Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country:

1. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country: Case study in Lao PDRandThailand Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand

2. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Outline: • Why this is an issue? • Introduction to pilot research project: Assessment on Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) AS07 • Scope of the project • Some outlook on climate risk in South-east Asia region • Approaches and methods in study of impact, vulnerability and adaptation • Issues concern engaging stakeholders involvement and approaches taken

3. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Why this is an issue in developing countries: Lao PDR & Thailand? • Stakeholder involvement is an approach driven by current trend of research and becomes guideline from many agencies • New approach to the region - very limited numbers of research in this manner has been carried out in the region so far • Most stakeholders in Lao PDR & Thailand still do not clearly understand the study on impact of climate change • Needs for study - countries have commitment to study impacts of climate change and prepare adaptation plan e.g. National Communication, National Adaptation Plan for Action, etc. • Still an on-going, tried-and-true process

4. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country A pilot research: Assessment on Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) • AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change • What are impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle and fresh water resources in Mekong River Basin? • What are impacts of climate & water change on agriculture in Mekong River Basin? • How to narrow uncertainties of climate and hydrological models on a regional scale? • Who is vulnerable and what to do about it? • Timeframe: 2002 - 2004

5. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country • High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios: 1st effort in the region • Simulated future climate scenario 10x10km for Mekong River region • The simulations forced by elevated atmospheric CO2 levels from baseline of 360 ppm to 540 ppm and 720 ppm, or about 1.5 and 2 times CCAM climate model

6. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country • Preliminary finding: • The areas that appear most sensitive to climate change • Southern part of Lao PDR, receives increases in simulated rain to around 4,500 mm/year during the wet years, compared with about 2,500 mm/year for wet years during the baseline decade. • Most part of Cambodia will have significantly increase in rainfall to around 3,500 mm/year, compare with 2,500 mm/year during the baseline decade.

7. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country • Preliminary finding: • Red River delta and coastal area - Viet Nam, increase annual rainfall of more than 5,000 mm/year, up from about 2,500 mm/year for the wet years during the baseline decade • Thai-Malay Peninsula – high fluctuation between wet and dry years in a decade. • Even though, the rainfall amount may not be much differ, but there is potential of raining season pattern change

8. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential climate risk on Water Resource • Significant reduction in water supply in upper Mekong -- Yunnan, China -- but may be less erosion • Some water shortage in dry season in most southern landforms due to longer and dryer season • Deteriorated water quality--salinity, acidification, etc.--in some areas due to reduced flushing during dry spells

9. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential climate risk on rain-fed agriculture • Rain-fed agriculture in Southern China will be highly affected by total reduction in precipitation • Impact on rain-fed rice cultivation in most part of lower Mekong region from seasonal shift and change in rainfall pattern

10. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential climate risk on human settlement and urbanization • Potential for more intense and longer flood lower Mekong region, especially in September and October

11. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential climate risk on Natural Ecosystems • Possibility for drying-out of some wetlands in China • Impact on migratory species caused by change in water regime in wetland due to the change in rainy season pattern. Possibility in most of lower part of Mekong region • Treat to wild fish stock and capture fishery, especially in the lower part of Mekong River

12. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential impact of climate change on hydrological condition Will water cycle in Mekong River Basin change from impact of climate change? If yes, where will the impact be and to what extent? Who will be vulnerable? How? Where? What to do about it? Climate scenarios Land use/cover scenarios Precipitation/ Tmax/ Tmin/ windspeed Hydrological Model Runoff profiles Runoff profiles Runoff profiles V & A Analysis

13. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Potential impact of climate change on rain-fed agriculture How does future climate pattern alter crop production? How would climate change impact different crop management schemes? Who would be vulnerable? How and where? Climate scenarios Crop management scheme Precipitation/ Tmax/ Tmin/ SRAD Crop Model Potential increase of extreme event Crop Yield Scenarios V & A Analysis

14. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation Who will vulnerable? How? What to do about it? Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario Changes in water availability and rice production Changes in water availability and rice production Scenarios Vulnerability Vulnerability Adaptation new no expand sufficient Adaptation capacity Sustainable livelihood yes

15. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation: Stakeholders involvement Engaging Local Community:Interview & focus group with local farmer community Thailand: Ubonratchathani province (covering approx. 600 households in 18 villages in 2 districts) Vietnam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An Giang provinces (Covering 32 communes in 16 districts) Lao PDR: Savannakhet province (covering approx. 100 households in the villages of Lahakhoke, Sebungnuantay, Dongkhamphou, and Kouthee in Songkhone district) Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop

16. Vulnerability and adaptation assessment on impact of climate change on farmer community Potential impact on rain-fed agriculture Identifying vulnerable group: Local farmer community Alternate source of income 1. Yes/stable Farmer community 2. No/unstable Resources for production system 3. Sufficient 4. Not sufficient 5. High 6. Low Own land, sufficient fund, sufficient manpower Livelihood dependency on rice production Rice production VS Household total expenses Vulnerable Group 2+4+5 2+3+5 2+4+6 Non-Vulnerable Group 1+3+6 1+4+5 1+3+5 1+4+6 2+3+6

17. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Who will vulnerable? – Identifying vulnerable group • Key questions: • Does farmer has alternate source of income? • In case of damage in rice production, does household has any other sufficient source of income to sustain the living? • Is it secured source? • Does farmer has adequate resources for rice production? • Does household own sufficient land, capital and man-power to produce rice at the desired quantity? • Any debt? Or need to borrow money / hire man-power to do farming? • What is the level of livelihood dependency on rice production? • Ratio of rice production in $ value compare to household annual expenditure

18. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country What is current adaptive capacity? • Key questions: • What is the current adaptation strategy? • What does farmer do when rice production damage from impact of climate variability, e.g. flood – drought – inappropriate rainfall pattern? • Different adaptation to different level of impact? • Different adaptation to different frequency of climate variability? • What is the tolerating threshold of farmer to the damage in rice production? • How damage or how often of damage in rice production will result in different occupation of the household?

19. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Conducting research on impact and assessment on vulnerability & adaptation to climate change is not straightforward process in developing country • Issues: Engaging vulnerable group in local community, policy maker and local research partner • Cultural • Institutional • Technical • Operational

20. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Stakeholder: Policy maker • Issue: • No agency whose mandate is to do research and policy planning on climate change - involvement by multiple agencies • What would be information required for future policy planning? • Cooperation – particularly when cross country • Priority given to the climate change issue • More toward CDM rather than impact, vulnerability and adaptation • Awareness & Understanding of the method & process • “Potential” impact from climate change is something occur too far in the future • Need explicit answer – lack of understanding in the multiple scenarios

21. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Stakeholder: Policy maker • Approach: • Create public awareness on the potential impact of climate change to gain government attention • Research focused on climate variability to trigger and justify the effort to establish some of the mechanisms to support adaptation to today climate variability, which in time, will be fine tuned to adaptation to climate change • Approach through intergovernmental agency – APN, GEF, etc. • Keep all involved agencies informed as much as possible • Make them aware • Make them feel involved • Gain their cooperation

22. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Stakeholder: Local farmer community • Issue: • Communication – gap in language used to communicate • Lack of awareness on climate change • Differentiating “Climate Change” – “Climate Variability” – “Weather” • Meaning of sustainable livelihood • Response to assessment – asking sensitive questions may get altered answer • Priority in cooperation to the study Stakeholders meeting in Sakon Nakorn Province, Thailand

23. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Stakeholder: Local farmer community • Approach: • Local research partner – use proper language & terms • Small group meeting – to extend understanding into leaders of the target community prior to the assessment • Use climate variability as foundation to assess the adaptive capacity and vulnerability analysis • Avoid crop season Stakeholders meeting in Attapeu Province, Lao PDR

24. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Local research partner • Issue: • Cross country research need local research partner • Multidisciplinary research– multiple agencies involved – but lack of cooperation • Lack of understanding in research method – the use of scenarios • Institutional issue • Research institute on climate change does not exist • University not mandate to do research • Limited research in this field of study • Local research partners lack know-how and understanding Technical workshop on the study of impact of climate change on hydrological regimefor scientists and government officials from Lao PDR and Thailand

25. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Engaging Local research partner • Approach: • Conduct series of training workshop – led by external expert • Research exercise after workshop – divide research components into discreet tasks for each group/involved agency • Serious capacity building program – short & long term • Technical workshop • Short term fellowship • Full degree scholarship Technical workshop on the study of impact of climate change on rain-fed rice production for scientists and government officials from Lao PDR and Thailand

26. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country • Other Issues: • Data availability • Data scattered in many government agencies • Data owner is sensitive in providing data to research team • Approach: • Conduct series of workshop – involve all agencies • “B-Y-O” data to use in workshop • Analysis tool made available by organizer • Analysis method will be taught • Jointly conduct analysis in the workshop • Result will be shared among all participants • Data will never leave the room and returned to owners Weather data collection from field automated data logger in Thailand

27. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country • Summary: • Climate change study has a long way to go in these countries • Engaging stakeholders in the developing country into the study of climate change is still an ongoing process • Top-down policy making practice in developing country make policy maker neglect other stakeholders in the policy making process • Uncertainty in this field of study needs to be educated to all stakeholders • Learning to cope with climate variability = adapt to longer term climate change • Long term capacity building is required

28. Initiating Stakeholder-driven Research on Impact of Climate Change in Developing Country Thank You