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Number of recorded murders per month, 1994-99. % individuals experiencing crime, by age (1997). % of victims who knew the offender. Number of recorded assaults per month, 1994-99. Crime rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001. Murder rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001.
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Reasons for high crime levels & future scenarios • Period of transition • Cycles of violence • Proliferation of firearms • Organised crime • Rapid urbanisation & income inequality • Youthful population • Weak criminal justice system
Conviction rate (all offences) per 100,000 of the population, 1995/96
CJS Performance • Cases recorded in 2000 • 2 575 617 • Cases referred to court • 609 928 (24%) • Convictions: 211 762 (8%)
No. of prosecutions, convictions, referrals and crimes recorded
Future crime scenario: Positive developments • More effective criminal justice system, dependant on: • Communication • Credibility • Capacity • Focus of law enforcement & legislation on organised crime • Transitional period ending • Slowdown in urbanisation rate
Future crime scenario: Unknown • Proliferation of firearms • Firearms Control Act • Developments in Angola and DRC • Eastward NATO expansion
Future crime scenario: Negative developments • Cycles of violence • Changing age demographics • Effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic
Conclusion • Decline of crime where impact of criminal justice system is strong • Continued high level of crimes driven by ‘culture of violence’ • Increase in certain crimes because of HIV/AIDS epidemic • Greater state, private sector and civil society partnership needed
Thank you! Institute for Security Studies http://www.iss.co.za Sources used: Interpol SAPS CIAC www.saps.gov.za Stats SA national Victims of Crime Survey, 1999