders� Influence. Leaders, both formal and informal, also tend to shape the opinions of the public. Formal leaders include political leaders like the president, governors, and members of Congress. Formal leaders make a conscious effort to shape the opinions of the public. Informal leaders may not necessarily attempt to shape the political opinions of the public, but they still exert an influence on opinion formation. Examples of informal leaders are teachers, religious leaders, and civic leaders.

10. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events Differences in social class, occupation, and income do appear to influence people's opinions on public matters. One study indicates that people who identify with the working class are more likely to favor federal social-welfare programs than middle class people. Community leaders are more tolerant of nonconformists and atheists than are lower classes. People with incomes under $20,000 (70 percent in a Gallup poll) were more likely to support free distribution of condoms to students to prevent AIDS than were those making more than $50,000 (59 percent of the Gallup poll). Children brought up in lower-income homes were more likely to accept authority than children from upper-class homes. Differences in social class, occupation, and income do appear to influence people's opinions on public matters. One study indicates that people who identify with the working class are more likely to favor federal social-welfare programs than middle class people. Community leaders are more tolerant of nonconformists and atheists than are lower classes. People with incomes under $20,000 (70 percent in a Gallup poll) were more likely to support free distribution of condoms to students to prevent AIDS than were those making more than $50,000 (59 percent of the Gallup poll). Children brought up in lower-income homes were more likely to accept authority than children from upper-class homes.

11. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events The Impact of the Media. The media also plays a significant role in the political socialization. The media presents information on important political topics. How topics are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion formation. Television and print media, along with talk radio and online services, bring government and politics into people's homes. In 2004, Vermont Governor Howard Dean used the Internet to raise $41 million dollars for his presidential campaign. Dean's website was linked to his "blog", also called a web log, is a website open to Internet users to post comments online. Talk radio helped the Republicans capture control of the House in 1994. In 2004, voters were bombarded by political commercials, televised conventions, and candidates appearing on a variety of shows. The Impact of the Media. The media also plays a significant role in the political socialization. The media presents information on important political topics. How topics are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion formation. Television and print media, along with talk radio and online services, bring government and politics into people's homes. In 2004, Vermont Governor Howard Dean used the Internet to raise $41 million dollars for his presidential campaign. Dean's website was linked to his "blog", also called a web log, is a website open to Internet users to post comments online. Talk radio helped the Republicans capture control of the House in 1994. In 2004, voters were bombarded by political commercials, televised conventions, and candidates appearing on a variety of shows.

12. Sources of Political Socialization The Family and the Social Environment Education as a Source of Political Socialization Peers and Peer Group Influence Opinion Leaders� Influence Economic Status Media Presentation of Political Issues Political events The Influence of Political Events. Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation. An important example was the impact of the Great Depression on people who came of age in t hat period. We call such an impact a generational effect, or a cohort effect. While it is likely that the events of September 11, 2001 will play an important role in the political socialization of young Americans, it is still unclear what this impact will be. The Influence of Political Events. Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation. An important example was the impact of the Great Depression on people who came of age in t hat period. We call such an impact a generational effect, or a cohort effect. While it is likely that the events of September 11, 2001 will play an important role in the political socialization of young Americans, it is still unclear what this impact will be.

13. Other Sources of Socialization Religion Gender Ethnicity Party Identification Geography A voter's religious and ethnic backgrounds and their political leanings may affect party preference. In 2000, 52 percent of Catholics voted for Vice President Al Gore. Among Protestants, 46 percent voted for Republican George W. Bush. Among Protestants, 55 percent voted for Bush, and 42 percent for Gore. In another study, Jewish and black voters were more likely than others to support governmental social-welfare programs. Religion may affect public opinion on specific issues: Quakers favor disarmament, Jews may favor aid to Israel, and Catholics may oppose the use of federal funds for abortion. Evidence shows that party ties are becoming less important. The number of political independents has increased in recent years. How voters think about political issues and candidates is often linked to their party identification and their personal view of the candidate. Political scientists distinguish between candidate orientation, issue orientation, and party identification. A voter's religious and ethnic backgrounds and their political leanings may affect party preference. In 2000, 52 percent of Catholics voted for Vice President Al Gore. Among Protestants, 46 percent voted for Republican George W. Bush. Among Protestants, 55 percent voted for Bush, and 42 percent for Gore. In another study, Jewish and black voters were more likely than others to support governmental social-welfare programs. Religion may affect public opinion on specific issues: Quakers favor disarmament, Jews may favor aid to Israel, and Catholics may oppose the use of federal funds for abortion. Evidence shows that party ties are becoming less important. The number of political independents has increased in recent years. How voters think about political issues and candidates is often linked to their party identification and their personal view of the candidate. Political scientists distinguish between candidate orientation, issue orientation, and party identification.

15. Measuring Public Opinion The History of Opinion Polls 1800s: Straw Polls By the 1930s modern, relatively accurate polling techniques were developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and others. Sampling Techniques Representative Sampling The Principle of Randomness A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error. The use of opinion polling started in the 1800s when magazine attempted to spice up their political coverage with polling data The polling data was typically derived from straw polls (face-to-face opinion surveying) of mail surveys of their readership opinions The downfall of this effort really focused on the representative ness of the polling activities The downfall of these magazine polls really occurred when Literary Digest predicted that Alfred Landon would gain the Democratic nomination over FDR in the 1936. While the data was accurate, the survey focused on magazine subscribers who were more affluent than the typical voter during the depression era Several newcomers to the polling field actually predicted a landslide victory for FDR and their prediction and polling techniques revolutionized the polling industry George Gallup and Elmo Roper utilized small, representative samples of the American electorate to gauge how the election would turn out. This technique focused on polling small number of voters (usually less than 1000) and using interviews to determine likely voting patterns These techniques demonstrated the early pollsters ability to accurately predict the likely actions of the electorate utilizing these small voter samples Today pollsters typically rely on the use of randomness to insure that their poll provides representative sample of the American electorate Generally, pollsters today will conduct a random polling of 1500 people on certain topics which provide the pollsters with a margin of error of + or � 3% for their results � which generally provides for highly accurate predictions The use of opinion polling started in the 1800s when magazine attempted to spice up their political coverage with polling data The polling data was typically derived from straw polls (face-to-face opinion surveying) of mail surveys of their readership opinions The downfall of this effort really focused on the representative ness of the polling activities The downfall of these magazine polls really occurred when Literary Digest predicted that Alfred Landon would gain the Democratic nomination over FDR in the 1936. While the data was accurate, the survey focused on magazine subscribers who were more affluent than the typical voter during the depression era Several newcomers to the polling field actually predicted a landslide victory for FDR and their prediction and polling techniques revolutionized the polling industry George Gallup and Elmo Roper utilized small, representative samples of the American electorate to gauge how the election would turn out. This technique focused on polling small number of voters (usually less than 1000) and using interviews to determine likely voting patterns These techniques demonstrated the early pollsters ability to accurately predict the likely actions of the electorate utilizing these small voter samples Today pollsters typically rely on the use of randomness to insure that their poll provides representative sample of the American electorate Generally, pollsters today will conduct a random polling of 1500 people on certain topics which provide the pollsters with a margin of error of + or � 3% for their results � which generally provides for highly accurate predictions

16. Problems with Polls While polling can be fairly accurate there are limits on that accuracy A large problem associated with polls are sampling errors � especially where the sample size is too small to provide accurate results � and pollsters are unable to compensate for those deficiencies Yes/No questions are also a problem in that opionions are typically more grey than a Yes or No and people will often try to appease pollsters with the answer they believe that pollsters are looking for Push Polls are also a problem � these are really pseudo polls where campaigns attempt to spread falsehoods about their opponents through the use of polls. The goal wit these polls are more focused on spreading bad info about the opponent rather than obtaining useful public opinion Finally, the are exit polls which attempt to poll voters immediately after thei cast their ballots on election. There are a number of problems with these polls Impact on the West Inaccuracies � 2000 & 2004 Presidential electionWhile polling can be fairly accurate there are limits on that accuracy A large problem associated with polls are sampling errors � especially where the sample size is too small to provide accurate results � and pollsters are unable to compensate for those deficiencies Yes/No questions are also a problem in that opionions are typically more grey than a Yes or No and people will often try to appease pollsters with the answer they believe that pollsters are looking for Push Polls are also a problem � these are really pseudo polls where campaigns attempt to spread falsehoods about their opponents through the use of polls. The goal wit these polls are more focused on spreading bad info about the opponent rather than obtaining useful public opinion Finally, the are exit polls which attempt to poll voters immediately after thei cast their ballots on election. There are a number of problems with these polls Impact on the West Inaccuracies � 2000 & 2004 Presidential election

17. Technology and Opinion Polls The Advent of Telephone Polling Far easier and less expensive than door-to-door polling, and has become standard. Too many entities are conducting �polls� and �market research.� Nonresponse Rates Have Skyrocketed Internet Polling Many voters are still not online There are many unscientific straw polls on the Internet In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling could escalate like those of telephone polls. The invention of the telephone made polling significant easier and less expensive However, as polling has become more pervasive in this country, the public�s willingness to respond to polling surveys has decreased significantly Nonresponse rates � especially with the advent of caller screening technologies � have increased to 80% Pollsters are now turning to the Internet as another source of polling data however there are a number of problems with this approach: Self selection Voter access to the internet Unscientific nature of the polls Likelihood of nonresponse rates increasing on internet polls as wellThe invention of the telephone made polling significant easier and less expensive However, as polling has become more pervasive in this country, the public�s willingness to respond to polling surveys has decreased significantly Nonresponse rates � especially with the advent of caller screening technologies � have increased to 80% Pollsters are now turning to the Internet as another source of polling data however there are a number of problems with this approach: Self selection Voter access to the internet Unscientific nature of the polls Likelihood of nonresponse rates increasing on internet polls as well

18. Gallup Poll Accuracy This chart provides a sense of how accurate the Gallup poll has been since 1936This chart provides a sense of how accurate the Gallup poll has been since 1936

19. Political Preferences and Voting Behavior The candidates and political parties individuals decide to support are influenced in part by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors. Demographic Influences Education Economic Status Religious Influence: Denomination Religious Influence: Commitment Race and Ethnicity Gender Geography Marital Status The candidates and political parties individuals decide to support are influenced in part by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors. Demographic Influences. Demographic traits exert a major influence over the development of one�s opinion. Education. For years, higher education levels appeared to correlate with voting for Republican candidates. Since 1992, however, voters with higher levels of education have been voting increasingly Democratic, so that in the 2000 election, these voters were nearly evenly divided between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The reason seems to be that professionals (such as lawyers, physicians, professors, etc.) are trending Democratic. Therefore, persons with postgraduate degrees (necessary to many professionals) now often vote Democratic. Businesspeople have remained strongly Republican, however. Businesspeople are less likely to have postgraduate degrees, which is why the population with BAs only continues to appear to favor the Republicans. The Influence of Economic Status. Economic status and occupation appear to influence political views. On issues of economic policy, individuals who have less income tend to favor liberal policies, while individuals of the upper middle class favor conservative policies. On cultural issues the reverse tends to be true. Those with less income are more conservative and those with higher incomes are more liberal. Economic Status and Voting Behavior. The Democratic Party also tends to receive support from people employed as manual laborers and from union workers. Religious Influence: Denomination. Religious influence appears to have a significant impact on the development of political opinions. For example, the Jewish community is highly likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Irreligious voters tend to be liberal on cultural issues, but to have mixed stands on economic ones. A century ago, Catholics were often Democrats and Protestants Republican, but little remains of that tradition. Religious Influence: Commitment. In 2000, trends showed that the level of devoutness (rather than denomination) correlated with voting. Those who attend church regularly are more likely to vote Republican, no matter what the denomination. This tendency does not apply to African Americans, however, who demonstrate both high levels of religious commitment and generally liberal politics. The Influence of Race and Ethnicity. In general, members of minority groups favor the Democrats. African Americans do so by overwhelming margins. Hispanics are voting Democratic by about two to one, though the Cuban American vote is strongly Republican. Asian Americans tend to support the Democrats but often by narrow margins. American Muslims of Middle Eastern decent gave George Bush majority support in 2000 based on shared cultural conservatism, but went heavily for John Kerry in 2004 on the basis of civil liberties concerns. The Gender Gap. Key term: the gender gap, or The difference between the percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men who vote for the candidate. Since 1980 women have tended to give somewhat more support to Democratic candidates for president and men have given somewhat more support to the Republicans. Women have been more supportive of social spending and extending civil rights (the value of equality). They have also been more concerned than men about security in the wake of 9/11, however. Republicans have benefited from this and the gender gap in the 2004 election proved to be quite modest. Reasons for the Gender Gap. Some researchers have argued that a decline in marriage rates and an increase in the number of divorces has depressed the income of many women, who tend to be helped economically by marriage. And indeed, single women appear to be unusually Democratic. Other researchers, however, note that the gender gap rises with education and that it persists among well-educated married women. Geographic Region. Presidentially, Democrats tend to get support from the Northeast and the West Coast. Republicans do well in the South, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. The Midwest tends to split (and sometimes decides elections). Even more importantly, cities are typically Democratic while the countryside in most places is Republican.The candidates and political parties individuals decide to support are influenced in part by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors. Demographic Influences. Demographic traits exert a major influence over the development of one�s opinion. Education. For years, higher education levels appeared to correlate with voting for Republican candidates. Since 1992, however, voters with higher levels of education have been voting increasingly Democratic, so that in the 2000 election, these voters were nearly evenly divided between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The reason seems to be that professionals (such as lawyers, physicians, professors, etc.) are trending Democratic. Therefore, persons with postgraduate degrees (necessary to many professionals) now often vote Democratic. Businesspeople have remained strongly Republican, however. Businesspeople are less likely to have postgraduate degrees, which is why the population with BAs only continues to appear to favor the Republicans. The Influence of Economic Status. Economic status and occupation appear to influence political views. On issues of economic policy, individuals who have less income tend to favor liberal policies, while individuals of the upper middle class favor conservative policies. On cultural issues the reverse tends to be true. Those with less income are more conservative and those with higher incomes are more liberal. Economic Status and Voting Behavior. The Democratic Party also tends to receive support from people employed as manual laborers and from union workers. Religious Influence: Denomination. Religious influence appears to have a significant impact on the development of political opinions. For example, the Jewish community is highly likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Irreligious voters tend to be liberal on cultural issues, but to have mixed stands on economic ones. A century ago, Catholics were often Democrats and Protestants Republican, but little remains of that tradition. Religious Influence: Commitment. In 2000, trends showed that the level of devoutness (rather than denomination) correlated with voting. Those who attend church regularly are more likely to vote Republican, no matter what the denomination. This tendency does not apply to African Americans, however, who demonstrate both high levels of religious commitment and generally liberal politics. The Influence of Race and Ethnicity. In general, members of minority groups favor the Democrats. African Americans do so by overwhelming margins. Hispanics are voting Democratic by about two to one, though the Cuban American vote is strongly Republican. Asian Americans tend to support the Democrats but often by narrow margins. American Muslims of Middle Eastern decent gave George Bush majority support in 2000 based on shared cultural conservatism, but went heavily for John Kerry in 2004 on the basis of civil liberties concerns. The Gender Gap. Key term: the gender gap, or The difference between the percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men who vote for the candidate. Since 1980 women have tended to give somewhat more support to Democratic candidates for president and men have given somewhat more support to the Republicans. Women have been more supportive of social spending and extending civil rights (the value of equality). They have also been more concerned than men about security in the wake of 9/11, however. Republicans have benefited from this and the gender gap in the 2004 election proved to be quite modest. Reasons for the Gender Gap. Some researchers have argued that a decline in marriage rates and an increase in the number of divorces has depressed the income of many women, who tend to be helped economically by marriage. And indeed, single women appear to be unusually Democratic. Other researchers, however, note that the gender gap rises with education and that it persists among well-educated married women. Geographic Region. Presidentially, Democrats tend to get support from the Northeast and the West Coast. Republicans do well in the South, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. The Midwest tends to split (and sometimes decides elections). Even more importantly, cities are typically Democratic while the countryside in most places is Republican.

20. Public Opinion and the Political Process Political Culture and Popular Opinion. Political Culture, Support for Our Political System, and Political Trust The overarching framework that holds the disparity of public opinions together is a shared political culture While as individuals we may have very different public opinions on fairly controversial issues � all Americans generally value some core ideas about our nation and government Political Culture and Popular Opinion. Political culture can be described as a set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and government. Certain shared beliefs about important values are considered the core of American political culture. They bind the nation together despite its highly diverse population. These values include: liberty, equality, and property; support for religion; and community service and personal achievement. Political Culture and Support for Our Political System. General popular belief that the presidential election of 2000 would be settled fairly is an example of how a general sense of support for our political system allows the nation to weather a crisis. Political Trust. General levels of trust in government have gone up and down. Levels were high right after 9/11 but were much lower in the wake of the Vietnam War and t he Watergate scandal. The overarching framework that holds the disparity of public opinions together is a shared political culture While as individuals we may have very different public opinions on fairly controversial issues � all Americans generally value some core ideas about our nation and government Political Culture and Popular Opinion. Political culture can be described as a set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and government. Certain shared beliefs about important values are considered the core of American political culture. They bind the nation together despite its highly diverse population. These values include: liberty, equality, and property; support for religion; and community service and personal achievement. Political Culture and Support for Our Political System. General popular belief that the presidential election of 2000 would be settled fairly is an example of how a general sense of support for our political system allows the nation to weather a crisis. Political Trust. General levels of trust in government have gone up and down. Levels were high right after 9/11 but were much lower in the wake of the Vietnam War and t he Watergate scandal.

21. Trends in Political Trust Public Opinion about Government. It is clear that there is considerable ambivalence on the part of the public regarding government and other national institutions. Recent data suggests that trust in government peaked after 9/11 but fell back thereafter. Over the years, the military and churches have been the institutions receiving the highest levels of public confidence. After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs. Confidence in churches was hurt in 2002 by a series of sexual abuse scandals. Banks and the Supreme Court also score highly, while the media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more poorly. Currently, the public rates the war in Iraq and the economy as the nation�s greatest problems.Public Opinion about Government. It is clear that there is considerable ambivalence on the part of the public regarding government and other national institutions. Recent data suggests that trust in government peaked after 9/11 but fell back thereafter. Over the years, the military and churches have been the institutions receiving the highest levels of public confidence. After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs. Confidence in churches was hurt in 2002 by a series of sexual abuse scandals. Banks and the Supreme Court also score highly, while the media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more poorly. Currently, the public rates the war in Iraq and the economy as the nation�s greatest problems.

22. Public Opinion and Policymaking The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this. Setting Limits on Government Action Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies. Setting policy Providing politicians with the support to carry an initiative forward Public Opinion and Policymaking. What role should public opinion play in the political process? Should political leaders rely on public opinion polls to make public policy? The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this. Setting Limits on Government Action. Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies. The Limits of Polling. There are differences of opinion between the public and policymakers on this issue. Part of the difference stems from one of the flaws of polling: poll questions largely ignore the context within which most policy decisions take place. That is, people are likely to express opinions on many kinds of policies without being required to consider the costs. Setting Policy Through Support Public support can often be used as a springboard for setting national policy Strong public support for a policy initiative can serve as a strong motivator for political action Key Message to remember the people "can elect the government. They can remove it. They can approve or disapprove of its performance. But they cannot administer the government. . . . A mass cannot govern.� Walter Lippmann "nobody knows enough to run the government. [Our leaders] are only a little less ignorant than the rest of us." E. E. Schattschneider Public Opinion and Policymaking. What role should public opinion play in the political process? Should political leaders rely on public opinion polls to make public policy? The general public believes the leadership should pay attention to popular opinion. Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this. Setting Limits on Government Action. Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians from embracing highly unpopular policies. The Limits of Polling. There are differences of opinion between the public and policymakers on this issue. Part of the difference stems from one of the flaws of polling: poll questions largely ignore the context within which most policy decisions take place. That is, people are likely to express opinions on many kinds of policies without being required to consider the costs. Setting Policy Through Support Public support can often be used as a springboard for setting national policy Strong public support for a policy initiative can serve as a strong motivator for political action Key Message to remember the people "can elect the government. They can remove it. They can approve or disapprove of its performance. But they cannot administer the government. . . . A mass cannot govern.� Walter Lippmann "nobody knows enough to run the government. [Our leaders] are only a little less ignorant than the rest of us." E. E. Schattschneider

23. Test Strategy Review Review your reading Reviewing your notes Review the lectures Review terms Approach test in an organized manner

24. Simulation Preparation Identify someone in group to run for Speaker Review the issues to be addressed. Develop proposals or positions on each based on the nature of your province Be prepared to debate the issues.

25. Agenda for Simulation Nominations for Speaker of convention Election of Convention Speaker Appointment of Recording Secretary Issue 1: How many chamber will be used to comprise the national assembly? Issue 2: How will delegates to the national assembly be apportioned? Issue 3: How many representatives will there be in the national assembly? Issue 4: How long will representatives be elected to office? Will these terms run concurrently or staggered? Debriefing and Critique

26. QUESTIONS?