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IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

Global scenarios and regional trends of nuclear energy development in the 21 st century Preliminary analytical assessment of nuclear energy role as a factor of stability: global and regional aspects A.Yu. Gagarinski, S.A. Subbotin, V.F. Tsibulski 26–30 January 2009.

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IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

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  1. Global scenarios and regional trends of nuclear energy development in the 21st centuryPreliminary analytical assessment of nuclear energy role as a factor of stability: global and regional aspectsA.Yu. Gagarinski, S.A. Subbotin, V.F. Tsibulski26–30 January 2009 IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

  2. Regions of the World

  3. Energy resources availability depending on their extraction cost Gas U-238 Coal Oil Fuel recourses, EJ Integral primary Energy consumption In the 21 century (medium scenarios) U-235 extraction cost, USD/GJ “?” What it is easier – to change economic way, Or to create INS adequate to principles of sustainable development, providing access to remote resources of poor quality – creation of INS capable effectively to use uranium - 238 and thorium in the closed fuel cycle?

  4. Energy resource distribution. Industrial &Household Transportation Electricity and Heat 1830 mtoe (4500 mtoe ) (3800mtoe) 3700 мtoe 2400 мtoe 2200 мtoe 1100 мtoe 690 мtoe 300 мtoe Biomass& waste Coal Gas Renewable Nuclear Oil Structure of consumption primary energy resources(2005)

  5. Dynamics oil discovery and oil recovery in the world Oil resources, Gbr Gain of stocks Including, Deposits-giants Oil recovery Year Growing gap between gain of resources And rates of extraction of oil: The end of "the Era of cheap raw materials»

  6. IEA, Global Energy Outlook, 2003. Resources and consumption of oil and gas (contemporary estimation and increased resources, in 2 times) rate of commissioning of new resources or technologies is not acceptable for liberalized economy It can be expected that already in 10 years from now it will be necessary to consider NE as the necessary stabilizing factor of sustainable development of the whole power sector.

  7. Dynamics of discount rate of FRS (discount rate is real price of money– Gen IV)

  8. Oil recovery (Go 453 bil. t) ( Go 800 bil. t) Млн. тонн Млн. тонн 152 billion tons have been already extracted from 164 billion tons of proven resources Gas recovery (Go 310 trill. cub. m) (Go 800 trill. cub. m) Млрд. м3 Млрд. м3 By now: 86 trill. m3extracted.Proven reserves=180 trill. cub. m.

  9. Oil 0.9 times Gas1.1 times Coal 4 times Biomass3 times Hydro2 times Renewable 9 times NE3times

  10. Scenarios and ranges of projected installed nuclear capacity

  11. Nuclear Energy as a factor of stability Sustainable development: • Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. One of the main objectives of INPRO is to: • Help to ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute in fulfilling, in a sustainable manner, energy needs in the 21st century.

  12. INPRO Task 3 Study: • Analyze in a generalized manner possible development of nuclear energy system and its impact on sustainable energy supply taking into account present directions of the development of different regions of the world; • Develop a broad matrix framework for innovative nuclear energy system (INS) adequate to provide the NE growth rates related to sustainability challenges; • Indicate R&D and institutional directions to be explored in further details in order to achieve required innovations for possible deployment of INS in the future.

  13. Nuclear Energy as a factor of stability: The society can be sustainable, if: • The rates of consumption of renewable resources do not exceed rates of their restoration; • The rates of consumption of nonrenewable resources do not exceed rates of development of their steady sustainable replacement; • Intensity of polluting substances releases (manufactures of wastes) do not exceed an opportunity of environment to assimilate them. NE has two resources: • Neutron – as thoughrenewable: consumed U-235 must (or should?) be replaced by Pu or/and U-233; • Energy – U-238 and Th-232: (Environmental Basic principle BP2: The INS shall be capable of contributing to the energy needs in the 21st century while making efficient use of non-renewable resources ) rate of consumption should not be grater than extraction rate; • Waste Management Basic Principle BP3: (Burden on future generations) Radioactive waste in an INS shall be managed in such a way that it will not impose undue burdens on future generations.

  14. Difference of neutron balance for Reactor and INS • The potential of neutron balance in a reactor at fissioning of uranium-235 and 233, plutonium 239, 241 is defined by size (--α. • The potential of neutron balance in system AE at use of all uranium-238 or thorium-232 is defined by size (--α-. Surplus of neutrons in a reactor allows to spend them for simplification of the decision of problems of convenience of operation, safety and economic efficiency. At the decision of a problem of reproduction of nuclear fuel the problem of realisation of the necessary neutron balance in system strongly becomes complicated.

  15. User requirements Basic principals Guides, rules • INS: • NFC enterprises • Thermal reactors • Fast reactors • Burner reactors Fission products, Useful radio nuclides, Energy U-235 U-238 Th-232 Non nuclear recourses

  16. “Zero” approach of Innovation Nuclear System Multi-component nuclear power system with closed fuel cycle for all actinides, including Pu and dangerous long-lived fission products (principle of coexistence)

  17. Reactors tasks • thermal power reactors - minimization of the plutonium equilibrium quantities in the NPS, wide field of application • fast reactors - provision of neutrons balance in the NPS • molten-salt reactors - minimization of the minor actinides quantity in the NPS

  18. Scenario GAINS: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100 Closed fuel cycle with recycling of uranium Increased burn up in LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Cosumption of natural uranium up to 2100 30 million t Consumption of natural uranium 650000 t/year and separation work 800 MSWU in 2100 (In 10 times more in comparison with 2007 year) Capacity of fuel reprocessing : 2050г:-20000 tSF/year 2100г.-40000 tSF/year

  19. Scenario GAINS: 1500GW in 2050; 5000GW in 2100 FBR-S: BR=1.05 Increased burn up in LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Cosumption of natural uranium up to 2100 17 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t Maximum of consumption of natural uranium in 2100г at level 40000 t/year. (In 7 times more in comparison with 2007г) Volume of fuel reprocessing: 2050г:-20000 tSF/year 2100г.-60000 tSF/year

  20. Scenario GAINS: 1500GW in 2050 5000GW in 2100 BN-1800: BR=1.2 Burn up LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Consumption of natural uranium up to 2100 15.5 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t Volume of processing of fuel: 2050г:-20000 tSF/year 2100г.-60000 tSF/year

  21. Scenario GAINS: 1500GW in 2050 5000GW in 2100 FBR-S: BR=1.4 Burn up LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Consumption of natural uranium to 2100 4.25 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t Volume of fuel reprocessing : 2050г:-40000 tSF/year 2100г.-100000 tSF/year

  22. Scenario GAINS: 1500GW in 2050 5000GW in 2100 FBR-S: BR=1.6 Raised burning out LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Consumption of natural uranium up to 2100 4.25 million t in comparison with an open fuel cycle of 30 million t Volume of processing of fuel: 2050г:-40000 tSF/year 2100г.-90000 tSF/year

  23. Scenario MAX: 2000GW in 2050 10000GW in 2100 FBR-A: BR=1.6 Burn up LWR-M – 60 GWd/t Surplus Pu is used in LWR-MOX Consumption of natural uranium up to 2100 15.5 million t Volume fuel reprocessing : 2050г:-20000 tSF/year 2010г.-60000 tSF/year

  24. Scenario MAX: 2000GW in 2050 10000GW in 2100 Specific natural U consumption in INS per GWe, t/year

  25. Model special features for regional analysis • Traditional methodology: • Input of power growth, • - Costs for different energy resources and technologies. • - Different variant calculations and their comparisons. • Simulation modeling: • - modelingof independent dynamicprocesses • - functional bonds are established between the processes. • - modeling of interregional flows of resources and products

  26. Researches has the following purposes: - definition ofprobable system development tendencies; - energy system structure in global and regional scale; - main functional elements of the system development; - uncertainties estimation (including modeling)

  27. 10879 мil. toe 3862 мil. toe 1965 year 2006year Consumption of energy and distribution of people depending on specific consumption of primary power sources(oil, gas, coal, hydro, nuclear…)

  28. The forecast of GlobalEnergy growth Rates of growth delay of developing countries, Stabilization of energy consumptionin industrialized countries The minimal needs for power resources, billions toe Alignment of the developed and developing countries Growth of the population

  29. Whether the NE can provide a backlog demand? Mtoe Forecast 2000ГВт Forecast 2005 year 1000 GW Forecast 2000 year 370 GW Production of 1000 GW yearof electricity needs 1700 Mlntoe.

  30. Energy consumption Primary energy Recourses (oil, gas, coal) The goods of initial repartition with the energy accumulated in them (metal, chemical fertilizers at all) Country 1 Country 2 The Goods of final consumption with the energy accumulated in them (TV, Cars, machine tools, at all E cons=R prod –R export + R import –G export +G import

  31. EnergyBalance for Russia Oil, Gas, Coal 547 mil. toe Russia 1176 mil. toe World Al , steel, chemical fertilizersat all 210 mil. toe Total exports of energy(65%)

  32. Specific energyconsumption in the world Consumption of primary energy resources Energy consumption

  33. Ratio of productioncosts: final consumption to the initial stages

  34. Rates of growth of world gross national product

  35. Regional structure of world gross national product

  36. Fig. 7. World primary energy production

  37. World primary energy production Natural gas, Mtoe Oil, Mtoe Coal, Mtoe Hydro, Mtoe Biomass AND waste, Mtoe Renewables, Mtoe Nuclear energy, Mtoe Nuclear energy, GW

  38. Primary energy production by regions

  39. Regional Nuclear Energy power capacity, GW(e)

  40. Regional Nuclear Energy power capacity, GW(e)

  41. Impact of development of Russian NEon the European GDP GDP- decreasing OR Coal- increasing

  42. Different phases of NP development, 2010 – 2030, GWe Стратегические этапы развития АЭ, ГВт2010-2030 2012 – VVER-M, 60GWd/t 2018 – BN-small line (4-6 GW) 2020 – VVER-S, nat.U – 130 t/GWy 2027 – BR-S, excess Pu 270kg/GWy BR-S line of small BNs VVER-S BN-800 VVER-2006M VVER-2006 VVER-1000 RBMK VVER-440

  43. Different phases of NP development, 2030 – 2050,GWe 2030 - HTGR for industrial heat and hydrogen Production HTGR BR-S VVER-S

  44. Looking beyond 2050, CWe 2050 – VVER-S, MOX 2060 – BR-S, Th in blankets 2065 – HTGR, Th-U233 NFC HTGR (Th-U) BR-S (U-Pu-Th) HTGR-U BR-S (U-Pu) VVER-S (MOX)

  45. Fuel cycle development Separation work, Mln SWU/year Natural U, thousand tone/year Export Export Russia Russia Capacity of SNF reprocessing plants, Tones per year Integrated consumption of natural uranium for Basic NP development scenario till 2050 - 500 thousand tones

  46. Boundary conditions of INS development in 21 Century : • International projects (INPRO, Generation 4, GNEP, international NFC centers), new opportunities for use of global experience and large scales of involved resources • Globalization of the markets of energy and finance: economic risks; political risks • The end of great geological discovery epoch - rise in price of uranium and all other resources • Complication and increase in scales of the systems demanding the qualified highly paid staff (demographic restrictions) • Creation of integral systems - « from cradle to grave»

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