WASCAL MRP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna

1. A MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE CAPACITY BUILDING IN WEST AFRICA: THE CASE OF WASCAL Okhimamhe, A. A. (PhD) WASCAL MRP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna P. M. B. 65 Minna Niger state Nigeria

2. OUTLINEOF PRESENTATION 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Climate Change in Nigeria - Myth or Reality? 3.0 Climate change in Nigeria – Challenges 4.0 Climate change in Nigeria - Opportunities for climate change education: The case of West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL)

3. INTRODUCTION

4. INTRODUCTION • Paris 2015 Climate Change agreement (COP 21): • In its 5th assessment report published in 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirmed the fact that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely (>95 per cent) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” • In acknowledgement of the fact that global warming, if not mitigated, will gradually increase global temperature to unprecedented levels, the global community, in the recently concluded 21st United Nations Framework for Climate Change Convention’s Conference of Parties (UNFCCC COP) that held in Paris agreed to “hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. • Furthermore, “the Parties recognize that adaptation is a global challenge faced by all with local, subnational, national, regional and international dimensions, and that it is a key component of and makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems…”.

5. Global surface temperature was record warm in 2015, moving ahead of the record set in 2014 by 0.29°F—the largest margin by which one year has ever beaten another since official records began in 1880. • In all of NOAA’s 137 years of climate data record keeping, the past 13 months, have been a reflection of this continued increase in temperature. Currently, May 2016 is regarded as the warmest ever in the period within 1880 – 2016 or 1,637 months on record. • In its State of the Climate Report, NOAA (2016) stated that the combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces showed a global increase in temperature of 1.22°C above the 20th century average of 12.7°C; and average global land surface temperatures have risen by 2.33°C above the 20th century average of 3.2°C. • Retrieved from www.noaa.gov/climate

6. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY • Adefolalu (1986) examined trends in rainfall patterns between 1911 and 1980 from twenty-eight synoptic weather stations by Adefolalu (1986); He observed a general decrease of dry season contribution to annual rainfall. • Most of these earlier studies focused more on the use of rainfall data to imply dryness e.g. recent studies showing that Africa has been drier in the last few decades (Nicholson et al., 2000; L'Hóte et al., 2002; Oguntunde et al., 2006). • WMO affiliated NIMET (2008) studied temperature and rainfall data using 60 year (1941 – 2000), the following changes were highlighted: • Many parts of the country experienced delayed onset and cessation of rains leading to shortened length of the rainy season in 1971 – 2000; • Annual rainfall amount decreased from 2 – 8 mm across the country, while increasing by 2 – 4 mm in coastal areas like Port Harcourt. . • With the exception of Jos where slight cooling occurred, average temperature increased by 1.4 – 1.9 °C in most parts of the country, especially in the extreme northeast (e.g. Maiduguri), extreme northwest (e.g. Sokoto) and extreme southwest (Benin City).

7. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY • DFID (2009) predicted future climate change in Nigeria using data from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (which is also used in the IPCC assessments) • Best estimate scenario for temperature and rainfall changes in Nigeria for the period 2010 – 2050 • The estimates were calculated from an average of the three different IPCC ‘Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’ (SRES) for West Africa • Within this period, the best estimates showed that average temperature would increase by 0.8 in 2020 to 1.8 in 2050; while average rainfallis expected to increase by 6mm in 2020 and 14mm in 2020 • It is expected that zonal variations would lead to varying effects that would either be increase in desert-like conditions or increase in rainfall

8. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY • On behalf of BNRCC, Abiodun et al., (2011) used baseline temperature and rainfall data for 1971 – 2000 covering forty synoptic stations for trend analysis and for downscaling of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations • Highlights of changes that occurred include: • Current Situation: • Maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.4ºC and 0.8ºC respectively; • The incidence of heat waves has increased by more than 20 days over the period; • Rainfall was found to increase in most ecological zones of Nigeria between 1971 and 2000, totaling approximately 6 mm day-1 per year; • Future Situation: • Two future climate change scenarios, A2 and B1, assume that future development will follow economic and regional considerations and a predominance of environmental and global considerations

9. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY • In 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, number of rain days, days with extreme rainfall and flooding are projected to increase over most ecological zones, except in the northeast zone, where the A2 scenario suggests fewer extreme events related to flooding and rainfall. • Cervigni (2013) built on Abiodun et al. (2011) using simulated models, thus predicting that temperature will be higher by 1–2 degrees in 2056-2065 with the extreme north having the highest values; • This will be more evident in December to February, whereby temperatures in the north central part of Nigeria will increase by up to 3.5°C

10. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES • For developing countries like Nigeria, the key solutions will be to reduce impact on livelihoods; reduce carbon emissions; generate financial resources for adaptation; while the opportunities created include investments in: • health infrastructures and facilities; • education infrastructures and facilities; • adaptation and mitigation technology, • early warning systems, • green public transportation; and • strengthening regional cooperation for green technology transfer (UNDESA 2012); • It is cheaper to incorporate these investments into national planning in all sectors now, rather than later, in order to ensure sustainability and resilience, and reduce the cost of adaptation, in preparation for the climate conditions of the future

11. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES • WASCAL… • Objectives • aims at strengthening the research, educational and policy capacity and competence of West-African countries… • to deal with issues of climate change through adapted land use on a scientific basis… • in partnership with German institutions (research institutes, universities). Participating West African Countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’ Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, The Gambia, Togo

12. Operational structure of WASCAL

13. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES Graduate Research Programs (GRP): Regional universities were encouraged to work together and with counterpart institutions in Germany to establish above-average GRPs; • The idea is based on an analysis of the West African university landscape: • few countries in the region have the critical mass to establish a GRP that will attract the best talent from within the region, • to be attractive, academic environments need to be offered that are competitive regarding teaching facilities and research opportunities. • Graduate research programs identified by regional policy makers: • African Climate Systems (Nigeria) • Climate Change and Water Resources (Benin) • Climate Change Economics (Sénégal) • Climate Change and Land Resources (Ghana) • Climate Change and Agriculture (Mali) • Climate Change and Biodiversity (Côte d'Ivoire) • Climate Change and Human Security (Togo) • Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (Nigeria) • Climate Change and Energy (Niger) • Climate Change and Education (The Gambia)

14. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES Structure of a Graduate Research Program • The GRPs/MRPs are based at a university campus (lead university) of one of the participating countries; • Each GRP/MRP admits10 doctoral students per year (2/3 Batches); • Participating universities select the Lead Universities based on existing programs, staff strength, regional partnership, etc. • Lecturers from the Lead University, Partner Universities of the region and Germany are selected to teach courses and supervise students’ thesis research. • The Lead University awards the doctoral or master’s degree. However, an Advisory Board composed of representatives of Partner and German Universities agrees on the curriculum, the criteria for faculty membership, allocation of courses, etc... • 4 GRPs (Oct 2011); 4 MRPs/GRPs (Oct 2012); 2 MRPs (Oct 2013)

15. FUTM NIGERIA KNUST GHANA FUTA NIGERIA FUTM NIGERIA

16. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES Selected Milestones PARTNERSHIP is an important component of the WASCAL Graduate Studies Program: • Universities, Research Institutions, National Services in West Africa (22 universities) • International and Sub-regional Organizations: CILSS/AGRHYMET, ACMAD, UNEP, 2iE etc) • German Universities and Research Institutions: about 10 universities and research centers collaborate with the GSP.

17. THANKS FOR LISTENING WASCAL MRP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna P. M. B. 65 Minna Niger state Nigeria