1 / 32

Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

Learn from Britain's railways neglect of commuters since 1945. The significance of counting output correctly and quality adjustments. Explore methodology, allocating people to trains, and the effects of train speed on commuter routes.

zoe-singleton
Download Presentation

Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways … or…

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Counting output in ways that matter: lessons from Britain’s Railways…or… Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

  2. Why have commuters been neglected since 1945? Dr Tim Leunig & Professor Nick Crafts

  3. Measuring output • Passenger journeys • Passenger miles Counting output correctly

  4. Counting output correctly

  5. Measuring output • Passenger journeys • Passenger miles • Rather crude, and not quality adjusted Counting output correctly

  6. Counting output correctly Aspects of quality • Are the trains safe? • Are the trains fast? • Are the trains frequent? • Are the trains on time? • Can I get a seat? • Are the sandwiches any good?

  7. Fast v frequent • People want to get from origin to destination, “quickly” • “Quickly” means the time from when they want to leave until actual arrival • Train speed and frequency are therefore substitutes and need to be considered together Counting output correctly

  8. Methodology (1) • Computerise the railway timetable • Find out how speeds and frequency change over time • Take into account that trains at some times of day are more important than at others Counting output correctly

  9. Counting output correctly

  10. Which train to catch? • Preferred time of travel exogenous • Take the first train after the time you want to travel • Except do not take a train that will be overtaken by a later train mid-journey • No endogeneity of preferred time of travel as a result of train speeds Counting output correctly

  11. Allocating people to trains Counting output correctly

  12. Which journeys to include? • Representative selection? • Major journeys? Counting output correctly

  13. Which journeys matter? Counting output correctly

  14. Which journeys to include • Representative selection? • Major journeys? • Journeys of different types Counting output correctly

  15. 5 samples • Short commuter routes (Surbiton) • Long commuter routes (Cambridge) • Long distance routes (Leeds) • Non-London routes • Airport connections Counting output correctly

  16. Counting output correctly

  17. Counting output correctly

  18. Overall result • Since 1945, long distance trains have become faster • Shorter distance commuter trains got faster until the earlier 1970s, and have since slowed down to their 1950 levels again Counting output correctly

  19. Commuter line quantity • 375 million commuter journeys into Central London each year, 60m from Waterloo alone Counting output correctly

  20. Passengers per station Counting output correctly

  21. The value of time • DoT methodology: modal-specific wage values for in work time, standardised for other time • Rail work time £42/hour • Commuting time all modes £5.75 • Commuting rail time would be £8 • Might be higher into SW London?

  22. “Lost” value • Counterfactual: commuter trains get faster at the same rate as non-commuter trains since 1950 • eg Surbiton-Waterloo 14 mins inc waiting (51mph total, 71mph IV on current frequency) • Value @£8/hr: £440m (npv £6bn)

  23. So why hasn’t it happened? • Politics? • Technical difficulties?

  24. Commuter line politics • In commuter constituencies, lots of people commute: salience • Non-commuting home owners gain as house prices reflect service • Therefore you might expect government to improve these lines Counting output correctly

  25. Commuter line politics • Most London commuter constituencies vote Conservative • And some are politically marginal – Croydon, North Kent, South Essex Counting output correctly

  26. Commuter election results Counting output correctly

  27. Can commuter routes get faster? • Improve signalling to run more trains per hour (as in 1912) • Lighter trains accelerate more quickly • More doors to speed boarding • Tunnel mainline routes into the centre, (e.g. Waterloo – Bank – Liverpool St) – big time savings Counting output correctly

  28. Why choose HST instead? • Glamour? Announcing that Britain will enter the High Speed Era with the CTRL or the WCML may get better headlines than announcing 5 minutes off the time to East Croydon. Counting output correctly

  29. Evening Standard • “The Queen re-ignited the great British love affair with the railways last night as she opened the revitalised St.Pancras station.” • “History was made at the new St.Pancras International today when the first Eurostar train left for Brussels.” Counting output correctly

  30. Will it happen? • Eddington talked about building what people will use • Crossrail is in London (although does not seem designed to maximise output:cost ratio) Counting output correctly

  31. Questions and comments?

  32. The glamour of high speed trains – or why is my train to work so slow?

More Related