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Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007

Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007. Daniel Cohan Presentation to Georgia EPD November 20, 2003. Year 2000 Emissions. Projection. Year 2007 Emissions. Aug. 2000 Meteorology. CMAQ – DDM3D. Projected Concentrations (e.g., O 3 ). Projected Sensitivities (e.g., dO 3 /dNO x ).

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Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007

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  1. Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in Georgia in 2007 Daniel Cohan Presentation to Georgia EPD November 20, 2003

  2. Year 2000 Emissions Projection Year 2007 Emissions Aug. 2000 Meteorology CMAQ – DDM3D Projected Concentrations (e.g., O3) Projected Sensitivities (e.g., dO3/dNOx)

  3. DDM andBrute Force Conc. (e.g., O3) ∆Ci a1 Sens. Parameter (e.g., VOC Emissions) Dpj

  4. Decoupled Direct Method 3D Concentrations (t) Concentrations (t+Δt) Chemistry Advection & Diffusion I.C., B.C., Emissions Chemistry Sensitivities (t) Sensitivities (t+Δt)

  5. Flexibility of DDM • Sensitivity of all concentrations to: • Emissions, initial conditions, or boundary conditions… • …of any one or more species… • …from any location… • …at any time… • …from any category of emissions. • e.g., sensitivity to non-road emissions of NO and NO2 in Fulton County between 2pm-6pm

  6. Sensitivities computed so far… • August 11-20, 2000, 2007 projection: • Atlanta MSA • Point, Mobile, Area+Non-road NOx • Total VOC • 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC • Macon MSA • Mobile, non-mobile NOx • Branch & Scherer NOx (1st and 2nd order) • Total VOC • 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC • Augusta MSA • Mobile, point, area+non-road NOx • Total VOC • 2nd order to total NOx and total VOC • Columbus MSA NOx

  7. DDM Statistical Agreement: r2 of DDM vs. Brute Force (+/- 10% NOx)

  8. August 15

  9. August 16

  10. August 17

  11. August 18

  12. August 19

  13. August 17: Difference Plot

  14. Impact of Atlanta: Aug. 17

  15. Average Sensitivity of 8-hour Ozone at Atlanta Monitors

  16. Macon Ozone

  17. Sensitivity of 8-hour ozone to NOx, Aug. 17 Macon Branch Scherer Atlanta

  18. Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Macon

  19. Augusta Ozone

  20. Augusta, Aug. 17

  21. Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Augusta

  22. Columbus, Aug. 17

  23. Sensitivity of 8-hr Ozone in Columbus

  24. Taylor-Series Expansion: Decomposing Changes in Ozone Ozone A O3,A 1st-Order: E * S1 2nd-Order: 0.5(E)2 * S2 O3,B B EB Emissions EA

  25. Significance of 2nd Order (Atlanta, Aug. 17)

  26. Average of ATL Monitors, Aug. 17

  27. Next Steps • Associate sensitivities with emission rates to get ppb_ozone / tons_NOx for control strategy analysis • 1999 Episode • Your suggestions?

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