Making the Most of Infrastructure as a Service

1. Making the Most of Infrastructure as a Service E.J. Daly CTO, Creme Global 2014-02-27

2. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

3. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

5. EU FP5 Monte Carlo Project 1999

6. CREME Project 2002-2005

7. Creme Software Ltd Formed 2005

8. By 2007… HQ:Trinity College, Lloyd Building Team: 4 People (MSc HPC Graduates)

9. Since then… • Consistently Listed Amongst the Fastest Growing Technology Companies in Ireland • Deloitte “Fast 50” • 2010: 14th • 2011: 9th • 2012: 20th • 2013: 35th • “Organic” Growth

10. Today… HQ:Trinity Technology & Enterprise Campus

11. Today… Team:23 Full Time Staff Software Engineers Quality Assurance Maths Modellers Statisticians Food Scientists Nutritionists

12. Today…

13. What exactly does Creme Global do? Predictive Intake Modelling We give decision makers access to the right data, models and expertise in a form that they can understand. We build models and software to calculate consumer exposure to substances (chemicals, flavorings, fragrances, contaminants) present in food, cosmetics, packaging, environment These analyses enable decision makers to set regulatory limits based on the real consumer exposure.

14. Creme Global - Services • Data Validation &Curation High Performance Cloud Software • Technical Services & Projects

16. Value Chain Complex Data, Large Volumes Creme Global Better Decisionsand Confidence Accurate and Trusted Results

17. Creme Global - Benefits

18. Limitations of Traditional Methods Large investments in collecting data have been made Data sets are reduced to a few basic statistics to make exposure estimates for regulatory purposes Exposure estimates are assumed to be conservative Level of conservatism is actually unknown Results are not accurate or realistic Exposure estimates can be incorrect by an order of magnitude

19. Risk Analysis and The Flaw of Averages Image: www.flawofaverages.com

20. Creme Global Methods Consumer Exposure

21. Creme Global Methods Scientifically validated models of consumer exposure and risk assessment As called for by FDA, EFSA, SCCS, USDA, FSA, etc… Use all the available real data in the exposure model Retains relationship between intakes and key factors Aggregate Exposure from multiple sources Assess substances from multiple products Cumulative Exposure from multiple substances / chemicals simultaneously from all sources Assess full formulations

22. Creme Global: Probabilistic Modelling • In an Ideal World, we would have access to complete exposure data for everyone: • How much they consume? • How often? • Which products? • The exact chemical concentration in these products? • This detailed data would enable a (relatively) straightforward calculation of population exposure • In reality, data is only available for a relatively small proportion of the population. • The software developed by Creme enables estimation of the actual population exposure from this limited data.

23. Creme Database Tables Subject demographics Subjects Products and Foods consumed Consumption Correlations Information on correlated variables Market Shares, Brand Loyalties Brands Recipe and Food Groups Info Groups Potential processing factors Processing Endpoints Substance / Chemical concentrationsin products / foods Substances e.g. ARfD, ADI

24. Creme Global: Probabilistic Modelling • The software creates a large simulated population based on the observed data, using probabilistic modelling (Monte Carlo) • The simulated population has the same usage patterns and habits as the real population • This simulated population is used to represent the real population • Exposure statistics are calculated for the simulated population

25. Creme Global: Probabilistic Modelling • Example: Dermal Exposure to Fragrance Compounds from a Cosmetics Product • Dermal Exposure (mg/cm2/day) = (F x A x C x R) / S F = Frequency of Use (of Cosmetic Product) A = Amount Per UseC = Chemical ConcentrationR = Retention FactorS = Skin Surface Area

26. Creme Global: Probabilistic Modelling • Dermal Exposure (mg/cm2/day) = (F x A x C x R) / S • These values are not available for everyone in the population • We gather information for each parameter from available data collection sources (surveys / studies) • Freq. of Use: Survey of 36000 EU/US consumers (1.2 million recorded events) • Amount per Use: Surveys of between 360 and 500 people • Chem. Conc.: Fragrance and Cosmetics Manufacturers • Retention Factors: Expert Opinion • Surface Area: US EPA

27. Creme Global: Probabilistic Modelling • Dermal Exposure (mg/cm2/day) = (F x A x C x R) / S R A C F X X X S

28. Model Output Distribution of Subjects Frequency Reference Dose Exposure (mg/kg/day)

29. Daily Average & Maximum Day Daily Average Frequency Maximum Day ARfD Exposure

30. Daily Average & Lifetime Exposure Lifetime Daily Average Frequency Exposure

31. G L O B A L F O O D

32. G L O B A L F O O D

33. C O S M E T I C S G L O B A L F O O D

34. C O S M E T I C S G L O B A L F O O D M I C R O B I A L

35. CROP PROTECTION C O S M E T I C S P E S T I C I D E S N A N O T E C H G L O B A L F O O D P A C K A G I N G M I C R O B I A L

36. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

37. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

38. Cloud Computing • How is Cloud Computing different to everything else? (Armbrust et al, 2010) • The appearance of infinite computing resources • The elimination of an up-front commitment by cloud users • The ability to pay for use of computing resources as needed (for example processors by the hour, storage by the day) • Definition from NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology): “Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction.” • More concisely: • Cloud Computing = Internet Services & Pay for what you use

39. Image: www.jansipke.nl

40. Using Iaas to provide SaaS Image: A view of Cloud Computing (Armbrustet al., 2010)

41. Leading Providers of IaaS

42. Image: blog.appcore.com

43. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

44. Creme Global Cloud Computing and IaaS Migrate to the Cloud? Business and Management Scaling Resources

45. Benefits of IaaS • High Quality, Reliable, Enterprise Grade Infrastructure • Servers • Storage • Networks • Reduce waste and inefficiency • Reduce cost • Avoid large up front capital expenditure • Avoid large in-house maintenance costs • Rapid scaling possible to fit requirement • Accessible from anywhere

46. IaaS Benefits: Scalability Image: www.techtricksworld.com

47. IaaS Benefits: Scalability Problem 1:Wasted Resources

48. IaaS Benefits: Scalability Problem 2:Losing Customers? Problem 1:Wasted Resources

49. Negatives of IaaS • Performance • Network (High Performance Computing) • Disk (not as good as performance / throughput. Database heavy applications) • Reliability in terms of performance (Not always consistent performance) • Performance of cloud is usually less than dedicated hardware • Although, some cloud providers can provide higher performance (“pay per performance”) • You can sometimes work your way around poor performance (e.g. RAID arrays) • Cost • More expensive for some applications / workflowse.g. workflows with relatively constant load • “Pound for pound” more expensive than Virtual Private Hosting, ColocationThe added flexibility and scalability comes at a cost

50. Cloud Computing: Hype Cycle