Tools for developing emissions scenarios and quantifying sustainable development impacts

1. Tools for developing emissions scenarios and quantifying sustainable development impacts Global NDC Conference 2019 Lisa Luna and Tessa Schiefer Berlin, 12th June 2019

2. Session goal Learn from each other about available tools and approaches for creating emissions scenarios and quantifying sustainable development benefits www.newclimate.org

3. Agenda • Introductory activity (All, 10 mins) • Tools for scenario analysis and sustainable development impact quantification (NewClimate Institute, 15 minutes) • Insights from Georgia and Mongolia (Maia Tskhvaradze, Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture of Georgia; Batjargal Khandjav, Ministry of Environment and Tourism of Mongolia, 5 minutes each) • Breakout group activity: case discussion (All, 45 minutes) • Group discussion and debrief (All, 20 minutes) www.newclimate.org

4. Tools for developing emissions scenarios and quantifying sustainable development impacts NewClimate Institute Lisa Luna and Tessa Schiefer

5. Driving questions • Where can scenario analysis be applied? • What guidelines exist for scenarios for Biennial Transparency Reports? • What modelling tools could be used to perform this scenario analysis? • What considerations can be used to select a modelling tool? • How can emissions scenario analysis be linked to sustainable development impact quantification? www.newclimate.org

6. 1. Where can scenario analysis be applied? Examples: • Biennial Transparency Reports to the UNFCCC • Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement • Long Term Strategies for the UNFCCC • National planning and goals Canada’s NDC www.newclimate.org

7. 2. What guidelines exist for BTRs? https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/l23_0.pdf www.newclimate.org

8. 3. What modelling tools could be used for scenario analysis? Some examples: TIMES/MARKAL GCAM BALMOREL OSeMOSyS MAED IMAGE PLEXOS MESSAGE GAINS WASP REMIND-MAGPIE EFFECT LEAP HOMER PROSPECTS+ POTEnCIA ENPEP/BALANCE PRIMES www.newclimate.org

9. One example: PROSPECTS+ PROSPECTS+ • User-friendly, open-source, excel-based bookkeeping tool and simplified energy system model • Used to create transparent, bottom-uphistorical and future energy andgreenhouse gas emissions pathways • Based on policy-relevant activity and intensity indicators • For all major emitting sectors (land-use and forestry under development) PROSPECTS+ was developed by NewClimate Institute and the Climate Action Tracker based on the logic of ClimateWorks Foundation’s CTI models https://newclimate.org/2018/11/30/prospects-plus-tool/ www.newclimate.org

10. 4. Considerations when selecting a model User requirements: • Input data requirements • Time needed for training • Availability of training and support • Modelling environment • Licensing requirements Technical: • Sectoral coverage • Gases covered • Ability to model national policies www.newclimate.org

11. 5. How is that linked to sustainable development impact quantification? • Better understanding of how climate action can reinforce the achievement of sustainable development • Support policy makers to achieve greater policy coherence between different objectives • Increase countries’ confidence to put forward more ambitious NDCs and improve political buy-in • Provide guidance to facilitate a just transition www.newclimate.org

12. Toolbox to inform climate action policy making • High-level guidance on how climate mitigation actions can impact the achievement of SDGs SCAN EIM-ES • Quantifies country-level employment impacts of future scenarios for the development of capacity and generation in the electricity sector Framework for analysing the wider economic opportunities of the energy transition on GDP, local investment and trade IND DEV • Accessible methodology for quantifying the health impacts of air pollution from different sources of electricity generation and other fuel combustion AIRPOLIM www.newclimate.org

13. Economic Impact Model-ES × 60% × 33% ÷ $2 www.newclimate.org

14. EIM-ES application (South Africa) $2 www.newclimate.org

15. Breakout groups: case discussion • Proceedings: • Example case is presented • Group brainstorms an approach for the example case • Group identifies open questions • Reporter reports back to main group on approach and one open question (3 minutes) Roles: • Volunteers to work on their case (or example country)? • Note-taker and reporter • Facilitator www.newclimate.org

16. Background information Exampalia is a small country that is getting started on its NDC update. The Ministry of Environment is coordinating the process, but has a limited number of very busy staff. For its most recent National Communication, Exampalia worked with consultants from another country to produce scenarios, but the Ministry of Environment employees weren’t really involved in the modeling, and the Ministry of Energy wasn’t convinced by the results, for example, the projected growth in energy demand and the projected future hydro capacity. For this NDC update, the Ministry of Environment is interested in building in-country modelling capacity to increase continuity and improve stakeholder engagement in scenario development. They also have a number of other documents on the horizon, like a Long-Term Strategy, an update to their National Climate Change Plan (which should include an analysis of sustainable development impacts), and their first Biennial Transparency report. They’d like to be able to align some of this work to improve their efficiency. www.newclimate.org

17. Your task • The Ministry of Environment of Exampalia has approached you to advise them on how to proceed.  They are particularly interested in recommendations on:   • What modelling tools could they use for their scenario analysis and sustainable development impact quantifications?  • How they can structure the NDC update process to reflect all stakeholder’s views?  • Should they try to build modelling capacity within the Ministry of Environment, or within another research institute or university in the country?  • How can they streamline work on the NDC update, National Climate Change Plan, Long Term Strategy, and Biennial Transparency Report to reduce the overall workload?  • What challenges or pitfalls might they expect and how can they work around these?  • What kind of international support could they seek for training?  www.newclimate.org

18. Tessa Schiefer t.schiefer@newclimate.org

19. SCAN-tool www.newclimate.org

20. SCAN-tool www.newclimate.org

21. AIRPOLIM-ES Emissions Annual and lifetime emissions for: PM2.5 NOx SO2 Health Impacts Annual and lifetime premature deaths for: Lung cancer Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Ischemic heart disease Stroke www.newclimate.org

22. AIRPOLIM-ES application (Kenya) www.newclimate.org

23. EIM-ES application (Argentina) SUMMARY OF INPUTS RESULTS $2 www.newclimate.org