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F.O.F.E.M. 5 First Order Fire Effects Module

F.O.F.E.M. 5 First Order Fire Effects Module. Adapted from: Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory Systems for Environmental Management. What is a “first-order” effect?. “First-order effects” are the immediate consequences of a fire . Second-order effects?? Longer term effects

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F.O.F.E.M. 5 First Order Fire Effects Module

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  1. F.O.F.E.M. 5First Order Fire Effects Module Adapted from: Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory Systems for Environmental Management

  2. What is a “first-order” effect? • “First-order effects” are the immediate consequences of a fire. • Second-order effects?? • Longer term effects • Involve interaction with other agents • Vegetation dynamics, insect-caused mortality, climate and weather, erosion • Examples: Tree regeneration, plant succession, site productivity Fuel consumption Smoke production Tree mortality Soil heating

  3. FOFEM 5 is used to… QuantifyFire Effects (Severity) vs. Fire Behavior (Intensity). • Assess wildfire and prescribed fire impacts. • Ex. how many trees can we expect to survive? • Ex. how many centimeters of soil were exposed to lethal temperatures? • Predict the effects of a current fire. • Ex. How much smoke will be produced? • Design fire and silvicultural prescriptions. • Ex. Under what moisture conditions can we reduce duff by 30%? • Ex. How many acres can burn without exceeding particulate limits?

  4. How FOFEM works • FOFEM compiles fire effects data and models from the literature. • FOFEM 5 automatically uses the best available equation or model. • Creates default inputs for vegetation and fuel types – so the user doesn’t have to collect data.

  5. FOFEM 5: Tree mortality • By species and size • 207 tree species • Estimates bark thickness from species and diameter. • Predicts mortality from bark thickness, crown scorch. • Mortality algorithm does not account for: • season of burn, post-burn insect attack, drought, or resid. time

  6. Choose region Set fire severity Select “mortality” Define tree list Set fire intensity Tree mortality: inputs

  7. Tree mortality: outputs PROBABILITY OF MORTALITY FOR EACH SPECIES/DIAMETER Species Diameter Number Prob Mort Equ Code (inch) Trees Mort Number _____________________________________________ PSEMEN 1 300 1.00 1 PSEMEN 8 100 0.39 1 PINPON 20 25 0.07 1 STAND TREE MORTALITY Percent mortality: 49 Number of trees killed by the fire: 341 Average tree diameter of firekilled trees: 1.9 Percent mortality for trees 4+ in DBH: 23 Total prefire number of trees: 425

  8. FOFEM 5: Fuel consumption • Inputs needed: • Fuel load by size class (1,10,100,1000 hr fuels, etc.) • Fuel moisture • Outputs generated: • Fuel consumption by size class • Post-burn fuel load

  9. Select “Fuel” Select region & classifica-tion Select cover type Select fuel category Set fuel load adjustments Fuel Consumption: inputs • Fuel load

  10. Set percent crown fuel burned Set season of burn Set percent 3”+ load that is rotten Fuel Consumption: inputs • Fuel load Or you can input fuel load data directly.

  11. Choose moisture condition Fuel Consumption: inputs • Fuel moisture • Moisture condition (very dry, dry, moderate, wet) Or, you can input fuel moisture directly

  12. Fuel Consumption: outputs • Graph and report of pre-burn and post-burn fuel data.

  13. FOFEM 5: Smoke production • Predicts emission production rate. • Gives proportion of flaming versus smoldering combustion • Estimates production of: • PM10: affects visibility • PM2.5: trapped in human lungs • CO2, CH4, NOx, SOx, CO: greenhouse gases

  14. Select “Smoke” FOFEM 5: Smoke production • Inputs needed: • Fuel load by size class • Fuel moisture • (Same as fuel consumption) • Outputs generated: • Smoke production over time for each emission molecule • Flaming and smoldering combustion

  15. Smoke emissions: outputs • Graph and tabular report of smoke production by component.

  16. FOFEM 5: Soil heating • Soil heating model: • predicts time, temperature, depth profiles

  17. Select “Soil” Choose soil texture Set soil moisture content (percent) Soil heating: inputs • Soil heating inputs are the same as fuel consumption, with two additions…

  18. Soil heating: outputs • Graph and tabular report of soil heating by depth.

  19. FOFEM 5: Strengths • Simple, easy to learn and use. • Can be used for a variety of purposes. • Accommodates variable level of input detail. • Combines physical and empirical models from scientific research. • Creates reports, graphs and data tables that can be incorporated into other documents, including GIS.

  20. FOFEM: Weaknesses • Outputs are only as good as the algorithms and default data in the fire literature. • Some defaults are only based on 2-3 studies • Some inputs are general (ex. moisture = low, medium, high). • Assumes a continuous, complete burn (not patchy), so it may overestimate the effects. • Does not estimate second order effects (ecological interactions) • Forest-centric – only a few grass and shrub models

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