STLE 2012 CBM and Reliability Engineering Conference

1. STLE 2012 CBM and Reliability Engineering Conference “Achieving Reliability from Data” at Cerrejón A Living Reliability Centered Maintenance (LRCM) project Gerardo Vargas, Carbones del Cerrejón Ltda. Juan Carlos Consuegra, Carbones del Cerrejón Ltda. Oscar Hoyos Living Reliability (presenter) Murray Wiseman, OMDEC Inc. Dr. Daming Lin, OMDEC Inc.

2. Introduction – Main Actors • Carbones del Cerrejón – World´slargestexportcoalminingoperation • OMDEC – EXAKT CBM Optimizing Software • Living Reliability – Consultants in Living RCM (LRCM)

3. Commonly used terms • LRCM: Living Reliability Centered Maintenance • CMMS: Computerized Maintenance Management System • Event type: How a failure mode’s life cycle ends? By: • Potential Failure (PF) • Functional Failure (FF) • Suspension (S) • PHM: Proportional Hazard Model. Extends Weibull to include CBM data. • CBM: Condition Based Maintenance

4. RCM What are the item’s functions to be conserved? (The performance requirement) In what ways can these functions be compromised? (The failure or failed state) What causes the loss of function? (The failure mode) What happens? (The effects) How does it matter? (The consequences (H, S, O, N)? What maintenance task should be done to avoid or lessen the consequences? What if no appropriate maintenance task can be found?

5. Introduction - Assertions Withoutanadequate data samplethere can be no ReliabilityAnalysis (RA) Withoutanalysisthere can be no systematicverifiableimprovement in reliabilityor in operationaleconomy.

6. Introduction - What is a sample? Events table CMMS Work orders EF15 Work ord. 1, FF RCMREF15 B15 EF16 Work ord. 2, FF RCMREF16 B16 Work ord. 3, FF RCMREF16 Sample EF16 B16 Calendar Time Work ord. 4, S RCMREF15 ES15 B15 Work ord. 5, PF RCMREF15 EF15 B15 Life cycles: Left Suspensions: Right (Temporary) Suspensions: EF, ES: endings by failure, suspension B: Beginnings

7. Objective To describe a method wherein completed maintenance work orders capture RA enabling information

8. Agenda  • Introduction • Objective • CBM decisions • The CBM model • The obstacles • The Living RCM solution • Results • Summary • Questions and discussion 

9. CBM Decisions Three decisions whether to: Stop the equipment as soon as possible and perform a specific preventative action as indicated by the monitored data, or Schedule an indicated preventative maintenance action within a specific and safe time period, or Carry on with the normal operation of the equipment until the next CBM inspection and evaluation.

10. Cerrejon´s requirements for CBM • The three criteria • Optimal • Automated • Verifiable CBM Method: Oil AnalysisFailure mode: General Engine WearRULE: 2090 hoursStdDev: 1445 hours

11. Decision based on: Probability Scatter RULE CBM optimal model Hazard model + Predictive Model RULE and Confidence interval + Cost model EXAKT Decision based on: Cost and Probability

12. The obstacles There are two possible reasons for the unsatisfactory performance of CBM decision model. The condition monitoring variables that are available to the CBM program intrinsically bear little or no relationship to the actual failure modes that occur in the fleet. Or, The data sample used to build the predictive model does not distinguish between Failure and Suspension.

13. 100 FE ppm Obstacle 1 “ the CBM variable have no relationship to actual failure modes” PDF f(t) PDF f(t) Working age t High predictability Low predictability Working age t PHM Analysis Weibull Analysis

14. Obstacle 1 “ the CBM variable have no relationship to actual failure modes” Non (low) influential indicators

15. Obstacle 2 Mistaking suspensions for failures Misreporting suspensions as failures (or potential failures) will weaken the model in two ways: It will inflate the shape parameter causing decisions to be predominantly age based, regardless of intrinsically good (predictive) CBM condition indicators. And, ….

16. Obstacle 2 Mistaking suspensions for failures It will increase the scatter, and consequently confidence in prediction. This point raises a subject that RCM stresses as one of prime importance. What shall be the “standard” used to declare failure?

17. The Living RCM solution • Capturing the right information in the work orders system (CMMS) • Generating automatically a sample for RA • Motivation, leadership, and training • Low and high level performance metrics

18. 1. Capturing the right information in the work orders system (CMMS) Ellipse - Baseman Work Order Event type (FF, FP, S) RCM concepts • Free text (updates) • What I did? • What I found?

19. 1. Capturing the right information in the work orders system (CMMS) RCM as the main language of maintenance. System Component Function Failure Failure mode Efects Selecting the Event Type determines the entire sample point Updates to the RCM Knowledge base Living Reliability

20. 2. Generating automatically a sample for RA

21. 3.Motivation, leadership, and training An LRCM project implementation succeeds based on a realization that personnel respond to the intangibles: • Recognition, • Empowerment, • Interest by management in their activities, and • Training.

22. 4. High and low KPI´s • Performance metrics should point us precisely to what we need to improve currently in our maintenance process. • That is, they should trigger a control action. Subsequently they should confirm and measure the extent to which the control action had the desired effect.

23. 4. High level KPI´s High level (lagging) KPIs : provide, at various levels of granularity, such measures as: • MTTF, MTTR, Availability • Costs, and • Yield

24. Low level KPI´s Low level (leading) KPIs : should measure such indicators as: • RCM knowledge added, The number of links between RCM knowledge and work orders, The number of RA performed CBM performance: • Standard deviation in remaining useful life estimation • The influence of current CBM variables as reported by the PHM shape parameter

25. The managers job It is the manager’s job to set low level objectives that: • Employees can influence by the way they perform their duties, and that • Support the high level organizational targets.

26. The results achieved Better analysis (lower shape factor, lower standard deviation ) More confidence in making decisions The maintenance personnel have now a method to register in a precise way the right information inside the W.O. system. More Reliability Analysis Develops, verifies, and continually improves optimal maintenance policies Updates to the knowledge base

27. The results achieved % of Satisfactory W.O Improvement in the quality of the information required for RA: Fleet 789C Today 90% May 40% % of Satisfactory W.O July 70% Carbones del Cerrejón

28. The results achieved Updates in the RCM knowledge base: Carbones del Cerrejón

29. High availability Low cost Reliability Analysis (RA) Age data (CMMS) CBM data Cost data Optimal decision models Summary • Use the language of RCM to guarantee the right information from the work order system (CMMS) • Add the condition monitoring (CBM) data • Apply Reliability Analysis to generate optimal DMs.

30. More information Managing LRCM LRCM KPIs LRCM and HSE and Other related topics www.livingreliability.com

31. Questions ? Thank you for your attention Do you have any questions? www.livingreliability.com oscar.hoyos@livingreliability.com