Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race

1. Nuclear Deterrence and the Superpower Arms Race War and Global Conflict in the Contemporary Era

2. The nuclear peace? • Massive nuclear arsenals: 70,000 nukes by late 1980s • End of civilisation w/ over one billion dead • No nuclear use since 1945

3. Key themes • Explaining the build-up • Civil-military differences • Nuclear strategy

4. Reaction to the bomb • Mixture of “awe and apprehension.” • Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000 • Press censorship of destruction • Prompt surrender of Japan

5. Hiroshima: clinical destruction

6. Hiroshima: clinical destruction

7. Hiroshima: the hidden suffering

8. Reaction to the bomb • Mixture of “awe and apprehension.” • Hiroshima and Nagasaki blown off the map killing up to 140,000 • Press censorship of destruction • Prompt surrender of Japan

9. Race from the start • US atomic bomb: 1945 • Soviet A-bomb: 1949 • US hydrogen bomb: 1952 • Soviet H-bomb: 1955

10. Mike test • 10 megaton = 500 Hiroshimas • Cloud: 30 x 27 miles • Crater: mile wide and 200 ft deep • End of “Duck and Cover”

11. Superpower nuclear arsenals • Massive size • Complexity • Overkill

12. Explaining the arms build-up • External: arms race • Internal: domestic politics

13. Arms racing • Explains ‘why’ but not ‘how’ • Tit-for-tat dynamics • Origins of Soviet programme • Failure of 1946 Baruch Plan • Limitations?

14. Domestic politics • Bureaucratic interests, election politics, and the MIC • Origins of the US build-up • Undermining alternatives • Windows of vulnerability

15. Civilian perspectives • Special weapons of last resort • Nuclear taboo: public opinion and personal conviction • Truman and AEC • Eisenhower and Korea • LBJ and Vietnam

16. Can war be left to the generals?

17. Mr. Atom Bomb

18. Military perspectives • WWII bombing campaigns & SAC • Emergency War Plan 1-49 • “smoking radiating ruin at the end of two hours.” • Circumventing civilian control

19. Nuclear nutters

20. Peace through strength

21. Golden age of nuclear strategy • MAD v nuclear war-fighting • Can nuclear war be fought? • How easy is deterrence? • Objective: denial or punishment? (Gray v Howard)

23. Cuban Missile Crisis

24. United Nations Security Council

25. CMC: Soviet motives • Deter US invasion • Redress strategic imbalance • Counter Turkey deployment

26. EXCOMM

27. CMC: US options • Naval quarantine • Air strike • Invasion

28. Public alarm

29. Enforcing the blockade

30. Clashes in the Caribbean

31. Shooting down US spy-plane

32. Crisis resolution • Trollope Ploy • Secret trade

33. Back channel

34. Credit for Kennedy? • Necessity for crisis • Firm resolve • Cold War record

35. Threat of nuclear war • Deliberate war - Soviet fears - JFK measures • Accidental war - “Falling leaves” EWS - SAC provocation

36. The Deterrence Paradigm • Central v extended deterrence • Immediate v general deterrence • Longevity - robust w/out reckless - best of a bad job - reflected institutional inertia

37. US nuclear strategy • Declaratory policy (MAD v NWF) • Employment policy (more choice) • War plan (SIOP)

38. NSTDB • 1960: 4,100 • 1974: 25,000 • 1980: 40,000 • 1982: 50,000

39. The nuclear peace: a close call • Imperative: sufficient damage to target base • US early warning system failures: 1962, 1968, 1973, 1979, 1980 • LOW: pre-delegating launch authority