NCEP: “where America’s climate and weather services begin”

1. NCEP Operational Prediction:Current status and future plansStephen J. LordDirectorNCEP Environmental Modeling Center NCEP: “where America’s climate and weather services begin”

2. Overview • Mission comparison withInternational Centers • Current model suite • Performance comparison • Global NWP • Hurricanes • S/I Climate • Precipitation (US) • Improved strategy for forecast system enhancements • Future model suite • Summary

3. NCEP Mission Requirements & Forecast Suite Elements

4. 2005 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast GFDL Hurricane G D A S G E N S WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM SREF Dispersion GFS Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW E D A S CFS Eta Air Quality Noah Land Surface Model RUC L D A S

5. RUC NAM Anl GFS Anl Waves Hur SREF NAM Fcst GFS Fcst GENS

6. Performance Comparison Global NWP “Constant” gap for NH Gap widening for SH

7. Performance Comparison Hurricanes

8. Performance Comparison Seasonal Forecasts NCEP CFS wrt OIv2 1971-2000 climatology CA (Statistical) European

9. Performance Comparison Global Models ---ECMWF --- UKM ___NCEP North American run THREAT THREAT 24 Precipitation (24-72 h) 7/1/04-6/30/05 48 72 BIAS 1993 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005

10. Improved Strategy • Engage more partners from the US weather and climate community to: • Promote use of operational forecast systems by “non-operational” users • Adopt community model concept to: • Supply improved diversity of scientific solutions • Enhance links and partnerships between research and operational communities • Support “Test Beds” which provide • Technical support for codes and data • More efficient transition to operations path based on results • Influence resource decisions based on operational research needs

11. Improved Strategy (cont) • Examples • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Real time ocean modeling • Supported community code (Data Assimilation) • WRF

12. NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) • Multi-agency partnership (NOAA, NASA, DOD) • Mission • Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models • Current generation data • Prepare for next-generation (e.g. NPOESS, METOP, COSMIC) instruments • Supports applied research • Partners • University, Government and Commercial Labs

13. A1 New A1 current Examples of Instrument-Specific Development at the JCSDA • GPS Occultation (COSMIC) • AIRS • MODIS winds • Surface emissivity for microwave instruments • Advanced SST physical retrievals for IR & MW instruments

14. US GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM • Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins • NCEP Partners with • University of Miami/RSMAS • NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC • NOAA PMEL, AOML • Los Alamos National Laboratory • Others (international, commercial) • Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – HYCOM) • Funded FY 2003-2007 by NOPP Chesapeake Bay

15. HYCOM Deployment Schedule North Atlantic World Oceans North-East Pacific Hawaii FY 2006 2007 2008 Initiate interactions with NOS on bay and estuary model boundary conditions; Initiate wave-current interactions. Storm Surge Modeling Ecosystem Modeling Global atmosphere-ocean Coupling and Hurricane-Ocean Coupling

16. Improved Strategy (cont) • Data Assimilation Code • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis • Applied to global and regional (WRF) analyses • Community-based (currently with minimum support) • 46 users • NASA/GMAO has adopted code for their research and operations • Ingests full suite of conventional and remotely-sensed (satellite and radar) observations • Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) • Contains advanced treatment of background errors • Basis of advanced data assimilation techniques • High time and space density data • Simplified 4D-Var capability • Ready for ensemble information input

17. WRF Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation) • Mesoscale community model: in development since 1997 – supported through USWRP, NOAA, DOD, FAA, UCAR, NSF • Includes support for Boulder Development Testbed Center (DTC) and operational implementation at NCEP and DOD • Currently supports same real-time code run at DTC and NCEP NCAR ARW C M I NCEP NMM

18. WRF Implementation Schedule • HiResWindow (Both cores): Implemented operationally at NCEP on 6/28/05 (~5 km) • WRF SREF members: Operational FY05 (4th Qtr) • North American WRF: Operational in FY06 • WRF SREF: Fully operational in FY07 • Hurricane WRF: Operational in FY07* • Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07* • WRF Chem: Beyond 2008* * As resources allow

19. 2005 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast GFDL Hurricane G D A S G E N S WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM SREF Dispersion GFS Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW E D A S CFS Eta Air Quality Noah Land Surface Model RUC L D A S

20. 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast Hurricane WRF G G S I G E N S WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA? RSM? SREF Dispersion GFS Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW R G S I CFS WRF Chem WRF* Air Quality Noah Land Surface Model Rapid Refresh WRF L D A S *FY08

21. Summary • NCEP, DOD, research community making progress on community model development and application • JCSDA • HYCOM • WRF • Community codes • Need to build off this community effort and increased partnerships • Improve ongoing development and implementation process • Work toward a full Earth System Modeling Framework for global and regional applications • Ensure that the entire end-to-end effort is properly resourced

22. Backup

23. Earth System Modeling Framework • ESMF provides tools for turning model codes into componentswith standard interfaces and standard drivers • ESMF provides data structures and common utilities that components use • to organize codes • to improve performance portability • for common services such as data communications, regridding, time management and message logging

24. NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison Operating strategy

25. NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison Organizational Factors

26. NCEP, ECMWF, UKM Comparison Scientific Development & Community Relationships

27. Outreach (cont) • NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Global wx: GMAO • Radiative transfer: NOAA/NESDIS, AER, U. Wisc. • Ocean data assimilation: U Md • Land surface modeling & data assim: NASA/HSB, Princeton U, U Wash.

28. Outreach (cont) • WRF • Mesoscale wx (NAM, 2006): NOAA/FSL, NCAR, UOK, etc • WRF-ARW & WRF-NMM are “5 km” models in NCEP operations • WRF-ARW members in Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Fall ’05 • Hurricane (2007): URI, NOAA/AOML • Rapid refresh (2007): NOAA/FSL • Code convergence for mesoscale forecast systems • SREF model diversity can be managed with minimum cost • Climate Test Bed • S/I: GFDL, NASA/GMAO • Unified forecast system • GFS: NOAA/FSL, U. Wisc. – hybrid coordinate model • Gridpoint Spectral Interpolation (GSI) analysis

29. Resource Comparison • Ingredients for Improved Numerical Forecast Systems • Balance between • Observations • Data Assimilation & Model technology • Computing resources • Processor growth equal to Moore’s Law • On-line disk proportional to processor capability • Archive proportional to processor capability • System support proportional to • Number of computers • Number of users • Computing resources applied to • Operations • Integration and Testing upgrades

30. Computing ComparisonsInternational Operational Weather & Climate Forecast Centers2005-2006WMO Survey (Majewski, 2005)

31. Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP Operational Computing October 2004

32. EMC Mission In response to operational requirements: • Maintain the scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast systems • Adapt to format changes and other changing operational requirements • Adapt to new computing hardware • Monitor and ensure the integrity of operational observing systems • Enhance (Test & Improve) Numerical Forecasts Through Advanced • Data assimilation techniques • Model physics (parameterizations) • Numerical methods • Computational efficiency • Transitionand DevelopOperational Numerical Forecast Systems for: • Weather prediction (domestic, global, 1-15 days) • Ocean prediction (daily to annual, coastal to global) • Climate prediction (seasonal to inter-annual) Enhance: Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast systems via scientific upgrades, tuning, additional observations, in response to user requirements Transition and Develop: transform & integrate code, algorithms, techniques from research status to operational status on NCEP computers Maintain: Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes

33. FY05 EMC Budget Total: $17.5 M Funding Sources Kelly report (2000) recommendation: 75% ORF, 25% “soft” 2002 budget supplement and adjustment: $2.8 M

34. Human Resource Comparison Global & Mesoscale Dev Global Dev Only NCEP UKMET ECMWF NCEP Operations • UKMET twice NCEP for Global & Mesoscale development • ECMWF 80% more than NCEP for Global development • ECMWF Ops same as NCEP ops • ECMWF covers computational • efficiency and porting to new • architecture ECMWF NCEP

35. Science plan for catching up • Goal: to produce the highest forecast scores by 2010 • Synoptic scale forecasts • QPF • Hurricanes • Aviation • Marine & land transportation • Week 2 to S/I climate • Advanced data assimilation methods • Better use of time dimension • Improved background covariances • Flow dependence • Ensemble methods • New development (with JCSDA) • Clouds & precipitation • Snow, Ice & polar regions • Land & ocean surface • Adjoint of analysis system for improved tuning & understanding (with NASA)

36. Science plan for catching up (cont) • Improved diagnostic analysis • Increased case study analysis • Work on “bust” cases • Greater effort on total system tuning • Improved scientific development • Eddy simulation models* to advance PBL, stratus, stratocumulus parameterizations • Cloud resolving models* to advance cumulus and cloud fraction parameterizations • ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS initial states with GFS • Higher resolution • Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Ice coupling * Currently done by UKMET

37. Science plan for catching up (cont) • Enhanced ensemble systems • Data assimilation • Postprocessed, downscaled products • International ensemble system • Enhanced community collaborations & outreach • Outreach • Education on best use of products + • Regular Workshops+ • Full involvement in • International Model intercomparison projects • Field experiments+ • Vigorous Visiting Scientist Program • WRF, global (weather & S/I climate) systems • USWRP, NSF research support + Currently done by ECMWF

38. Science plan for catching up (cont) • Single forecast system • Applicable to global & mesoscale (nonhydrostatic) • Software engineering group • Design systems which are easier to maintain • Improved software efficiency (so scientists don’t have to do it)

39. Organizational & Political Factors • Organizational Factors

40. Organizational & Political Factors (cont) • Scientific Development & Community Relationships

41. ECMWF – NCEP(EMC,NCO, OD)comparison for global wx & climate * Clearly overestimated: NCEP OD, NCO + EMC (Global Wx & Climate)

42. Human Resource Comparison (cont) • UKMET three times more than NCEP for Satellite Data Assimilation

43. NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agency & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF/Model JHT Operations R&D Delivery Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria

44. NCEP’s (Modeling) Transition to Operations: Focus on EMC and NCO Effort EMC NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS 1 2 3 5 7 8 4 6 Operations R&D Delivery Test Beds Launch List – Model Implementation Process 5. Level II:- Preliminary Testing (DA/Higher Resolution) 4. Level I:- Preliminary Testing (Lower Resolution) 7. NCO Pre- Implementation Testing 6. EMC Pre- Implementation Testing (Packaging and Calibration) 3. Interface with Operational Codes 1. Identified for Selection 2. Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or Development 8. Implementation Delivery Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria

45. Transition Steps (Modeling) Identification for Selection 1 Code/Algorithm Assessment and/or Development 2 3 Interface with Operational Codes 4 Level I: Preliminary Testing (Lower Resolution) 5 Level II: Preliminary Testing (DA/Higher Resolution) EMC Pre-Implementation Testing (Packaging/Calibration) 6 NCO Pre-Implementation Testing 7 Implementation/Delivery 8

46. Anomaly correlation for 5-day forecasts of 500hPa geopotential height Improvement From latest GFS Implementation (P) Northern Hemisphere (20N-80N) O P E U O P E U Southern Hemisphere (20S-80S)

47. NOAA Planning & Resource Allocation • Example of new resources for expanded mission • Air Quality • Contractor personnel • Computing supplement • NWS HQ management • EMC management resources lacking • NOAA Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution System (PPBES) • Environmental Modeling Program (EMP) • Addresses resources vs. forecast requirements • Human • Computing • Observational

48. Additional Research Computing • Former NCEP operational computer • 1/3 current operational capability • Allocated to 3 major projects • Satellite data assimilation • Climate forecast development • Advanced modeling (WRF, global) • New NOAA “research” computer in procurement • October 2006 delivery • Replaces former NCEP operational computer

49. NCEP Global Model Strategy & ESMF • Concept of operations • Single system for global and regional models • Performance permitting • Migration to single model or • Multiple dynamics and physics options in single structure • Single verification, observations data base obeying WMO standards • Single analysis code • All components ESMF compatible • Enables multiple models and standard for coupling models • Decreases code maintenance and code reuse • Overall positive experience at Met Office & ECMWF

50. The Environmental Forecast Process Observations Data Assimilation Analysis Model Forecast Numerical Forecast System Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…)