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Bipolar scenario

Bipolar scenario. Presentation: China and US intervention: agreement of mutual benefit more than cooperation China: change in the pattern of growth US: more active economic policy EU: paralysed, lack of consensus on shared objectives

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Bipolar scenario

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  1. Bipolar scenario • Presentation: • China and US intervention: agreement of mutual benefit more than cooperation • China: change in the pattern of growth • US: more active economic policy • EU: paralysed, lack of consensus on shared objectives • US and China invest in oil and gas supply at world level

  2. China: change in the pattern of growth Higher wages, increased household income and consumption Reduced profit and investment in % GDP Increased of spending on government services Reduced pressure on environment: energy saving, investment in non carbone energy Moderate appreciation of the yuan

  3. Outlook for China Real GDP growthfrom 7.5% in 2010 to 6.5% in 2020 By 2030 income per capita ($2005pp) around 28000$, close to the currentaveragelevel in Europe Consumer spendingstillwellbelow

  4. Outlook for China Progressive reduce of current surplus Moderate real appreciation of the yuan

  5. Outlook for China Energysavingpolicies Reduction of the growth of the domesticfossil fuel supply 30% of energyneeds met by imports in 2030 comparedwith 10% now

  6. USA:more active policy Growthsustained by governmentspending and privateinvestment Improvement of around 1% p.a. in GDP growth Slow recovery in employment rates due to working-age population growth

  7. Outlook for USA Growth of governmentincome Governmentdebtincreases but the ratio of debt to GDP declines to 64%

  8. Outlook for USA

  9. Europe paralysed Marginal impact on Europe from policies of China and US Government debt slightly lower in 2030, but still high in South Europe (150% GDP) and East Europe and UK (100% GDP) External position still deteriorating down to -100% GDP in South Europe, East Europe and UK

  10. Energypolicy US and China invest in oil and gas supplies in CIS, West Asia, NorthAfrica, Central America and US RisingChinese and Asian imports of energy Stable energy imports in otherregions Stabilisation of real price of oil

  11. Rest of the world Japan and other East Asian countries hardly affected India and South America adversly affected by US policies with less industrial location in South No benefit for other countries in Africa and South Asia Gains of energy exporting countries from investment in oil and gas supply compensated by effects of lower oil prices

  12. Economicpolicy issues US policy Downward pressure on $ Relax of restrictive budgetarypolicy Recovery as a solution to public debtproblem China Success in implementation of a new growthregime (higherwages, pension reforms) Yuan under control: limitedrevaluation but decreasingChinese surplus Emergence of Chinesebig business RD race between US and China

  13. Economic policy issues Monetary and financial regulation No big monetary arrangement $ remains the internaational reference currency Chinese caution in matter of financial liberalisation Pressures on euro and euro zone Trade policy Agreement of mutual benefit beween China and US with relative marginalisation of the WTO US and China negociate reciprocical opening of their markets, reinforcing their dominant positions EU paralysed with defensive position; European liberalisation policies often unilateral without getting reciprocity, especially in services and agriculture

  14. Economic policy issues Agriculture Maintaining US agricultural active policy Food independance policy in China EU with defensive policy; dismantling of the CAP Raw materials US and China selfish for natural ressources

  15. Energy and climate issues No significant progress towards more energy efficiency Oil intensive pathways and vulnerability to peak oil USA and China do not worry about CO2 emissions No climate policy ambitioned outside EU

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