LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPAN PART 1A: EARTHQUAKES

1. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS JAPANPART 1A: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE JAPAN’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE TYPHOONS FLOODS ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE LANDSLIDES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

3. THE TECTONIC PLATES

5. REGIONAL MAP

6. EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES OCCUR FREQUENTLY IN THE JAPAN AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTIONS OF THE PHILIPPINE AND EURASIAN PLATES

7. QUAKE HAZARDS • BLDG. INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • EARLY WARNING • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION EARTHQUAKE RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE Japan’ COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

8. CAUSES OF DAMAGE INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP “DISASTER LABORATORIES” POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

9. SOME OF JAPAN’S NOTABLE EARTHQUAKE EXPERIENCES 1923 JUNE 16, 1964 JANUARY 17, 1995 MARCH 11, 2011

10. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKINGIS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

11. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES • PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

12. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

13. THE GREAT KANTO EARTHQUAKE: SEPT 1, 1923 • The Mw7.9 Great Kanto earthquake, the worst in Japanese history, struck the Kanto Plain near Tokyo in 1923 and resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people. • The fiery conflagration that followed the earthquake was more deadly than the earthquake’s ground shaking.

14. THE NIIGATA EARTHQUAKE: JUNE 16, 1964 • The M7.5 Niigata earthquake devastated Niigata, located 50 km south of the epicenter, mainly as a result of massive soil failure and tsunami waves. • Although the quake only left 36 dead or missing and 385 injured, the material damage was great: 3,534 houses destroyed, 11,000 houses damaged.

15. THE GREAT HANSHIN (KOBE) EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M6.8 Kobe devastated Kobe. • Ground shaking and fires together destroyed over 150,000 buildings and left about 300,000 people homeless, 6,434 dead, 415,000 injured, and economic losses of $200 billion

20. THE TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE: JAN. 17, 1995 • The M9.0 Tojoku earthquake was huge, but its ground shaking did NOT cause the disaster that killed an estimated 21,000 people … • The tsunami generated by the earthquake did!

21. TOHOKU QUAKE: THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS

22. AN OFFSHORE EPICENTER • It only took seconds for the P-and S-waves to reach Sendai, and about 15 minutes for the tsunami waves, but what a difference in damage..

23. THE GROUND SHAKING • Strong ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1995 Kobe, Japan quake). • But, the ground shaking did not cause the disaster this time; the tsunami did.

24. TOHOKU: SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS • The earthquake ground shaking and the tsunami wave run up together caused major damage to 1.2 million buildings. • Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control. • Economic losses were estimated at $574 billion.

25. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE • ALL NATURAL HAZARDS • CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONIS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

26. WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTH-QUAKE DISASTER FOR JAPAN • A difficult question, but --- • It is one that was being asked beforethe March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake disaster.

27. LOCATION OF TOKAI

28. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (part of the Eurasian plate).

29. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The section along Tokai has not ruptured since 1854.

30. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • The recurrence interval of large- magnitude earthquakes along this boundary is believed to be 100-150 years

31. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS • At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr. • Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake could happen anytime.

32. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

33. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The precise area along the Pacific coast-about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, • And, by law, this area is the focus of intensive preparations.

34. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami.

35. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Estimated property damage –- as much as$310 billion.

36. FORECASTS: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations • Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

37. TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan has an “early warning action plan based on the concept of “pre-slip.” • Pre-slip is based on laboratory experiments, which indicate that a rock slips for a short time before it ultimately fails and generates a big quake.

38. MONITORING: TOKAI EARTHQUAKE • The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip in order to provide as much advance warning as possible.