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June 2012 Update of population change and school rolls for Greater Christchurch and its communities post EQ

June 2012 Update of population change and school rolls for Greater Christchurch and its communities post EQ. New material used in the Jan 29 th seminar plus a Christchurch City population estimates and projections summary. James Newell, MERA

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June 2012 Update of population change and school rolls for Greater Christchurch and its communities post EQ

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  1. June 2012 Update of population change and school rolls for Greater Christchurch and its communities post EQ New material used in the Jan 29th seminar plus a Christchurch City population estimates and projections summary James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) January 29th, 2013 Lunchtime Seminar Version as at 20th February 2013

  2. Previous outputs / reference • November 2011 Lincoln College • EQ Population and Employment Effects workshop powerpoints • 26th April 2012 • Public Seminar powerpoint • 11th June 2012 • Seminar and workshop powerpoints • 18th September 2012 • Seminar powerpoint • 5th October 2012 • Population estimates report to the Christchurch Urban Development Strategy partners released (report, summary, press release)

  3. Recent Releases • Stats NZ 2012 June year est • TA level (October 2012) • AU level (December 2012) • Stats NZ TA Projections update • Stats NZ AU2013 Pop projns – Chch only • Ministry of Education June 2012 school roll returns

  4. The Christchurch Local Population is bouncing back .. But where is it expected to land? • Analysis and report to the Chch UDS partners – showed evidence of a bounce back towards the end of the June 2012 year • It is early days, but where have the largest net population movements occurred and can we summarise the location of any “bounce back” to date? • Sources used here • july school roll trends • Where is the recovery in rolls concentrated • Community areas of loss and gain? • Attached summary excel worksheets • Population estimate trends and changes in the official snz medium population projection by area from earlier pre-earthquake projection? • Summary statistics for customised local suburban geographies based on a common denominator 2006 / 2013 area unit grouping • 2006/2013 UDS urban “divisions”, wards and area units

  5. Ministry of Education June 2012 rolls – in context

  6. Estimated annual migration of school age children – 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 years

  7. Greater Christchurch : estimated net migration of school age children by age 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12

  8. Christchurch City : estimated net migration of school age children by age 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12

  9. Waimakariri District : estimated net migration of school age children by age 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12

  10. Selwyn District : estimated net migration of school age children by age 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12

  11. Estimated changes in school age rolls by ethnicity – 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 years

  12. 2009-2012 Changes in GtrChch Lower Primary Roll by Ethnicity

  13. Features … of change 2010-2012 in lower primary roll for Greater Christchurch • 2010/2011 reduction (inferred migration) of non-NZ European children much higher in most cases tha NZ European • More likely to be in rental housing (maybe more likely to have lost their job …) • 2011/2012 continued but reduced drop (inferred migration) of NZ European children but increase / bounce back – for most other ethnic groups • Attracted back by jobs and/or only temporarily away?

  14. TA Level - Changes in lower primary school rolls

  15. 2006 Christchurch City Wards - changes in lower primary school rolls

  16. 2006 Waimakariri District Wards - changes in lower primary school rolls

  17. 2006 Selwyn District Wards - changes in lower primary school rolls

  18. Updated localised population estimates – and impact of the change in projected local resident populations(refer accompanying excel sheets for details for greater chch)

  19. For reference – previous 2006 UDS Zones, Sectors (note udsgeog used in following tables is 2013 census based)

  20. Differences between 2013 / 2006 adapted UDS urban divisions • Note that the rearrangement of 2013 area units on the 2006 pattern means that “Rural Fringe ChchNortheast” as represented on 2006 area units is grouped with “Outer surburbanChchNortheast”. • Unfortunately, this is an precisely the area which is predicted to experience the largest drop in long term population composition post EQ

  21. Stats NZ official population estimates grouped by Chch City UDS “division” (2006/2013 best fit)

  22. New vs Older Stats NZ medium projection by Chch City UDS “division” (2006/2013 best fit)

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