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Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…. Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts. Why have commuters been neglected since 1945?. Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts. Measuring output. Passenger journeys Passenger miles. Counting output correctly.

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Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

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  1. Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways…or… Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

  2. Why have commuters been neglected since 1945? Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

  3. Measuring output • Passenger journeys • Passenger miles Counting output correctly

  4. Counting output correctly

  5. Measuring output • Passenger journeys • Passenger miles • Rather crude, and not quality adjusted Counting output correctly

  6. Counting output correctly Aspects of quality • Are the trains safe? • Are the trains fast? • Are the trains frequent? • Are the trains on time? • Can I get a seat? • Are the sandwiches any good?

  7. Fast v frequent • People want to get from origin to destination, “quickly” • “Quickly” means the time from when they want to leave until actual arrival • Train speed and frequency are therefore substitutes and need to be considered together Counting output correctly

  8. Methodology (1) • Computerise the railway timetable • Find out how speeds and frequency change over time • Take into account that trains at some times of day are more important than at others Counting output correctly

  9. Counting output correctly

  10. Which train to catch? • Preferred time of travel exogenous • Take the first train after the time you want to travel • Except do not take a train that will be overtaken by a later train mid-journey • No endogeneity of preferred time of travel as a result of train speeds Counting output correctly

  11. Allocating people to trains Counting output correctly

  12. Which journeys to include? • Representative selection? • Major journeys? Counting output correctly

  13. Which journeys matter? Counting output correctly

  14. Which journeys to include • Representative selection? • Major journeys? • Journeys of different types Counting output correctly

  15. 5 samples • Short commuter routes (Surbiton) • Long commuter routes (Cambridge) • Long distance routes (Leeds) • Non-London routes • Airport connections Counting output correctly

  16. Counting output correctly

  17. Counting output correctly

  18. Overall result • Since 1945, long distance trains have become faster • Shorter distance commuter trains got faster until the earlier 1970s, and have since slowed down to their 1950 levels again Counting output correctly

  19. Commuter line quantity • 375 million commuter journeys into Central London each year, 60m from Waterloo alone Counting output correctly

  20. Passengers per station Counting output correctly

  21. The value of time • DoT methodology: modal-specific wage values for in work time, standardised for other time • Rail work time £42/hour • Commuting time all modes £5.75 • Commuting rail time would be £8 • Might be higher into SW London?

  22. “Lost” value • Counterfactual: commuter trains get faster at the same rate as non-commuter trains since 1950 • eg Surbiton-Waterloo 14 mins inc waiting (51mph total, 71mph IV on current frequency) • Value @£8/hr: £440m (npv £6bn)

  23. So why hasn’t it happened? • Politics? • Technical difficulties?

  24. Commuter line politics • In commuter constituencies, lots of people commute: salience • Non-commuting home owners gain as house prices reflect service • Therefore you might expect government to improve these lines Counting output correctly

  25. Commuter line politics • Most London commuter constituencies vote Conservative • And some are politically marginal – Croydon, North Kent, South Essex Counting output correctly

  26. Commuter election results Counting output correctly

  27. Can commuter routes get faster? • Improve signalling to run more trains per hour (as in 1912) • Lighter trains accelerate more quickly • More doors to speed boarding • Tunnel mainline routes into the centre, (e.g. Waterloo – Bank – Liverpool St) – big time savings Counting output correctly

  28. Why choose HST instead? • Glamour? Announcing that Britain will enter the High Speed Era with the CTRL or the WCML may get better headlines than announcing 5 minutes off the time to East Croydon. Counting output correctly

  29. Evening Standard • “The Queen re-ignited the great British love affair with the railways last night as she opened the revitalised St.Pancras station.” • “History was made at the new St.Pancras International today when the first Eurostar train left for Brussels.” Counting output correctly

  30. Will it happen? • Eddington talked about building what people will use • Crossrail is in London (although does not seem designed to maximise output:cost ratio) Counting output correctly

  31. Questions and comments?

  32. The glamour of high speed trains – or why is my train to work so slow?

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