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Climate Negotiations The Copenhagen Accord– A view from the Outside

Climate Negotiations The Copenhagen Accord– A view from the Outside. Ching-Pu Chen Yuan Ze University chingpu@saturn.yzu.edu.tw November 9, 2010. UNFCCC.

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Climate Negotiations The Copenhagen Accord– A view from the Outside

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  1. Climate NegotiationsThe Copenhagen Accord– A view from the Outside Ching-Pu Chen Yuan Ze University chingpu@saturn.yzu.edu.tw November 9, 2010

  2. UNFCCC “The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilise GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. “ Rio Earth Summit UNFCCC created AWG-KP under the Kyoto Protocol Bali Roadmap w/ 4 pillars COP 1 “Berlin Mandate” Negotiation start ’92 ’94 ‘96 ‘98 2000 ‘02 ’04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 AWG-LCA under The UNFCCC at COP13 UNFCCC in force March 21 COP 15 the Copenhagen Accord Kyoto Protocol

  3. Major Issues • The time frame for possible future commitment • The base data for the fixation of the commitment • The depth of the commitment for CO2 emission • The form of the commitment • The criteria of emission measurement • The Basis of Responsibility for emission • The issue of enforcement and dispute settlement.

  4. Positive forces • The perception of the severity and pace of climate change is high • One by one, countries announced the goals they would commit to in Copenhagen • The public expectation for successful COP15 was high. The opposition to a fair, binding and effective deal was very limited. • More and more leaders (122) announced that they would come to Copenhagen to “seal the deal” • Obama is not Bush, he bring change and hope Copenhagen outcome disappointed many

  5. Decision Models • What happened? • Why did it happen? • What will happen? • The Rational Actor • Organizational Behavior • Governmental Politics 1999

  6. Main Focus and Concepts– Model III

  7. Players in Position UNFCCC-COP 15 AWG-LCA AWG-KP Annex I countries EU Non-Annex I countries Den-mark China USA G77 BASIC

  8. Perception, Preferences, Stands • G77+China • includes both some of the worlds’ biggest emitters like China and India and some of the worlds’most vulnerable and poor nations • BASIC • wanted to see ambitious reductions from developed countries, but • economic growth and social problems • Others • the rich countries must legally commit to emissions reductions on the level recommended by science • Developed countries must provide the funding and resources

  9. US-China Positions • Prior to COP15, US & China announce very conservative offer, effectlively restricted negotiation space • Open accusation & blame • The USA is not willing to accept a top-down process of multilaterally negotiated legally binding constraints • The USA want to include China in legal commitments • China is accusing US not taking up its leading responsibility • Verification in China, emission reduction in the US

  10. Players in Position UNFCCC-COP 15 AWG-LCA AWG-KP Annex I countries EU Non-Annex I countries Den-mark A Catch 22 China USA G77 BASIC

  11. Stake, Deadline, Issues • Stake is high • deadline is short • Issues is vast • growing linkage to non-climate change areas

  12. Game • Action-channels • Two track process, lock into position and stands • Annex I vs Non-Annex I;Northern vs Southern • Danish Govt • NGOs, observers no action channels • Rules of the game • Unanimity • lack of a mechanism to force collective decision making in the negotiation

  13. Denmark • Denmark as the center of international politics, and to shine the “Danish Example” • wealth and welfare can be created without at the same time increasing pressure on ecosystem • a small nation can make a difference thru outstanding diplomacy • New Ministry of Climate and Energy in 2007 • “Climate diplomacy” to consult all major countries, and to build trust with parties(Greenland Dialogue) • President of the Convention • To lead or to facilitate • ‘One agreement, two steps’ • Danish Proposal • PM took over Hedegaard’s chair as president

  14. Trust • lack of compliance with prior Kyoto commitments by several OECD countries • “Climategate” • The Danish text • Yvo de Boer :'The Danish letter presented at an informal meeting a week before the COP destroyed two years of effort in one fell swoop'.

  15. Leading to a Conclusion • When the Bella Center open on 7 Dec, there is no workable text for leaders to sign off • The second day of the COP, the ‘Danish text’ leak • A very chaotic and slow process • Leaders are arriving • China’s Premier Wen Jiabao openly snubbed President Obama by sending lower ranking officials into Obama’s meeting in his stead • Obama gate-crashed a meeting to see Wen, a BASIC meeting, they striking out a deal followed by negotiation with 26 countries. • Developing countries see this document as “illegal” that had been negotiated in “secret”

  16. Action as Political Resultant • Action as political resultant • Copenhagen Accord • Decision Sudan, Bolivia and others “take note of”

  17. Insights • While the geopolitics matter, the domestic politics matter more • people are more concerned about their immediate well-being than the long-term threat of climate change • ‘Chimerica’ • Climate change can’t be solved, but only be managed • It is an ongoing process • A bottom-up approach with “pledge and review” • Transparency • Trust

  18. Thank You chingpu@saturn.yzu.edu.tw

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