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Alliance Trust PLC Global Economic Outlook

Alliance Trust PLC Global Economic Outlook. Dr. Shona Dobbie Chief Economist 1 May 2014. US – fiscal position. US federal government budget. US federal debt vs GDP. Outlays. Nominal GDP. $ trillion. $ trillion. Debt outstanding. Receipts. Source: Macrobond.

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Alliance Trust PLC Global Economic Outlook

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  1. Alliance Trust PLCGlobal Economic Outlook Dr. Shona DobbieChief Economist 1 May 2014

  2. US – fiscal position US federal government budget US federal debt vs GDP Outlays Nominal GDP $ trillion $ trillion Debt outstanding Receipts Source: Macrobond

  3. US – profits vs employee compensation Employeecompensation (LHS) Corporateprofits (RHS) Source: Macrobond

  4. US – quantitative easing Federal reserve assets $ trillion Source: Macrobond

  5. Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$ Russia Brazil Index Turkey Rebased end June 2013 = 100 Source: Macrobond

  6. Emerging markets – currency moves vs US$ Russia Brazil Turkey Index Ukraine Rebased end June 2013 = 100 Source: Macrobond

  7. China – shadow banking Trust and Entrusted Loans Equity Financing Loans in Foreign Currencies Loans in Local Currency Corporate Bonds Net Financing Bank’s Acceptance Bills Yuan trillion Source: Macrobond

  8. China – economic structure and growth Breakdown of GDP World bank urban population rates 47.5 Household consumption 42.5 China Percent Percent 37.5 Japan United States United Kingdom Germany Fixed Investment 32.5 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: Macrobond

  9. Japan – ‘Abenomics’ Monetary base Yen and stock market Yen/Dollar(RHS) Yen, trillion Index Yen TOPIX (LHS) Source: Macrobond

  10. Europe – unit labour costs Jan 2000 = 100 End 2008 = 100 Germany Italy Ireland Spain Spain Italy Ireland Germany Source: Macrobond

  11. Europe – inflation rates 4.0 Italy 3.0 2.0 Percent Germany France 1.0 Spain 0.0 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Source: Macrobond

  12. UK – labour market recovery UK unemployment rate UK employment Self employed(RHS) Total (LHS) Source: Macrobond

  13. UK – house price growth UK – Halifax house price index Nationwide house prices London YoY growth Scotland MoM growth Source: Macrobond

  14. US – food prices Food price inflation Monthly food price moves Oranges Citrus fruits Pork chops Eggs Butter Eggs Beef steaks Butter Source: Macrobond

  15. Important information • Alliance Trust PLC is a self-managed investment company with investment trust status. It is one of the largest generalist UK investment trusts by market value on the London Stock Exchange. • Alliance Trust Investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are subsidiaries of Alliance Trust PLC. • The Economic Research Centre is part of Alliance Trust and was formed to carry out economic and social analysis to deepen our understanding of economies, markets and socio-economic issues. The views, statements, opinions, information and data contained in this publication are those of the Alliance Trust Economic Research Centre, these views may change as subsequent conditions vary. • Information used in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been independently verified: no representation has been made to its accuracy or completeness, no reliance should be placed on it and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. • This publication should not be used or considered as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument and is for information purposes only. This publication is not a financial promotion or recommendation to make any particular investment. Alliance Trust PLC, Alliance Trust investments Limited and Alliance Trust Savings Limited are not authorised to give financial advice.

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