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Delaware Source Water Collaborative May 8, 2014

The National Water Census * Part of the Initiative Overview of the Delaware River Basin Focus Area Study Jeffrey M Fischer fischer@usgs.gov 609-771-3953. Delaware Source Water Collaborative May 8, 2014.

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Delaware Source Water Collaborative May 8, 2014

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  1. The National Water Census * Part of the InitiativeOverview of the Delaware River Basin Focus Area StudyJeffrey M Fischerfischer@usgs.gov609-771-3953 Delaware Source Water Collaborative May 8, 2014

  2. Objective of the Water Census: To place technical information and tools in the hands of stakeholders, allowing them to answer two primary questions about water availability:Does the Nation have enough freshwater to meet both human and ecological needs?Will this water be present to meet future needs?

  3. Water Availability AnalysisThe process of determining the quantity and timing-characteristics of water, which is of sufficient quality, to meet human and ecological needs.Technical InformationSocio-economic ConsiderationsLegal ConsiderationsRegulatory ConsiderationsPolitical ConsiderationsUSGS only deals with the Technical Information!

  4. Provide Enhanced Information On: Daily ET from Satellite Data Streamflow Evapotranspiration (ET) Ecological Flow Needs Groundwater Water Use and Consumption • Thermoelectric Power • Irrigation • Public Supply Information available at: http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus Thermoelectric Consumptive Use

  5. Information DeliveryA web application for delivering water availability information at scales that are relevant to the user Select the area of interest. Generate information on water accounting components. Work with the online tool to construct your water budget. Access trend information.

  6. Example from French Creek Beta version available on line in next few weeks http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus

  7. Focused Water Availability AssessmentsTesting grounds for the National Water Census Groundwater Resources Water Quality Water Use Surface Water Trends, Precipitation, etc State, Local, Regional Stakeholder Involvement Global Change Eco Flows Defined Technical Questions to be Answered

  8. Jeff Fischer, Susan Hutson, Jonathan Kennen, Kelly Maloney, Marla Stuckey, Tanja Williamson, Ward Freeman, And many more Delaware River Basin Focus Area StudyUSGS Water Census Study Started in 2012 and will conclude in 2015

  9. Stakeholder Results – Areas of Study • Water Use – Improved acquisition, management, and integration of water-use and water-supply data. • Robust Hydrologic Model – Evaluate growth of population centers, effects of land-use change, and effects of climate variability and climate change on water resources • Ecological Water Needs – Development of ecological-flow science for main stem & tributaries. • Evaluate flow alteration effects for ungaged tributaries. • Improve decision support tool on main stem Today’s talk focuses on Water Use and development of the Hydrologic Model.

  10. Delaware River Basin Water Use Temporal framework • Base year 2010 • Multiple years as available • 2005-2010 NJ and PA Water-use transactions • Withdrawals • Type of use • Return flows • Interbasin transfers • Aquifer Storage and Recovery Susan HutsonKristin LinseyRuss LudlowBetzaida ReyesJennifer Shourds Data Collection

  11. Delaware River Basin Water Use • 26,135site-specific data records • single and multiple years • 6,343 unique sites include 5 interbasin transfers • Areal estimates Data Collection

  12. Total Water Use*7,000 Mgal/d 8% Groundwater 4,900 Mgal/d (70%) Thermoelectric Power Generation 1,600 Mgal/d (23%) Public supply and Self-supplied domestic 290 Mgal/d (4%) Industrial, Commercial, and Mining 200 Mgal/d (3%) Irrigation, Livestock, and Aquaculture * • Hydroelectric power is an “in stream" use and is not included in this calculation.

  13. Thermoelectric 4,900 Mgal/d Withdrawals, in Mgal/d GW 0 SW >0 - 10 10 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 Fresh 40% 300 - 3100 60% Saline

  14. Public Supply and Self-Supplied Domestic Withdrawals1,600 Mgal/d • Public supply withdrawals • 1,500 Mgal/d • 650 Mgal/d transferred out of basin • Self-supplied Domestic Withdrawals • 120 Mgal/d SW GW

  15. Public Supply Public Supply Public Supply Public Supply Withdrawals TransfersWater Use Withdrawals,in Mgal/d 0 1 - 10 10 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 1000

  16. Determining Self-Supplied DomesticJack Monti and Jason Finkelstein Domestic use data not collected by U.S Census since 1990. Developed current domestic use estimates from: USGS National Water Use Information Program County use data every 5 years; 1985-2005 Estimates of total population served U.S. Census Decadal data on population and housing units Block groups and blocks were analyzed 1990 census provided source of water information per block group housing units

  17. Statistical Determination of Domestic UseBuck County, PA Example Used population density 95th percent value to forecast/predict future years. 100 percent domestic self supply Top five % flip to public supply 100 percent public supply

  18. Example for Sussex County, Delaware Predicted population for P.S. blocks in 2000 (light and dark purple): 83,819 1990 Population of P.S. block groups (pink): 53,521 2000 Water-use Program P.S. population : 78,420 1990 Water-use Program P.S. population : 54,430

  19. Basin-Wide Decadal Predictions 2010 2000 1990

  20. Basin-Wide Results *Population totals not fully apportioned to Delaware River Basin extent (Total includes parts of counties not fully in basin)

  21. Industrial, Commercial,and Mining 290 Mgal/d Industrial, Commercial, & Mining • Industrial • 240 Mgal/d • Commercial • 34 Mgal/d • Mining • 18 Mgal/d Withdrawals,inMgal/d 0 1 - 10 10 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 1031 SW GW

  22. Agriculture Agriculture200 Mgal/d* Irrigation 170 Mgal/d Livestock 9.2 Mgal/d Aquaculture 18 Mgal/d Withdrawals,inMgal/d 0 1 - 10 10 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300 300 - 1031 SW GW * 60 percent of total was reported values

  23. Rasterizing Estimated Livestock & Irrigation Data Combined: • 2010 USDA Crop Data Layer-CDL • 2010 USGS county livestock or irrigation use data And distributed by land use over county

  24. Water Use Data Compilation & Dissemination USGS SIR Report 2014 Web-portal data delivery 8-digit subbasin data and methods 12-digit subbasin data 13 subbasins 426 subbasins Report out by end of calendar year Web tool available in 2015

  25. Estimating Streamflow • Tool for predicting flow at ungaged basins based on correlation with historic flow at gaged sites – Marla Stuckey • Hydrologic model to evaluate how water stressors such as population growth, land-use change, and climate change affect the availability of water resources – Tanja Williamson • Both models are used in current evaluations and future predictions of ecological flow needs – Jonathan Kennen

  26. WATER Hydrologic Model Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) • Used as a decision support tool to evaluate how water stressors such as population growth, land-use change, and climate change affect the availability of water resources. • Model encompasses the whole non-tidal Delaware River Basin. • Validated using precipitation, water-use, streamflow, and other information for the time period 2001 to 2011. • Simulations of future streamflow and water-availability conditions centered on 2030 and 2060 will incorporate projected changes in water use, land use, and climate in the watershed. Tanja N. Williamson, Jeremiah Lant, Elizabeth Nystrom, Scott Hoffman, and Hugh Nelson

  27. WATER Hydrologic Modelbased on TOPMODEL • TOPography-based hydrological MODEL • Developed by Beven and Kirkby, 1979 • “Physically-based watershed model that simulates the variable-source-area concept of streamflow generation.” (Wolock, 1993) • Three fundamental assumptions • steady-state recharge to the groundwater • hydraulic gradient of the water table ≈ the surface slope • transmissivity profile decreases exponentially with depth Beven, K.J. and M.J. Kirkby. 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin, v. 24, pp. 43-69. Wolock, David M. 1993. Simulating the variable-source-area concept of streamflow generation with the watershed model TOPMODEL. USGS WRI 93-4124.

  28. Qout Precipitation Infiltration Water Budget Saturated Areas or Impermeable Surface Sub-surface flow Direct Over-land flow ET Evaporation

  29. TOPMODEL topographic wetness index Grid cells with the same TWI are hydrologically similar Calculations need not be performed on every single grid cell. High values of TWI  High potential for saturation Low values of TWI  Low potential for saturation

  30. Soil Characteristics

  31. WATER – A decision support tool Landscape Characterization Precipitation Record or Forecast Current Condition Gaged Streams Validated Model Simulated Hydrograph Scenarios Potential Uses Flow at ungaged sites Current conditions Changed climate Water availability Land management and water allocation decisions Landscape change

  32. TWI Resolution of Spatial Layers Histogram of TWI Precipitation Record Ksat WATER- TopModel NLCD

  33. Incorporate Water-Use Data • Withdrawals • Returns/Discharges • Transfers Representative Values • Long-term Median • Seasonal Data distributed over HUC 12 Basins. This will protect privacy information Seasonal Contribution to Annual Total 426 basins 12.48 km2 to 270.06 km2 Percent of 2010 Total Permit Number

  34. Model Validation • Minimally impacted basins • 1.5 to 675 km2 (0.6 to 261 mi2) • Comparison of streamflow estimates • USGS streamflow data • Evaluate potential bias in water budget • Snowpack • PET Sites will also be valuable for evaluating future land use change scenarios.

  35. Reservoir Management System Initial work focusing on basin areas upstream of reservoirs. Ultimately: • WATER will export long-term record of flow in OASIS format • Use OASIS for points downstream of reservoirs • Non-OASIS users will use lake delay

  36. Snowpack Simulation – Upper Basin Flow Snow

  37. Simulation of Evapotranspiration Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) – Hamon (1963) Simulated Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) – limited by soil-moisture availability

  38. For Future Hydrologic Predictions WATER Model Needs Projections of Changes in: • Water Use • Climate • Land Use (subject of next talk)

  39. Future: Global Circulation Models (GCM) Modeled Area Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 GCMs Previously used in the basin • NCAR CCSM • GFDL ESM2G, NOAA • GISS-E2-H, NASA • CGCM4-CanES Change factor (delta) approach Target time periods • 2030 • 2060 Representative Concentration Pathways • RCP4.5 • RCP8.5 3736 basins 10 km2 GCM Area 6 – 10 Cells 100 – 200 km2

  40. RCP scenario conditions

  41. At Conclusion of the Delaware Study • Database of water withdrawal, use, and return flow information for watersheds • Tool to estimate daily streamflow from 1960 to 2010 for ungaged streams • Hydrologic model of the non-tidal portions of the watershed tributaries • Flow and aquatic assemblage response relations for tributaries • An updated Decision Support System for sections of the main-stem Delaware Jeff Fischer Fischer@usgs.gov 609-771-3953

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