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OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030

NEEDS Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy”. OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030. Manfred Hafner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie. NEEDS Forum 2 Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues

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OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030

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  1. NEEDS Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy” OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030 Manfred Hafner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie NEEDS Forum 2 Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues Krakow, 5-6 July 2007

  2. Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extraction and transport energy” • OIL • NATURAL GAS • ELECTRICITY • HYDROGEN • Supply/Demand scenarios • Flows & Routes • Critical passages • New technology & regulation • Burdens • Impacts • Risk Analysis • Economic valuation

  3. N NE SE S 2005e*: Gas Supply to EU-25 2005e Cons. 502 bcm Imports 290 bcm Gas Supplies to EU-15 78 bcm Norway 27% 126 bcm Russia 43% Russia 48100 Norway 3000 Netherlands 1800 U.K. 700 Turkmenistan 2860 Iran 23000 2,000 km 7 bcm Gulf 2% 4,000 km Qatar 14400 6,000 km Algeria 4520 Libya 1310 Egypt 1660 Oman 800 Abu Dhabi 6000 SEMCs 68 bcm (23%) 56 bcm Algeria 6 bcm Libya 6 bcm Egypt Other Africa 11 bcm Nigeria (4%) Trinidad 330 Venezuela 4000 Nigeria 3510 * first 2005 estimates Source: OME, May 2006

  4. => Driven mainly by power generation 707 2.8%/y 287 423 126 180 1.2%/y 125 1.1%/y 172 240 EU-25 Gas Demand (by sector) *Baseline scenario ‘’European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004’’

  5. Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030 Source: EC DG TREN

  6. District heat & other 6% Households 18% Services 6% Industrial sector 13% Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030 Primarily competing against oil and electricity for space heating. Substitution effect not as strong as income effect High energy prices more likely to induce energy efficiency improvements

  7. Power sector 57% Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030 Competing against coal, nuclear & renewables Substitution effect stronger than income effect Largest source of gas demand growth is the most sensitive to higher energy prices!!

  8. EU-25 Natural Gas Imports * Strongly increasing gas import requirements* High uncertainty due to development in: - demand - domestic production Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

  9. MAIN GAS REGIONS FOR EUROPEAN SUPPLY • NORTH AFRICA : • Algeria, Libya, Egypt • NORTH SEA : • Norway • RUSSIA • THE CASPIAN AREA AND CENTRAL ASIA: • Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan • THE GULF : • Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Yemen • WEST AFRICA : • Nigeria, Angola • SOUTH AMERICA : • Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela

  10. 304 304 304 bcm bcm bcm 2005 2005 2005 447 447 447 bcm bcm bcm 2010 2010 2010 619 619 619 bcm bcm bcm 2020 2020 2020 695 695 695 bcm bcm bcm 2030 2030 2030 NORWAY NORWAY 207 207 100 100 95 95 94 94 81 81 RUSSIA and Central Asia RUSSIA 196 196 166 166 139 139 1 1 T&T + VENEZ. T&T + VENEZ. 6 6 6 6 6 6 AZERB AZERB . . 13 13 13 13 TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN W. AFRICA W. AFRICA 35 35 5 5 20 20 35 35 IRAQ IRAQ IRAN IRAN 11 11 21 21 57 57 81 81 110 110 115 115 38 38 45 45 5 5 12 12 25 25 38 38 ALGERIA ALGERIA 5 5 23 23 28 28 28 28 7 7 44 44 68 68 88 88 LIBYA LIBYA EGYPT EGYPT QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN Future gas export potential for Europe

  11. LNG (G.Touil) 5 bcm Algeria : Gas Export Projects Algeria-Italy via Sardinia Corsica (Galsi) 8 to 16 bcm ITALIY PORTUGAL SPAIN Algeria-Italy Enrico Mattei Gasline (EMG, ex-Transmed) 25 to 31 bcm Algeria-Spain (Medgaz) 8 to 16 bcm LNG Algeria 27 to 38 bcm SICILY Skikda ALGER Arzew BeniSaf EMG Pedro Duran Farell Gasline (PDFG, ex-GME) 11.5 to 18-20 bcm PDFG TUNISIA Hassi R’Mel MOROCCO - - Algeria Export Gas Capacities ALGERIA R.Nouss Hamra Tegentour TFT Reg Ohanet In Amenas Ahnet In Salah Gasline Projects Existing Gaslines Existing LNG Plant LNG Plant Projects Source: OME, May 2006 TSGP Nigeria-Algeria to Europe

  12. Gasline Projects Existing Gaslines Existing LNG Plant LNG Plant Projects LIBYA : Gas Export Projects ITALIY SPAIN PORTUGAL EMG, ex-Transmed SICILE Skikda ALGER Arzew Libya-Italy (Greenstream) TUNISIA ALGERIA 8 to 16-24 bcm Bouri LNG Libya 1 to 9-14 bcm TRIPOLI Libya-Tunisia 2 bcm MOROCCO Hassi R’Mel Marsat El Braga - Libya Gas Export Capacities (bcm) Bassin de Ghadames Hatiba Zelten LIBYA Wafa Source: OME, May 2006

  13. Gasline Projects Existing Gaslines Existing LNG Plant LNG Plant Projects Egypt : Gas Export Projects Damietta SEGAS (UFG) 2x6.9 bcm Idku ELNG (BG) 3x4.8 bcm Trans Machrek Pipeline 3 to 10 bcm Taba Capacities of Egypt Gas Export Projects (bcm) Source : Petroleum Economist & OME, May 2006 * these figures refer to possible projects but which are not counted in the total

  14. Shtokmanovskoye Existing Gas Pipeline Gas Pipeline Project Snohvit Shtockman LNG 23 bcm Snohvit LNG 6-11 bcm Haltenbanken Asgard fields/ ATS 21 bcm FINLAND ATS Ormen Lange/Britpipe 22 bcm SWEDEN Ormen Lange NORWAY Murchison Troll Eastern axe 45 bcm Norpipe 11 bcm Europipe I 13 bcm Europipe II 21 bcm Frigg/Vesterled 13 bcm Frigg HELSINKI STOCKHOLM TALLINN Nord Stream 27-55 bcm Europipe II Western axe 28 bcm Zeepipe 13 bcm Franpipe 15 bcm DENMARK Europipe I NEGP COPENHAGEN Easington Norpipe Zeepipe Franpipe Yamal - Europe Bacton Balgzand Isle of Grain 5/10 BBL 20 bcm SCANDINAVIAN GAS NETWORK:EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES Norwegian Gas Export Capacity (bcm/yr) Source: OME, May 2006

  15. RUSSIA : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES Yamal LNG 25 bcm YAMAL Shtokmanovskoye Bovanenko BARENTS SEA Urengoy TYUMEN Shtockman LNG 23 bcm Shtokmanovskoye Europe Baltic Pipeline 18-35 bcm RUSSIA Northern Route STOCKHOLM HELSINKI St Petersburg TALLINN Central Route BALTIC SEA Nord Stream Gas Pipeline 27-55 bcm Yamal I- Europe 29 to 32 bcm Yamal II - Europe +32 bcm Souhern Route MOSCOW Yamal - Europe Kondratki MINSK WARSAW Aleksandrov-Gay KAZAKHSTAN Novopskov Uzhgorod UKRAINE New Transit Line through Ukraine 28 bcm Blue Stream 16 bcm Izmail CAPACITY OF RUSSIAN GAS EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE to EUROPE * This capacity is less likely and has not been included in the Total. Source: OME, May 2006

  16. Russia: important gas import potential from Central Asia

  17. AZERBAIJAN OME, Sept 2005

  18. South Eastern European gas pipeline projects Nabucco South Stream Blue Stream Nabucco TGI

  19. Cap. (Mt/y) Das Island (1, 2 &3) 5.7 Das Island (Tr.4) 3.3 Gulf: LNG Export Projects bcm/yr ISTANBUL Marmara Izmir Ankara Kayseri TURKEY Ceyhan Aleppo DAMASCUS Homs BAGHDAD Alexandria Port Said Amman Cap. (Mt/y) Iran LNG (BP/Reliance India) 9 Basra Cap. (Mt/y) Pars LNG (Total/Petronas) 10 KUWAIT Qatargas I (tr.1, 2&3) 9.6 NIOC LNG (BG/ENI) 9 Persian LNG (Shell/Repsol) 9 Assaluyeh Qatargas II Tr4&5 (ExxonM to UK) 15.6 Qatargas III Tr7(Conocco to US) 7.5 SAUDI ARABIA North Field Qatargas IV Tr8(Conocco to US) 7.8 Rasgas I (tr.1&2) 6.6 BAHRAIN Dubai Rasgas II (tr. 3 &4) 9.4 Dolphin Project QATAR Das Island ABU DHABI Rasgas II (new tr. 5) 4.7 Yanbu Sohar RIYADH UAE Rasgas II Tr6-7(ExxonM to US) 15.6 MUSCAT OMAN Sur Source: OME, May 2006 Cap. (Mt/y) Oman LNG (Tr.1& 2) 7.0 Oman LNG (Tr.3) 3.3

  20. GAS CORRIDORS TO EUROPE

  21. N NE SE S 2005 Consumption 670 Mt Gross Imports 627 Mt Oil Supplies to EU25 99 Mt Norway 16% 222 Mt Russia 36% 137 Mt Gulf 22% 17 Mt Amer. 4% SEMCs 107 Mt (18%) 29 Mt Algeria 65 Mt Libya 3 Mt Egypt 10 Mt Syria Other Africa 44 Mt (7%) Source: OME, 2006

  22. EU-25 Oil Imports Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

  23. EU Oil Import scenario (in Mb/d) Source:OME

  24. Imports to Europe Seaborne trade to increase from 85% to 89%

  25. Africa

  26. Middle East Qatar Kuwait

  27. Caspian

  28. NORWAY

  29. RUSSIA

  30. EU crude oil imports by transport mode

  31. Future evolution of EU crude oil imports by transport mode

  32. EU Crude Oil Imports Flows – Summary 2004 Base Case (Mt)

  33. Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), REF CASE AtlanticMed. Export Import Pipeline 5 8 12 84 0.2 61 3 3 74 9 82 65 30 23 33 A Caspian 65 21 35 23 65 M 54 14 25 1 L. America 9 13 0.2 75 Gulf 56 55 105 16 Other Africa 23

  34. EU Oil Imports (2004)

  35. European Oil maritime routes Source: ITOPF

  36. Gibraltar Strait Andalusia (Spain) Population(2005):7552978 Area: 87599kmq Tangier-Tétouan (Morocco) Population(2005): 2470372 Area: 11570 kmq Sicily Strait Sicily Population (2004): 5013081 Area: 25710 kmq Nabeul Governorate (Tunisia) Population (2004): 694000 Area: 2788 kmq Hot spots: the Ras Tanura –Rotterdam route Primorsk Leningrad Oblast (Russia) Population (2002): 1669205 Area: 84500 kmq French Finistére Bretagne (France) Population (2004): 3020885 Area: 27208 kmq Dover Strait Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) Populaion (2004): 4027706 Area: 12414 kmq South East England Population (2004): 8095261 Area: 19096 kmq Spanish Finistere Galicia (Spain) Population (2004): 2706126 Area: 29574 kmq Ras Tanura Eastern Province (Saudi Arabia) Population (2004): 3360157 Area: 710000 kmq Suez Canal Egypt Regions around the Suez Canal Population (2004): 1816200 Area: 22321 kmq

  37. Crete Population (2004): 601000 Area: 8336 kmq Hot spots: the Novorossisk – Augusta route Novorossisk Kraj di Krasnodar (Russia) Population (2004): 5125221 Area: 83600 kmq Augusta Sicily Population (2004): 5013081 Area: 25710 kmq Bosphorus Istambul (Turkey) Populaion (2005): 10018735 Area: 5170 kmq Kocaeli (Turkey) Population (2005): 1206085 Area: 3635 kmq Aegean sea Northern Aegean Population (2004): 206000 Area: 3836 kmq Southern Aegean Population (2004):302000 Area: 5286 kmq

  38. Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy” • Results of externality values associated to the fuel chain up to the EU border ready by September 2007 • Operational externalities (extraction and transport) • Accidental/probabilistic externalities (extraction and transport) • The NEEDS project does not specifically target “security of supply” issues, but rather “environmental externalities”

  39. WP2. Value of energy security Estimation of consumers’ risk aversion and willingness to pay for security WP5. Models and tools by energy source 5.1. Oil - External supply - Internal supply - Geopolitical risks - Technical risks - Economic & regulatory risks 5.2. Natural gas WP3. Long term policy lines Qualitative analysis of energy policy options and scenarios for the EU 5.3. Coal 5.4. Nuclear 5.5. Renewable energy sources • WP4. Quantitative global models • Long term energy scenarios based on policy lines • Adaptation of the POLES model to include risk assessment • Development of energy risks assessment model (ERA) • Quantitative analysis of policy recommendations 5.6. Electricity 5.7. Impact of accidents and terrorist threats 5.8. Demand dimension of energy security WP6. Results and policy recommendations SECURE project proposal FP7: Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications WP1. Methodological developments Definition of concepts and general methodology of the project WP7. Stakeholders consultations and dissemination

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