1 / 36

Catching up, innovation and future prospects Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG/UTL) Presentation to the 2004 Globelics PhD Schoo

Catching up, innovation and future prospects Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG/UTL) Presentation to the 2004 Globelics PhD School. Presentation partially based on : J. Fagerberg and M. Godinho, Innovation and Catching Up,

zubin
Download Presentation

Catching up, innovation and future prospects Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG/UTL) Presentation to the 2004 Globelics PhD Schoo

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Catching up, innovation and future prospects Manuel Mira Godinho (ISEG/UTL) Presentation to the 2004 Globelics PhD School

  2. Presentation partially based on: J. Fagerberg and M. Godinho, Innovation and Catching Up, chapter in Jan Fagerberg, Richard R. Nelson and David Mowery (eds.) (2004), The New Oxford Handbook of Innovation, OUP.

  3. 1. “Catching Up” 2. Accounting for growth and catching up 3. Learning and Innovation 4. Future prospects for catching up 5. China

  4. Part 1 “Catching Up”

  5. Analysis of «catching up» not the same as Analysis of «economic convergence»

  6. Economic convergence literature: based on the prediction of conventional economic theory: diminishing returns to capital in advanced economies plus mobility of resources would bring poor economies closer to the richer ones • However convergence has hardly been noticed on a global level in recent decades • If anything over the last 200 years: divergence (GDPpc from 1:10 to 1:400) • Results dependent on methods and indicators used • E.g.Sala-i-Martin (2002) using country-weighted convergence measures concludes that 1990s witnessed some degree of global convergence (China effect), but divergence happened when taking into account worldwide distribution of income (again China effect)

  7. Catching up Literature • Focus on specific cases: • countries particularly successful in closing the gap in a relatively short span of time • Focus on: • Historical conditions - Institutional arrangements - Innovation, technology and learning • Old Institutionalism (Veblen...) • Economic History (Gershenkron)

  8. Catching up 1950-2000

  9. 1960 GDPpc 1999 GDPpc 1º Quartile US (West) Germany UK France Finland Italy 11.3 10.1 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.9 US Japan Singapore France Hong Kong Ireland 28.1 21.0 20.7 20.1 19.9 19.7 2º Quartile Argentina Chile Ireland Japan Spain Mexico 5.6 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.4 2.2 UK Finland (Unified) Germany Italy Taiwan Spain 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.2 16.6 14.6 3º Quartile Greece Hong Kong Portugal Brazil Singapore Malaysia 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 1.5 Portugal South Korea Greece Chile Argentina Malaysia 13.5 13.2 11.5 10.0 8.7 7.7 4º Quartile Taiwan Philippines South Korea India China 1.5 1.5 1.1 0,8 0.7 Mexico Brazil China Philippines India 6.9 5.4 3.3 2.3 1.8 23 countries 1960-1999

  10. Part 2 Accounting for growth and catching up

  11. Factors behind successful catching up  Accumulation  Structural Change  Institutional Change

  12. Where is innovation?? Next: focus just on a small part of the previous table

  13. Part 3 Learning and Innovation

  14. FDI Stock / GDP

  15. Learning: • the relevance of connecting to external sources • Exports • Imports • FDI • Licensing • Subcontracting • Example of Korea and Taiwan (Hobday, 2000) • OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturing ODM – Original Design and Manufacturing OBD – Own Branding and Design

  16. Education Level 3 20-24 years old Source: UNESCO

  17. GERD/GDP

  18. US Patents per million inhabitants in the country of origin

  19. Part 4 Prospects for catching up

  20. Questions for the future • Global convergence or divergence? • Will there be new countries catching up over the next decade(s)? • What are the factors that will account most for rapid catching up? And what will hinder most the catching up opportunities?

  21. Part 5. China5.1. Opening up 5.2. Growth and accumulation5.3. Threats

  22. 5.1. Opening up to external relations • 1978: policy shift • SEZ’s: Shenzen, Zuhai • Inward investment • Growth in trade

  23. Cumulative FDI 1978-2002 FDI/GFCF 2002  4,6% 1990s  > 10%

  24. External trade, 106 USD

  25. EXPORTS • 2001: 23% GDP • FDI exports: 56% • Share in international market 1980  1,0% 1990  1,9% 2001  4,3% • 4th world exporter • High-tech exports: 19% IMPORTS: effects on world markets

  26. 5.2. Economic Growth and accumulation GDP growth91-96: 11,6% 97-02: 7,8% Germany, Japan, US

  27. CPI

  28. Accumulation Investment rate 2002  44% Education: > 6 y.o., 2002 35% Primary education 38% Basic 13% Secondary education 5% Third level R&D, Scientific publications

  29. GERD/GDP (%)

  30. 5.3. Threats • Big train moving at high speed • What will make it get out of the tracks?

  31. Threats (1): Regional imbalances Coast 14% area 40% population 70% wealth > 90% FDI GDPpc  1:12 Demand for consumer goods in urban areas: from 19% in 1985 to 58% in 2002

  32. Threats (2): Financial risks • Overborrowing • Public sector enterprises But External Reserves: US$ 400b

  33. Threats (3): Political tensions • Taiwan • Tibet • Hong Kong • + (2) + (3) But satisfaction with income growth

  34. END

More Related