Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development

1. Energy Scenarios for Sustainable Development Nebojsa Nakicenovic International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) naki@iiasa.ac.at 18 February 2002 Conference on Sustainability in Energy Production and Utilization in Brazil: The Next Twenty Years, Unicamps – S. Paulo, Brazil

2. Sustainable Energy Sustainable Energy: Energy that is produced and used in ways that simultaneously support human all development over the long - term in its social, economic, and environmental dimensions

3. MAJOR CHALLENGES • 1.5 billion people < $1 per day • Technology diffusion > 20 years • “Leapfrog rugs of the energy ladder” • Financing energy transformations • Achieving sustainable energy

4. World Economic MapAreas of Regions Proportional to 1990 GDP (mer)

5. GDP 2100 mer GDP 2050 mer Area of Regions Proportional to 1990 GDP mer GDP 1990 mer WORLD ECONOMIC MAP

6. Do Sustainable Energy Futures Exist? Scenario development – thought experiments – is a useful tool in evaluating possible combinations of assumptions that may lead to sustainability The middle course B scenario l Scenario A3 l The “ecologically” driven scenario C1 l

7. Elements of sustainability 1990 Scenario A3 Scenario B Scenario C1 Eradicating poverty Low Very High Medium Very High Reducing relative income gaps Low High Medium Very High Providing universal access to energy Low Very High High Very High Increasing a ffordability of energy Low High Medium Very High Reducing adverse health impacts Medium Very High High Very High Reducing air pollution Medium Very high High Very High Burden of long - lived radionuclides Low Very High Very high Low Limiting GHG emission s Low High Low Very High Diversifying primary energy sources Medium Medium High Low Raising indigenous energy use Medium High Low Very High Improving supply efficiency Medium High Low High Increasing end - use efficiency Low High Medium Very High Accele rating technology diffusion Low Very High Medium High Freedom of international energy trade Medium Very High High Low Sustainable Development Indicators

8. IPCC Special Report IPCC Emissions Scenarios • Extensive literature review • Four narrative storylines • Six modeling frameworks • Forty emissions scenarios • Six illustrative scenarios

9. TS Figure 3

10. Energy Resources • Conventional oil and gas could last at least 50 - 100 years. • Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several hundreds of years • Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times current global energy use

11. Global Primary Energy Requirementsof the IIASA-WEC and IPCC SRES Scenarios Global Primary Energy Use 3000 2500 2000 A1, A2, A3 Primary Energy, EJ 1500 B 1000 C1, C2 500 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

12. 100 80 60 Percent 40 20 0 2000 2050 2100 Global Final Energy by Form Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) A B Liquids C (oil products, methanol/ etha nol) B Solids C (coal, biomass) A

13. Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future • Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the point of end-use in buildings, electric appliances, vehicles, and production processes. • More Renewable Energy: such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal • Advanced Energy Technologies: • next generation fossil fuel technologies • nuclear technologies, if the issues associated with nuclear can be resolved.

15. Excess Sulfur Deposition for an Unabated Coal Scenario gS/m /yr 2 No excess < .1 .1 - .5 .5 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 10 >10 Nakicenovic et.al IIASA 1998

16. Acidification Impacts on Food Cropsfor an Unabated Coal Scenario Percent losses Not assessed No damage < 10% 10 - 33% 33 - 75% > 75% Nakicenovic et.al IIASA 1998

17. Carbon Dioxide Emissionsof the IIASA-WEC and IPCC SRES Scenarios Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Fossil & Industry Baseline scenarios Overlapping area 30 Mitigation sceanrios A2 20 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, GtC A1 B 10 A3 C1, C2 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

18. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

19. Comparing Reasons for Concern Global mean warming oC Year I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climate Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities IPCC 2001

20. Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential ofFood Insecure Countries2080s Climate Change Impacts 1 ECHAM4 HadCM2 Fischer et al., IIASA, 2001 CGCM1

21. Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential ofFood Insecure Countries2080s Climate Change Impacts 2 ECHAM4 HadCM2 Fischer et al., IIASA, 2001 CGCM1

22. Investments in Energy Supply Issue: Mobilization of capital for energy supply investments • Investment in energy supply projected at $300 - 500 billion per year for the next 20 years, depending on path chosen • Less than 10% of total overall investments

23. The Innovation Chain • Research and Development • Demonstration projects • Early deployment (cost buy - down) • Widespread dissemination

24. Technological Uncertainties Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)

25. Increasing Capacity • Policy support and institution building • Education and training • Investment - friendly environments that are socially and environmentally responsible • Technological leap - frogging • Consumer credits, micro - finance

26. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/index.html http://www.undp.org/seed/eap/Projects/WEA.html http://www.ipcc.ch/ http://www.sres.ciesin/ naki@iiasa.ac.at