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当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China

当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China. 中国人民银行研究局 People’s Bank of China Research Department 张 涛 Zhang Tao. 增长的基本特征 Growth dynamics. Source: PBOC; NBS. 投资驱动 Reliance of GDP on Investment. 出口带动 Exports: A Key Driving Force of GDP Growth. 价格涨幅走低 Inflation Moderated (YOY).

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当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China

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  1. 当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China 中国人民银行研究局 People’s Bank of China Research Department 张 涛 Zhang Tao

  2. 增长的基本特征Growth dynamics Source: PBOC; NBS

  3. 投资驱动Reliance of GDP on Investment

  4. 出口带动Exports: A Key Driving Force of GDP Growth

  5. 价格涨幅走低Inflation Moderated (YOY) Source: NBS

  6. 生产资料价格 Production Material Prices Source: NBS

  7. Prices of Key Cement and Steel Products Source: NBS

  8. Treasury Bonds Index 资产价格 Asset Prices Stock Exchange Composite Index Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, CEIC

  9. 房地产价格上涨幅度趋缓 Real Estate Prices Source: CEIC

  10. 利率持续走低Inter-bank rates stay low Source: CEIC

  11. 金融流动性增加Rising liquidity in the financial system Source: PBOC

  12. 人民币汇率弹性增加 Greater Flexibility of RMB Rates 0 8.12 2005-8-4 2005-9-1 2005-9-8 2006-1-5 2006-2-2 2006-2-9 2006-3-2 2006-3-9 2005-7-21 2005-7-28 2005-8-11 2005-8-18 2005-8-25 2005-9-15 2005-9-22 2005-9-29 2005-10-6 2005-11-3 2005-12-1 2005-12-8 2006-1-12 2006-1-19 2006-1-26 2006-2-16 2006-2-23 2006-3-16 2006-3-23 2006-3-30 2005-10-13 2005-10-20 2005-10-27 2005-11-10 2005-11-17 2005-11-24 2005-12-15 2005-12-22 2005-12-29 -500 8.1 -1000 人民币对美元即期汇率 -1500 8.08 RMB/USD SPOT RATE -2000 一年期人民币NDF 8.06 -2500 -3000 8.04 1yr RMB NDF -3500 -4000 8.02 -4500 Source: PBOC, Reuters -5000 8

  13. 制度变革更重要 A Change of More Regime than Level • 不再紧盯美元 Stop of a de facto US $ peg • 参考一篮子货币 A basket-currency-based, but not pegged • 市场供求为基础和管理浮动 More market-based, managed floating • 外汇市场更具弹性 Supported by FX market with greater flexibility

  14. 2006 Outlook • 国内生产总值增长9+% GDP growth 9+ % • 居民消费价格指数总水平上涨2%, CPI 2% • 货币政策目标Monetary target: M2, 16%; M1,14%;人民币信贷2.5万亿元RMB lending 2.5 trillion Yuan • 宏观调控面临挑战Macroeconomic challenges

  15. “走出去”战略是对外开放的重要内容“Open-door” and “Go-overseas” • 支持企业“走出去” resource mobilization in two markets (domestic and overseas) • 支持参与国际竞争Enhancement of international competition • 积极参国际合作（ABF2）Strengthening international cooperation 批准泛亚基金作为第一个境外投资机构进入中国银行间债市科Pan-Asia Fund became the first QFII acquired market entry in the inter-bank market

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