Census data, the COAG data and spatial analysis Matthew James

1. Census data, the COAG data and spatial analysis Matthew James

2. Outline • The COAG targets and Census data • Place-based analysis and the Census • Analysis that is only possible with the Census

3. Targets to Close the Gap To close the gap in life expectancy within a generation; To halve the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five within a decade; To ensure all Indigenous four-year olds in remote communities have access to early childhood education within five years; To halve the gap in reading, writing and numeracy achievements for Indigenous children within a decade; To halve the gap for Indigenous students in year 12 equivalent attainment by 2020; To halve the gap in employment outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians within a decade.

4. Measurement • Life expectancy is measured through both census and mortality data • The under 5 mortality target is measured with mortality data • The Early childhood access target will be measured by a new collection being developed by the ABS but Census data will be important for the denominator • The reading, writing and numeracy targets are measured with NAPLAN data

5. Measurement • The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the Census is a key source • The main source for the year 12 or equivalent target is the Census as the population group – 20-24 year olds is relatively small which means that survey data has high sampling error • The baseline for the employment target is the NATSISS but the Census is a key data source.

6. Performance Indicators and the NIRA • There are 27 indicators in the NIRA much more than the targets themselves. Some of these indicators are progress indicators such as smoking rates while others are proxies. • For example, while the life expectancy target can only be directly measured every 5 years – mortality data are available annually

8. The Census and the NIRA • Of the 27 indicators the census is the main source for 3 - Year 12 attainment target itself - The Proportion of Indigenous 18-24 year olds engaged in full-time employment, education or training at or above Certificate III - The proportion of 20-64 year olds with or working toward post-school qualifications in Cert III or above.

9. The Census and the NIRA • But estimates of the residential population are denominators for a total of 11 indicators. • The Census is clearly critical for monitoring progress against the COAG targets.

10. The Census and Small Area data • Much of the focus in Indigenous policy requires data to be split by remoteness area – options for this can be limited with survey data • Importance of local baseline studies - Fahcsia Baseline Community Profiles - Detailed baseline mapping reports for the 29 RSD communities

11. The Census and Small Area data • For remote Indigenous communities the Census is a key data source but at times the undercount can affect data quality. • Census a key source for local data on employment, educational attainment, the age structure and provides some useful information on mobility • The Census compliments other administrative data including hospitalisation data, school attendance data and NAPLAN data • Without the Census community profiles would be very limited

12. The Census is critical for time seriesanalysis • The Census is the only real source for long-term time series analysis as the surveys do not go back far enough. • For much analysis you need time series data. • Often trends are only evident over long periods • The term baseline can use to confusion

13. Urbanisation • The proportion of the Indigenous population in population of centres of 1,000 or more has changed massively in the last 40 years • In 1971 just over 44% of the Indigenous population lived in population centres of 1000, or more people • By 2006 this proportion stood at 76% Note these data should not be conflated with data on remoteness area

14. % of the Indigenous Population in Urban areas

15. Why has this happened? • Internal migration • An increasing propensity over time to identify as Indigenous • The so called ‘error of closure’ accounted for 50% of population growth between 1991 and 1996 and 31% between 1996 and 2001 much of this is concentrated in urban areas • For the period 2001 to 2006 the error of closure was small • You cannot understand Indigenous demography without understanding intermarriage patterns. • Births to non Indigenous mothers are important

16. Employment Rate, Age 15-64, 1971 to 2006

17. Indigenous Employment Rates, by Sex, 15-64, 1971 to 2006

18. Pattern more stark if CDEP Excluded Indigenous employment rate by sex

19. The Employment Gap is low at high education levels, 2006 Census DataEmployment Rate, 15-64

20. Proportion of Indigenous and Non Indigenous Males with Post-School Qualifications, 1971 to 2006, Age 20-64

21. Employment Rate, Age 20-64, Males who left School at 14 or Younger

22. Remoteness area • 75% of the Indigenous population is in non remote areas • But ‘gaps’ usually considerably wider in remote areas • Collectively inner and outer regional areas are more important than the major cities • People conflate remoteness with discrete communities

23. Indigenous employment rates, age 15-64 by remoteness area, with and without CDEP, 2006

24. Highest level of Educational Attainment Year 9 or belowby Remoteness Area, Indigenous adults (20-64), 2006

25. Indigenous male employment rates, 15-641981 and 2006, CDEP counted as employment

26. Indigenous male employment rates, 15-641981 and 2006, CDEP not counted as employment

27. Conclusion • Census a key source for the NIRA and the COAG targets • Census critical for place-based analysis • Census allows time series analysis back to 1971 • Census has some other advantages over surveys – for example the inclusion of people in non private dwellings • Surveys complement the Census – we need both