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Russian Foreign Policy P.Sc . 243

Russian Foreign Policy P.Sc . 243. “Russians idolize the past, hate the present and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov. Student Responsibilities. Clickers quizzes Research Assignment Final Exam Diligent (100%) reading, preparation, attendance, participation.

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Russian Foreign Policy P.Sc . 243

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  1. Russian Foreign PolicyP.Sc. 243 “Russians idolize the past, hate the present and fear the future.” Anton Chekhov

  2. Student Responsibilities • Clickers quizzes • Research Assignment • Final Exam • Diligent (100%) reading, preparation, attendance, participation

  3. Pre-Soviet Foreign Policy • Concert of Europe • Traditional enemies: north/south • Key to military: “technology” • Construction of EMPIRE • War with Japan • World War I

  4. Revolution: Foreign Policy Dimensions • Mil. leadership embarrassed • Marxist ideology: defined enemy • Ideology rejected states/nations • “Workers of the World Unite” • Civil War -- Whites/interventions • Amorphous union: Internationale • USSR (CCCP)

  5. Post-Lenin • Stalin / Trotsky • World Depression / Isolation • Inward turning Central Planning • Purges/all challengers (military) ' • “Socialism in One Country” • Pact with Germany (secret) Baltics, Poland

  6. World War II • Katyn Forest • 1941 Nazis Attack north / south real agenda • near collapse, heroism, desperation • Alliance with West – promises ' • Stalingrad

  7. Teheran, Yalta, Potsdam • Working toward different objectives (Brits, US, Soviets) • “Spheres of Influence” bargain • Linchpin: “Democracy” • Truman & THE BOMB • “Uncle Joe: the schemer” • Iron Curtain

  8. Post-WW II • UNO Advantage: USSR ... • Pol/Econ buffer -- client states • Play ‘hard ball’ in Berlin ‘48 • Test A-Bomb ‘49 • China becomes Communist ‘49 • Ideological antipathy = Cold War • Korean conflict -- gets hot ‘51

  9. Stalin’s Foreign Policy • Abandons ideology self-serving state • Paranoid behavior (elites) • Tightens control EE / other CPs • Disparages Chinese • Leaves no direction at death ‘53

  10. Krushchev’s Secret Speech • Peaceful co-existence • “THAW” • denounces Stalin -- “reformer” • visits US / Nixon to Moscow • Sputnik ‘57 • Castro to power in Cuba ‘59 • Summit with Pres. Kennedy

  11. Kennedy - Khrushchev • Missiles in Turkey • U-2 Shoot-down • Rookies in the White House? • Bay of Pigs • Vienna Summit & “truth” • Khrushchev warns: will make you feel as vulnerable as we feel

  12. Cuban Missile Crisis • High drama • Communication problem • Psychology – zero-sum thinking • Domestic & Foreign “politics” • What qualities to those that prevail ?

  13. Vietnam • Venue change • Domestic politics gets ugly … • Prague Spring; reform pressures ‘68 • Soviet leadership: ' Brezhnev Kosygin (LBJ) • Real complications: Ho, geog, RVN, Chinese & French before

  14. Seventies ... • Nixon & Kissinger • China rapprochement • Carter: “human rights” • Mutual nuclear buildup • Afghanistan ’78, ‘79 • Managing East Europe !! Brezhnev Doctrine & rules

  15. Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty • No CLEAR rules • bilateral relationships; hub • no export of reform; no patterns • no domestic & foreign divergence • no double exposure

  16. Early Eighties ... • Kosygin dead; Brezhnev dying • Andropov / Chernenko leadership • Buildup on cruise-control • Third world adventures (timid) “professional thief” ' • Where have all the believers gone? State proud! • More challenge to manage EE

  17. Thematic shifts ... • Concept: USSR / “Internationale” • Socialism in One Country • Builders of Socialism & Peaceful Co-existence Among Countries with Differing Social Systems • Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty

  18. Gorbachev • Glasnost • Perestroika -- New Union Treaty • NEW THINKING • Perceived problems: treated like pariah non-competitive force = glue holding alliance

  19. NEW THINKING • Soften tone • Create co-operation • arms agreements • seek aid • make state more “typical” • become world “citizen” • NO USE OF FORCE

  20. Questions from SFP … • How ideologically driven was SFP? • Did the structure of the Soviet system influence SFP? • How “aggressive” was SFP? • How central was the military to SFP? • When was force challenged as a basis for SFP? • What was the LEGACY of SFP? • ?

  21. Foreign Policy Structures: Soviet • CC Dept. of International Affairs • Ministry of Foreign Affairs • KGB • Ministry of Defense • “Friendship” Organizations • Ministry of Foreign Trade POLITBURO Council of Ministers

  22. Foreign Policy Structures: Russian • Duma Committees • SVR • Security Council • Foreign Ministry • Defense Ministry • Interdepartmental Committee on Foreign Policy +

  23. Foreign Policy Structures: Russian • PRESIDENT edicts in lieu failed/slow process large scale int’l negotiations control of Security Council memb authoritarian personality • Regionalization / challenge

  24. Official Government Structure Branches of Power

  25. Russian Foreign Policy PLAYERS • DimitryMedvedev, President • Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister • Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs • Nikolai Patrushev, Security Council • Anatoly Serdyukov, Minister of Defense • Director of SVR Foreign Intelligence Agency • Director, GRU Military Intelligence Agency • Director of FSB Federal Security Services • Minister Econ. Dev. & Trade

  26. Capabilities • Military • Economic • Commercial • Diplomatic • Cultural & Scientific • “Mass”

  27. Some domestic factors • Ethnographic Asians, labor, parochialism • Economic Productivity, resources, currency • Political Support, democ, mil, homeostasis, leaders • Attitudinal Non-zero sum, aversion to war, perceived US non-commitment

  28. Politics & Economics ‘90’s • ‘92-’93 politics by default … • the challenge … duma vs. pres. • the new “constitution” • foreign dilemma: support Yeltsin? • Chechnya • Russia in Bosnia & Kosovo • Election ‘95-’96: support Yeltsin? • Massive deterioration ... +

  29. Politics & Economics ‘90’s • August ‘98 Collapse! • Policy drift … • Dec. ‘99 • Jan. ‘00 factors ill indictment maneuver • March ‘00 PUTIN

  30. Models (Cold War remnants) • Détente vs. Linkage • Zero / Non-zero sum thinking • Strategic Indigestibility • Permanent Pre-hostilities • Strategic Ambiguous Equivalence • Parity ? For 21st Century ?

  31. Yeltsin/Kozyrev foreign policy • Prosperity, Stability, Independence • Enhance predictability by following international rules • Dismantle confrontational structures • External relations designed to support domestic development • “Reactive foreign policy”

  32. Kozyrev • “Russia sees no state as hostile to it and will not use force for any purpose other than defense.” • Russian security (operationalized) a function of economics, ecology, demography, energy and health. • Specifics: eliminate tactical nucs support global defense system (GPALS/not SDI) create stable arms control mechanisms

  33. Kozyrev premises … • Multilateralism • Treaty with Japan (peace) • Cooperation with moderate regimes in Middle East • Link with most prosperous LA & African (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Angola, Nigeria & S. Africa) • Gravitate toward democratic states Seeing them as friends

  34. Persistent Russian f.p. debate • Atlanticists – tie future & fortunes to WEST • Eurasianists – variant A tie future to “soviet” sphere East Europe & former republics -- variant B tie future to China & Islamic world

  35. Strategic reflection: Yeltsin & Kozyrev • Russia rejects superpower status because it represents an “effort to decide the world’s destiny” • Russia is a great power based on history, its place in the world and its material and spiritual potential • Russia can become strong by means other than military • “Living without an enemy in foreign policy is difficult for Russians”

  36. Objectives: circa 2000 • increase aid • underline independence • undermine NATO • attract investment • dominate region • create economic dependencies in Central Europe +

  37. Objectives (cont.) • achieve full G-8 status • establish “convertible” ruble • achieve acceptance of “sphere of influence” • embrace requests for re-integration • boost exports • curb outflow of capital

  38. Military CapabilitiesConfiguration of Forces • Air Force, Air Defense, Army, Navy, Strategic Missile Forces • Generic Problems: financial, leadership, manpower force restructuring, materiel • Acute: Chechnya, Black Sea Fleet, Nuclear weapons

  39. Essential Military Realities • First Chechen war ’94 = failure • Yeltsin “reform” of military shoes, pay, one meal a day reduce # generals to 1500 (1/108) raise spending level to Britain • Multi-ethnic confusion • Pilots 10hrs training per year

  40. No major warships at sea • 20,000 nuclear weapons (? functional) • Draft: 11% reporting (many seeking med treatment) • Weapons development thwarted (occasional spasms of image-building) new strategic missile, torpedo, slbm

  41. ARMY • Absence of specialized training • Limitations: terrain, night, urban • Casualty prone tactics; tech sparse • Low morale • Pay problems; manpower (draft) • Soviet breakup reverberations • Spetsnaz; kontraktniks

  42. Air Force • No jet long range bombers • Excellent air combat planes • Problems with training and budgets • Rugged, unrefined approach – pilot focused not tech focused • Career long enlistments 25 yrs • Defense focused • Taran & Night Witches as examples

  43. AIR DEFENSE • Surface to Air (SAM) missiles • Long, Medium & Short range • Airborne Warning & Control Systems (AWACS) • “Early” Warning Radar Systems • Key problems: financial & tech support new boundaries!

  44. Navy • Soviet fleets: Baltic, Pacific, Black Sea • Break-up & crew integrity • Draconian cuts in maintenance & weapons development: Kursk • No rationale for operational global navy • Black Sea fleet; warm water ports • Odessa as key commercial port …

  45. STRATEGIC MISSILE FORCES • Created in 1950s • ICBMs (SS19-24) some from ’60s • Launch on Warning: 9-15 min. • Strike any target in 30 min. • Based in silos, trains, trucks • Topol M newest / SS-27 ?20 • Roughly 700 missiles

  46. Nuclear Arsenal • “raketchiki” • Priority benefits; isolation, patriotism • Danger: early warning systems launch on warning • Security of facilities • Personnel: biorhythms; testing • Implications: key defense; regional capability?

  47. Generalizations about Russian military capability? Implications for us?

  48. PUTIN 2000 • Search for popularity: patriotism order via state tame Chechnya • Igor Ivanov, Foreign Minister • Confront US Missile Defense • Balk at support Balkans/Iraq policy of US gov

  49. Putin Creates DIRECTION … • Longevity … • Aura & commitment in foreign policy • Energize • Key areas: Near Abroad, *Strategic Policy, *Demographics, NATO Chechnya

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